Miami Dolphins

club:

MIA

skill:

200

player:

Tucker Addington

season:

2026

claimed:

he makes the 53

accuracy:

100

baseline:

0

difficulty:

2

the naive guess:

he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again

weeks in the season:

18

weeks on the53:

3

weeks left when called:

18

first week on the53:

1

weeks on the practice squad:

0

club:

MIA

skill:

0

player:

Julius Brents

season:

2026

claimed:

he makes the 53

accuracy:

100

baseline:

100

difficulty:

2

the naive guess:

he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again

weeks in the season:

18

weeks on the53:

3

weeks left when called:

18

first week on the53:

1

weeks on the practice squad:

0

club:

MIA

skill:

0

player:

Aaron Brewer

season:

2026

claimed:

he makes the 53

accuracy:

100

baseline:

100

difficulty:

2

the naive guess:

he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again

weeks in the season:

18

weeks on the53:

3

weeks left when called:

18

first week on the53:

1

weeks on the practice squad:

0

club:

MIA

skill:

200

player:

Caleb Douglas

season:

2026

claimed:

he makes the 53

accuracy:

100

baseline:

0

difficulty:

2

the naive guess:

he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again

weeks in the season:

18

weeks on the53:

3

weeks left when called:

18

first week on the53:

1

weeks on the practice squad:

0

club:

MIA

skill:

200

player:

Kevin Coleman

season:

2026

claimed:

he makes the 53

accuracy:

100

baseline:

0

difficulty:

2

the naive guess:

he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again

weeks in the season:

18

weeks on the53:

3

weeks left when called:

18

first week on the53:

1

weeks on the practice squad:

0

club:

MIA

skill:

0

player:

Malik Willis

season:

2026

claimed:

he makes the 53

accuracy:

100

baseline:

100

difficulty:

2

the naive guess:

he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again

weeks in the season:

18

weeks on the53:

3

weeks left when called:

18

first week on the53:

1

weeks on the practice squad:

0

draft:

2026

naive:

naming one of the 50 at random averages 9.95

skill:

25.41

player:

Olaivavega Ioane

season:

2026

zero at:

credit halves every two places

accuracy:

35.36

baseline:

9.95

position:

offensive lineman

class size:

50

difficulty:

1

weeks in the season:

18

actual order:

4

predicted order:

1

weeks left when called:

0

skill:

0

player:

Romeo Doubs

season:

2026

claimed:

MIA

was with:

GB

accuracy:

0

baseline:

0

difficulty:

2

the naive guess:

he stays where he is

weeks in the season:

18

ended up with:

NE

weeks left when called:

18

team:

MIA

naive:

8.25

skill:

10

what happened:

7

season:

2025

zero at:

5

accuracy:

80

baseline:

75

predicted:

8–9 wins (8–9 wins)

difficulty:

2

weeks in the season:

18

weeks left when called:

18

club:

MIA

week:

1

skill:

200

player:

Malik Willis

season:

2026

claimed:

he starts

accuracy:

100

baseline:

0

position:

quarterback

reported:

named the starter

naive slot:

2

settled by:

a confirmed report from the crawl (reported outcomes)

difficulty:

2

the naive guess:

he keeps the job he had last season

weeks in the season:

18

weeks left when called:

18

club:

MIA

week:

1

skill:

200

player:

Malik Willis

season:

2026

claimed:

he starts

accuracy:

100

baseline:

0

position:

quarterback

reported:

named the starter

naive slot:

2

settled by:

a confirmed report from the crawl (reported outcomes)

difficulty:

2

the naive guess:

he keeps the job he had last season

weeks in the season:

18

weeks left when called:

18

club:

MIA

week:

1

skill:

200

player:

Malik Willis

season:

2026

claimed:

he starts

accuracy:

100

baseline:

0

position:

quarterback

reported:

named the starter

naive slot:

2

settled by:

a confirmed report from the crawl (reported outcomes)

difficulty:

2

the naive guess:

he keeps the job he had last season

weeks in the season:

18

weeks left when called:

18

club:

MIA

week:

1

skill:

200

player:

Malik Willis

season:

2026

claimed:

he starts

accuracy:

100

baseline:

0

position:

quarterback

reported:

named the starter

naive slot:

2

settled by:

a confirmed report from the crawl (reported outcomes)

difficulty:

2

the naive guess:

he keeps the job he had last season

weeks in the season:

