Chris Brockman#36 of 87 NFL pundits · Jul 21, 2025
Brockman argued the Buccaneers, with everyone back on offense, have a real chance at the NFC's No. 1 seed and a path to 13 wins, and that Baker Mayfield is a top-eight quarterback. They also declared the Bengals will win the AFC North, saying a 12-5 record takes the division.
Said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast)Hear the original
What Chris Brockman said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromThe Bucs have a real chance to be the one seed in the NFC.
- Where it was said
- Overreaction Monday (podcast)
- The episode
- The Steelers Will Regret Not Trading TJ Watt
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidJul 21, 2025
- GradedAug 13–17, 2026
- 1Cincinnati Bengals to win the division“The Bengals are winning the AFC North. ... I think twelve and five wins the AFC North.”
- 2Tampa Bay Buccaneers to take the top seed“The Bucs have a real chance to be the one seed in the NFC. Everybody back all 11 on offense.”
- 3Baker Mayfield to finish top 8 at his position, by passing yards“Baker Mayfield, what, top eight quarterbacks?”
- 4Tampa Bay Buccaneers to finish with 13 wins“There's a path to 13 wins for the buck. That's all I'm saying.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals to win the division1 | Division Winners | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers to take the top seed2 | Seeding, Byes and Home Field | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Baker Mayfield to finish top 8 at his position, by passing yards3 | Positional Finishes | Finished #10 | 83.33 | 41.67 | +83.33 | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers to finish with 13 wins4 | Season Win Totals | 8 | 0 | 75 | −150 | |
| 4 calls · 1 hit · 3 misses · all settled | 20.8 | 29.2 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive4 checkable claims — 1 division winner, 1 positional finish, 1 season win total and 1 seeding, byes and home field — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 4 have settled, averaging 20.8 out of 100, against 29.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Where this call stands in the room
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 2025 season · wins8 calls from 6 pundits between 8 wins and 13 wins. Chris Brockman said 13 wins. the room's median is 10 wins. what happened: 8 wins
Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question, before the answer existed. The bar is what actually happened. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.
1Division WinnersCincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals to win the division
VerdictMiss0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- CIN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- BAL
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
2Seeding, Byes and Home FieldTampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to take the top seed
VerdictMiss0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- TB
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- checked as:
- the number one seed is the bye, which the bracket names exactly
- actual tier:
- missed the playoffs
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where they finished last season (host)
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- claimed seed:
- 1
- claimed tier:
- bye
- weeks left when called:
- 18
3Positional FinishesBaker MayfieldTampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield to finish top 8 at his position, by passing yards
What happenedFinished #10called #8 · by passing yards83.33Hit · naive 41.6783.33this call−41.67a naive guess=41.66better than naive×2difficulty=+83.33skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 83.33
- player:
- Baker Mayfield
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 83.33
- baseline:
- 41.67
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- passing yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 3
- actual finish:
- 10
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 8
4Season Win TotalsTampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to finish with 13 wins
What happened8called 130Miss · naive 750this call−75a naive guess=−75worse than naive×2difficulty=−150skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- TB
- naive:
- 9.25
- skill:
- −150
- what happened:
- 8
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 75
- they said:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once
20.8naive 29.2
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Brandon Carney · Trade and Signing Calls · Mike Evans · Miss 0
Carney predicts Geno Smith signs with the Vikings and starts for them, that at least four of the fringe veteran quarterbacks (Tua, Kyler, Cousins, Fields, Geno) will be starters next season, and that Mike Evans stays with Tampa Bay. They also rank their top fantasy wide receivers and comments on running back landing spots and trade values.Dalton Feely · Trade and Signing Calls · Chris Godwin Jr. · Hit 100
Feenie predicted Chris Godwin stays in Tampa Bay, Josh Sweat reunites with Jonathan Gannon in Arizona, Ronnie Stanley signs with New England, Jevon Holland lands in Indianapolis, Khalil Mack joins Washington, Asante Samuel Jr. goes to San Francisco, Najee Harris to the Raiders and Bobby Wagner to Dallas.Eric Mangini · Game Outcome Picks · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Miss 0
Mangini picked New England to beat Green Bay by more than a field goal, flagged Tampa Bay as their upset alert over Chicago, expects Kansas City to handle the Jets, took Buffalo over Minnesota, backed Cincinnati over Atlanta in Madrid, and updated their Super Bowl to Rams–Bengals.Nick Wright · Game Outcome Picks · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Miss 0
Wright argued the Jaguars are the AFC's most complete team, calling them the considerable favorite for the No. 1 seed and the only club essentially locked into the playoffs. They also picked Tampa Bay to upset Chicago, had Kansas City sweeping its next three games, liked New England over Green Bay by about a field goal, and updated their Super Bowl matchup to Chiefs–49ers.Donte Johnson · Game Outcome Picks · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Miss 0
The former NFL safety picked the Buccaneers to upset the Bears in their Week 9 matchup, arguing Todd Bowles' defense would frustrate Caleb Williams.Zac Cornelius · Score Predictions · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Miss 29
Zach projected the Buccaneers to beat the Bears 24-12.
More division winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Daniel DiBerardinis · Division Winners · Atlanta Falcons · Miss 0
Danny D predicts Sonny Styles goes in the top ten (maybe top five), doesn't think Ty Simpson goes before late first round, says Kenyon Sadiq lands with the Rams at 13, and picks the Falcons to win the NFC South while naming the Bengals an AFC bounce-back team. They also give a Final Four of Michigan, Florida, Purdue and Arizona with Michigan winning.Colin Cowherd · Division Winners · New York Giants · Miss 0
Cowherd projects the NFC East with the Giants winning the division ahead of Philadelphia, Washington and Dallas, pegging the Cowboys as a six- or seven-win team. They also expect Malik Willis to land a big free-agent deal, Kayvon Thibodeaux to be moved, and Baltimore to lose Isaiah Likely, and they float the Rams reaching on Ty Simpson late in round one.Colin Cowherd · Division Winners · Los Angeles Chargers · Miss 0
Cowherd unveiled their top 10 NFL teams entering next season, with Seattle first, the Rams second and the Chiefs tenth, and separately picked the Chargers to win the AFC West.Colin Cowherd · Division Winners · Baltimore Ravens · Miss 0
Cowherd likes Jacksonville, Chicago and Pittsburgh (with DK Metcalf back) in the wild-card round, ranks the league's head coaches with McVay first and Ben Johnson seventh, and predicts Lamar Jackson has about two strong years left. They also name the Rams as a possible team to draft a receiver and floats next year's draft having seven first-round quarterbacks.Rich Eisen · Division Winners · Jacksonville Jaguars · Hit 100
Eisen forecast the Week 18 results and the entire wild-card field: Buccaneers over Panthers but Carolina still gets in as the 5 seed when Atlanta beats New Orleans, 49ers over Seahawks, Ravens over Steelers, Jaguars beating Tennessee to win the AFC South, and six wild-card matchups (Seahawks-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Texans-Ravens, Packers-Bears, Chargers-Patriots, Rams-Eagles), with Houston upsetting Baltimore. They also tabbed Saints rookie Tyler Shough as a possible Offensive Rookie of the Year.