“Texans at Colts Projected score : Colts 26, Texans 23”
Hit · 98Scored 97.62a naive guess scored 96.35+2.39 skill
How this was scored
- score:
- 17-19
- skill:
- 2.39
- they picked:
- IND
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 97.62
- baseline:
- 96.35
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- naive home margin:
- 0.47
- predicted margin:
- 3
“Day 3 defensive ends George Gumbs Jr. and Caden Curry have essentially forced their way onto the Colts' initial 53-man roster.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
- club:
- IND
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Caden Curry
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he makes the 53
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“Day 3 defensive ends George Gumbs Jr. and Caden Curry have essentially forced their way onto the Colts' initial 53-man roster.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
- club:
- IND
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- George Gumbs
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he makes the 53
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“Laquon Treadwell locks into a roster spot: Treadwell played only one drive before exiting ahead of the rest of the Colts players who started the game.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
- club:
- IND
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Laquon Treadwell
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he makes the 53
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“Laquon Treadwell locks into a roster spot: Treadwell played only one drive before exiting ahead of the rest of the Colts players who started the game.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
- club:
- IND
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Laquon Treadwell
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he makes the 53
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“Not only does Richardson seem like a lock to make the roster, but he should also be viewed as the favorite for QB2 .”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
- club:
- IND
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Anthony Richardson
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he makes the 53
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“Harris seems to have an outside shot to make the roster... he may just find a way onto the roster.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
- club:
- IND
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Kenneth Harris
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he makes the 53
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“while Tillery is arguably good enough to make the roster, there is only room for so many defensive tackles”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
- club:
- IND
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Jerry Tillery
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he does not make the 53
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“there is already precedent for his release”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
- club:
- IND
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Laquon Treadwell
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he does not make the 53
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
“And so inevitably, I think he's going to get cut. I don't think he's going to get traded. I think he's going to get cut.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
- club:
- IND
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Anthony Richardson
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he does not make the 53
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“they expect to Forrest Buckner back by training camp from his injury, which means a he's not getting cut”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
- club:
- IND
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- DeForest Buckner
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he does not make the 53
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“I will be floored if the Colts move off of Anthony Richardson, cut him, trade him for a mid round pick, whatever it would be, because I think they believe in the talent”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
- club:
- IND
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Anthony Richardson
- season:
- 2025
- claimed:
- he does not make the 53
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 6
- weeks left when called:
“Keenan Allen is a newbie to the Colts. They don't have a long-term tie. I would think that probably could lead to his dismissal.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Keenan Allen
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- IND
- was with:
- LAC
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- reported:
- signed → IND
- settled by:
- a confirmed report from the crawl (reported outcomes)
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he stays where he is
- weeks in the season:
- 18
“They should trade for Mac Jones this offseason.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Mac Jones
- season:
- 2025
- claimed:
- IND
- was with:
- JAX
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- the naive guess:
- he stays where he is
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- ended up with:
- SF
- weeks left when called:
- 5
“I would imagine the next ten days if they get any bit of value a fifth round pick he's traded, it's over”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Anthony Richardson
- season:
- 2025
- claimed:
- he leaves
- was with:
- IND
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he stays where he is
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- ended up with:
- IND
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“Number fourteen the Colts... Armand Memboo from Missouri who tore it up offensive lineman.”
Close · 74Scored 73.84 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 71.07 against a shuffle’s 50+21.07 skill
How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 21.07
- player:
- Armand Membou
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 73.84
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 73.84
- predicted pick:
“he's going to play that role in the Indianapolis defense ... The Colts need some playmakers on the back end of that defense ... Javon Holland fits them perfectly.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Jevon Holland
- season:
- 2025
- claimed:
- IND
- was with:
- MIA
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he stays where he is
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- ended up with:
- NYG
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“Daniel Jones is going to the Indianapolis Colts with the first pick”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Daniel Jones
- season:
- 2025
- claimed:
- IND
- was with:
- NYG/MIN
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he stays where he is
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- ended up with:
- IND
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“That the Colts idea of competition for Anthony Richardson is Daniel Jones.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Daniel Jones
- season:
- 2025
- claimed:
- IND
- was with:
- NYG/MIN
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he stays where he is
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- ended up with:
- IND
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“The rookie linebacker is still expected to start in Week 1's regular-season opener against the Baltimore Ravens”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
- club:
- IND
- week:
- 1
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- C.J. Allen
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he starts
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- reported:
- he did not play that week
- settled by:
- weekly snap counts (he took no snap in the game)
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
“Colts straight up over the... If Houston beats Buffalo and the Colts beat the Ravens, you get 11 points.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
- won:
- BAL
- score:
- 41-23
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- IND
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- IND
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“Let's go with Indiana and the Jones and the Colts. We'll go with 23-17 Indianapolis.”
Miss · 21Scored 21.43a naive guess scored 5.87+31.11 skill
How this was scored
- score:
- 41-23
- skill:
- 31.11
- they picked:
- IND
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 21.43
- baseline:
- 5.87
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- -0.53
- predicted margin:
- 6
“Ravens at Colts — Gilberto Manzano: Colts”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
- won:
- BAL
- score:
- 41-23
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- IND
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- IND
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“if you miss on the top three, you should be targeting Craft or Tyler Warren on the back end of the tight end. So that is a draft.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- tight end eleven
- naive:
- a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Tyler Warren
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- TE
- had to beat:
- TE12
- difficulty:
- 2
“Despite Daniel Jones being there, I to him drafting Tyler Warren... I do like the adp of Tyler Warren”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- tight end eleven
- naive:
- a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Tyler Warren
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- TE
- had to beat:
- TE12
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
“Yeah, It's like George Kittle and Jeremy Shockey had a baby and it was Tyler Warren. So yes, it's a lot of havoc after the catch.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- tight end eleven
- naive:
- a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Tyler Warren
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- TE
- had to beat:
- TE12
- difficulty:
- 2
“he goes pick one forty eight on ESPN, which is crazy. Josh Downs... This is another young wide receiver that is flash talents, continuing to get better.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- pick one forty eight on ESPN
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Josh Downs
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR38
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
“And let's face it, the Anthey Richardson. He is the new version of Trey Lance. They swung for the fences that they whiffed.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
- pick:
- 4
- draft:
- 2023
- naive:
- the pick returned what picks at that cost typically return
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Anthony Richardson
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- best finish:
- QB25 in 2024
- difficulty:
- 2
- had to reach:
“Steiken made it sound like they have an in house replacement ... So it sounds like they're going to let Braden Smith hit the market if you're looking for a right tackle.”
Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 91.67-8.33 skill
How this was scored
- club:
- IND
- skill:
- -8.33
- player:
- Jalen Travis
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 83.33
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- T
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- measured by:
- offensive snaps
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
“I think this will be the best player at fourteenth available and he'll start Day one.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skill
How this was scored
- club:
- NYJ
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Armand Membou
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- T
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- offensive snaps
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
“but I like the Indianapolis Colts. ... Give me the Indianapolis Colts favored by one and a half down there.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-128 skill
How this was scored
- won:
- JAX
- score:
- 19-36
- skill:
- -128
- they picked:
- IND
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- JAX
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
“Do I think they win straight up? Probably not... My model does have four and a half points. I have a three point win for Indianapolis.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
- won:
- HOU
- score:
- 20-16
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- IND
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- IND
- difficulty:
- 1.33
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 6