18

weeks left when called:

18

club:

MIA

week:

1

skill:

-200

player:

Jalen Tolbert

season:

2026

claimed:

he starts

accuracy:

0

baseline:

100

reported:

he did not play that week

naive slot:

5

settled by:

weekly snap counts (he took no snap in the game)

difficulty:

2

the naive guess:

he keeps the job he had last season

weeks in the season:

18

weeks left when called:

18

club:

MIA

week:

1

skill:

-200

player:

Jalen Tolbert

season:

2026

claimed:

he starts

accuracy:

0

baseline:

100

reported:

he did not play that week

naive slot:

5

settled by:

weekly snap counts (he took no snap in the game)

difficulty:

2

the naive guess:

he keeps the job he had last season

weeks in the season:

18

weeks left when called:

18

won:

LV

score:

13-27

skill:

-200

they picked:

MIA

season:

2026

accuracy:

0

baseline:

100

the naive pick:

LV

difficulty:

2

weeks in the season:

18

weeks left when called:

18

score:

13-27

skill:

-83.17

they picked:

MIA

season:

2026

accuracy:

23.81

baseline:

65.4

difficulty:

2

weeks in the season:

18

actual margin:

14

weeks left when called:

18

naive home margin:

-0.53

predicted margin:

3

won:

LV

score:

13-27

skill:

-200

they picked:

MIA

season:

2026

accuracy:

0

baseline:

100

the naive pick:

LV

difficulty:

2

weeks in the season:

18

weeks left when called:

18

won:

LV

score:

13-27

skill:

-200

they picked:

MIA

season:

2026

accuracy:

0

baseline:

100

the naive pick:

LV

difficulty:

2

weeks in the season:

18

weeks left when called:

18

score:

13-27

skill:

-83.17

they picked:

MIA

season:

2026

accuracy:

23.81

baseline:

65.4

difficulty:

2

weeks in the season:

18

actual margin:

14

weeks left when called:

18

naive home margin:

-0.53

predicted margin:

3

won:

LV

score:

13-27

skill:

-200

they picked:

MIA

season:

2026

accuracy:

0

baseline:

100

the naive pick:

LV

difficulty:

2

weeks in the season:

18

weeks left when called:

18

won:

LV

score:

13-27

skill:

-200

they picked:

MIA

season:

2026

accuracy:

0

baseline:

100

the naive pick:

LV

difficulty:

2

weeks in the season:

18

weeks left when called:

18

won:

LV

score:

13-27

skill:

-200

they picked:

MIA

season:

2026

accuracy:

0

baseline:

100

the naive pick:

LV

difficulty:

2

weeks in the season:

18

weeks left when called:

18

won:

LV

score:

13-27

skill:

-200

they picked:

MIA

season:

2026

accuracy:

0

baseline:

100

the naive pick:

LV

difficulty:

2

weeks in the season:

18

weeks left when called:

18

call:

sleeper

cost:

almost as the fortieth player

naive:

he repeats last season

skill:

-200

player:

Tyreek Hill

season:

2025

correct:

no

accuracy:

0

baseline:

100

position:

WR

had to beat:

WR23

difficulty:

2

weeks in the season:

18

actual finish:

WR107

weeks left when called:

18

measured against:

the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish

call:

bust

cost:

the thirty seventh player off the board

naive:

he repeats last season

skill:

200

player:

Tyreek Hill

season:

2025

correct:

yes

accuracy:

100

baseline:

0

position:

WR

had to beat:

WR23

difficulty:

2

weeks in the season:

18

actual finish:

WR107

weeks left when called:

18

measured against:

the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish

call:

bust

cost:

the twelfth wide receiver on the consensus ADP

naive:

he repeats last season

skill:

200

player:

Tyreek Hill

season:

2025

correct:

yes

accuracy:

100

baseline:

0

position:

WR

had to beat:

WR23

difficulty:

2

weeks in the season:

18

actual finish:

WR107

weeks left when called:

18

measured against:

the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish

call:

sleeper

cost:

round six

naive:

he repeats last season

skill:

200

player:

Jaylen Waddle

season:

2025

correct:

yes

accuracy:

100

baseline:

0

position:

WR

had to beat:

WR48

difficulty:

2

weeks in the season:

18

actual finish:

WR19

weeks left when called:

18

measured against:

the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish

call:

sleeper

cost:

pick sixteen

naive:

he repeats last season

skill:

