Chris Brockman· Jul 21, 2025
Brockman argued the Buccaneers, with everyone back on offense, have a real chance at the NFC's No. 1 seed and a path to 13 wins, and that Baker Mayfield is a top-eight quarterback. He also declared the Bengals will win the AFC North, saying a 12-5 record takes the division.
“The Bucs have a real chance to be the one seed in the NFC.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →
4 checkable claims — 1 division winner, 1 positional finishe, 1 season win total and 1 seeding, byes and home field — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 4 have settled, averaging 20.8 out of 100, against 29.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where this call stands in the room
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 2025 season · wins9 calls from 6 pundits between 8 wins and 13 wins. Chris Brockman said 13 wins. the room's median is 10 wins. what happened: 8 wins
Chris Brockman — 13 winsthe room — 9 calls from 6 punditsmedian 10 winswhat happened — 8 wins
Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question, before the answer existed. The bar is what actually happened. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
4 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Division WinnersCincinnati BengalsJul 21, 2025
Cincinnati Bengals to win the division
“The Bengals are winning the AFC North. ... I think twelve and five wins the AFC North.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- CIN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- BAL
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
- Seeding, Byes and Home FieldTampa Bay BuccaneersJul 21, 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to take the top seed
“The Bucs have a real chance to be the one seed in the NFC. Everybody back all 11 on offense.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- TB
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- checked as:
- the number one seed is the bye, which the bracket names exactly
- actual tier:
- missed the playoffs
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where they finished last season (host)
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- claimed seed:
- 1
- claimed tier:
- bye
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Baker Mayfield to finish top 8 at his position, by passing yards
“Baker Mayfield, what, top eight quarterbacks?”
Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 41.67+83.33 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 83.33
- player:
- Baker Mayfield
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 83.33
- baseline:
- 41.67
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- passing yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 3
- actual finish:
- 10
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 8
- Season Win TotalsTampa Bay BuccaneersJul 21, 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to finish with 13 wins
“There's a path to 13 wins for the buck. That's all I'm saying.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 75-150 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- TB
- naive:
- 9.25
- skill:
- -150
- what happened:
- 8
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 75
- predicted:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Cincinnati BengalsClose · 40Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsHit · 100Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.
- Nate TiceScore Predictions · Cincinnati BengalsClose · 74Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
- Marcus RayScore Predictions · Tampa Bay BuccaneersMiss · 19Marcus predicted a 30-13 Buccaneers win over Cleveland with three touchdowns and three field goals, and picked the Raiders to beat a Jim Harbaugh team to start 2-0.
- Ryan LaVoyScore Predictions · Tampa Bay BuccaneersMiss · 17LaVoy predicted a 28-10 Buccaneers win over the Browns, said even the Falcons would beat Cleveland, and named Detroit, Baltimore and the Rams as teams he expects in the playoffs.
More division winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Daniel DiBerardinisDivision Winners · Atlanta FalconsMiss · 0Danny D predicts Sonny Styles goes in the top ten (maybe top five), doesn't think Ty Simpson goes before late first round, says Kenyon Sadiq lands with the Rams at 13, and picks the Falcons to win the NFC South while naming the Bengals an AFC bounce-back team. He also gives a Final Four of Michigan, Florida, Purdue and Arizona with Michigan winning.
- Colin CowherdDivision Winners · New York GiantsMiss · 0Cowherd projects the NFC East with the Giants winning the division ahead of Philadelphia, Washington and Dallas, pegging the Cowboys as a six- or seven-win team. He also expects Malik Willis to land a big free-agent deal, Kayvon Thibodeaux to be moved, and Baltimore to lose Isaiah Likely, and he floats the Rams reaching on Ty Simpson late in round one.
- Colin CowherdDivision Winners · Los Angeles ChargersMiss · 0Cowherd unveiled his top 10 NFL teams entering next season, with Seattle first, the Rams second and the Chiefs tenth, and separately picked the Chargers to win the AFC West.
- Colin CowherdDivision Winners · Baltimore RavensMiss · 0Cowherd likes Jacksonville, Chicago and Pittsburgh (with DK Metcalf back) in the wild-card round, ranks the league's head coaches with McVay first and Ben Johnson seventh, and predicts Lamar Jackson has about two strong years left. He also names the Rams as a possible team to draft a receiver and floats next year's draft having seven first-round quarterbacks.
- Danny ParkinsDivision Winners · Baltimore RavensMiss · 0Parkins lays the points with the Eagles and Cowboys, takes Baltimore to beat Pittsburgh and win the AFC North, picks Carolina over Tampa Bay and Seattle over San Francisco, and says he'd probably pick the Rams to come out of the NFC.
- Rich EisenDivision Winners · Jacksonville JaguarsHit · 100Eisen forecast the Week 18 results and the entire wild-card field: Buccaneers over Panthers but Carolina still gets in as the 5 seed when Atlanta beats New Orleans, 49ers over Seahawks, Ravens over Steelers, Jaguars beating Tennessee to win the AFC South, and six wild-card matchups (Seahawks-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Texans-Ravens, Packers-Bears, Chargers-Patriots, Rams-Eagles), with Houston upsetting Baltimore. He also tabbed Saints rookie Tyler Shough as a possible Offensive Rookie of the Year.