200

player:

De'Von Achane

season:

2025

correct:

yes

accuracy:

100

baseline:

0

position:

RB

had to beat:

RB9

difficulty:

2

weeks in the season:

18

actual finish:

RB7

weeks left when called:

18

measured against:

the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish

call:

sleeper

cost:

the beginning of the second

naive:

he repeats last season

skill:

200

player:

De'Von Achane

season:

2025

correct:

yes

accuracy:

100

baseline:

0

position:

RB

had to beat:

RB9

difficulty:

2

weeks in the season:

18

actual finish:

RB7

weeks left when called:

18

measured against:

the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish

call:

sleeper

cost:

expert Consensus RB six he's going in the second round

naive:

the draft market was right and he returned about what he cost

skill:

-200

player:

De'Von Achane

season:

2025

correct:

no

accuracy:

0

baseline:

100

position:

RB

cost round:

2

had to beat:

RB6

difficulty:

2

weeks in the season:

18

actual finish:

RB7

weeks left when called:

18

measured against:

the cost the source quoted — expert Consensus RB six he's going in the second round

call:

bust

cost:

wide receiver fifteen and ADP

naive:

he repeats last season

skill:

200

player:

Tyreek Hill

season:

2025

correct:

yes

accuracy:

100

baseline:

0

position:

WR

had to beat:

WR23

difficulty:

2

weeks in the season:

18

actual finish:

WR107

weeks left when called:

18

measured against:

the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish

call:

bust

cost:

wide receiver fifteen right now in the ADP

naive:

he repeats last season

skill:

200

player:

Tyreek Hill

season:

2025

correct:

yes

accuracy:

100

baseline:

0

position:

WR

had to beat:

WR23

difficulty:

2

weeks in the season:

18

actual finish:

WR107

weeks left when called:

18

measured against:

the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish

call:

bust

cost:

ECR thirty

naive:

he repeats last season

skill:

200

player:

Tyreek Hill

season:

2025

correct:

yes

accuracy:

100

baseline:

0

position:

WR

had to beat:

WR23

difficulty:

2

weeks in the season:

18

actual finish:

WR107

weeks left when called:

18

measured against:

the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish

call:

bust

cost:

a mid third round price

naive:

the draft market was right and he returned about what he cost

skill:

200

player:

Tyreek Hill

season:

2025

correct:

yes

accuracy:

100

baseline:

0

position:

WR

cost round:

3

had to beat:

WR10

difficulty:

2

weeks in the season:

18

actual finish:

WR107

weeks left when called:

18

measured against:

the cost the source quoted — a mid third round price

draft:

2026

naive:

a shuffled mock scores 50

player:

Akheem Mesidor

season:

2026

zero at:

32

accuracy:

100

baseline:

50

actual pick:

22

difficulty:

1

weeks in the season:

18

pick accuracy:

100

predicted pick:

late first, early second round (picks 1–64)

weeks left when called:

0

mock ordering score:

only one pick — no order to score

off:

12

drill:

weight lbs

naive:

the average EDGE (254.76, from 149 results)

scale:

credit halves every 10.89 — one standard deviation for a EDGE

skill:

-12.6

player:

Rueben Bain

result:

263

season:

2025

combine year:

2026

accuracy:

46.58

baseline:

59.18

predicted:

275

sigmas out:

1.1

difficulty:

1

weeks in the season:

18

weeks left when called:

0

Combine results via Pro-Football-Reference.com.

off:

7

drill:

weight lbs

naive:

the average EDGE (254.76, from 149 results)

scale:

credit halves every 10.89 — one standard deviation for a EDGE

skill:

4.86

player:

Rueben Bain

result:

263

season:

2025

combine year:

2026

accuracy:

64.04

baseline:

59.18

predicted:

270

sigmas out:

0.64

difficulty:

1

weeks in the season:

18

weeks left when called:

0

Combine results via Pro-Football-Reference.com.

draft:

2025

naive:

a shuffled mock scores 50

player:

Xavier Restrepo

season:

2024

zero at:

undrafted

outcome:

went undrafted in 2025; later signed with TEN

accuracy:

0

baseline:

50

actual pick:

undrafted

difficulty:

1

weeks in the season:

18

pick accuracy:

0

predicted pick:

like a third rounder (picks 65–102)

weeks left when called:

0

mock ordering score:

only one pick — no order to score