Todd McShayMar 2, 2026
McShay projects the 2026 draft's top of the board: Mendoza first overall to the Raiders, Jeremiah Love inside the top five, Sonny Styles inside the top 10, Ty Simpson as the second quarterback and a first-rounder, and UCF edge Malachi Lawrence as a top-100 pick.
Said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)Hear the original
What Todd McShay said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromThe Jets are gonna take a defensive player, and the Raiders at one are gonna take Fernando Mendoza.
- Where it was said
- The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)
- The episode
- Hour 2: Rich’s Combine Takeaways, Carson Beck Booed, plus The Ringer’s Todd McShay
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidMar 2
- GradedAug 13–14
- 1Sonny Styles to be picked “top 10” (picks 1–10)“And I think Sonny Styles not getting out of the top 10 anymore.”
- 2Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1“the Raiders at one are gonna take Fernando Mendoza”
- 3Jeremiyah Love to be picked “top five” (picks 1–5)“I don't see Jeremiah Love getting out of the top five... He's not getting out of the top five.”
- 4Ty Simpson to be 2nd quarterback off the board“Where are you on the second quarterback? ... Ty Simpson. Ty Simpson all day long.”
- 5Ty Simpson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)“You think he'll be a first rounder? That's what you think? I I would be absolutely shocked if Tysons is not a strong pick... I think it's closer to the Rams than people thought in terms of 13, not 29.”
- 6Malachi Lawrence to be picked “top 100 pick” (picks 1–100)“So this is a guy who's gonna be top 100 pick who I think has been slept on for way too long.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Styles to be picked “top 10” (picks 1–10)1 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 7 | 100 | 50 | — | |
| Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 12 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 1 | 100 | 50 | — | |
| Jeremiyah Love to be picked “top five” (picks 1–5)3 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 3 | 100 | 50 | — | |
| Ty Simpson to be 2nd quarterback off the board4 | Position Order Calls | — | 100 | 39.7 | +60.3 | |
| Ty Simpson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)5 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 13 | 100 | 50 | — | |
| Malachi Lawrence to be picked “top 100 pick” (picks 1–100)6 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 23 | 100 | 50 | — | |
| 6 calls · 6 hits · all settled | 100 | 48.3 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive6 checkable claims — 5 mock draft picks and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 6 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 48.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Where this call stands in the room
Fernando Mendoza · 2026 season · overall pick11 calls from 10 pundits between 1 overall pick and 1 overall pick. Todd McShay said 1 overall pick. the room's median is 1 overall pick. what happened: 1 overall pick
Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question, before the answer existed. The bar is what actually happened. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
Sonny Styles to be picked “top 10” (picks 1–10)
What happenedWent 7100Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Sonny Styles
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- top 10 (picks 1–10)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
2Mock Draft PicksFernando MendozaLas Vegas Raiders
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
What happenedWent 1mocked at 1100Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Fernando Mendoza
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
3Mock Draft PicksJeremiyah Love
Jeremiyah Love to be picked “top five” (picks 1–5)
What happenedWent 3100Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Jeremiyah Love
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- top five (picks 1–5)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
4Position Order CallsTy Simpson
Ty Simpson to be 2nd quarterback off the board
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 39.7100this call−39.7a naive guess=60.3better than naive×1difficulty=+60.3skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- naming one of the 10 at random averages 39.7
- skill:
- 60.3
- player:
- Ty Simpson
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 39.7
- position:
- quarterback
- class size:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 2
- predicted order:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Ty Simpson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
What happenedWent 13100Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Ty Simpson
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- first round (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
6Mock Draft PicksMalachi Lawrence
Malachi Lawrence to be picked “top 100 pick” (picks 1–100)
What happenedWent 23100Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Malachi Lawrence
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 23
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- top 100 pick (picks 1–100)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 6 settled calls, each counted once
100naive 48.3
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Chris Broussard · Game Outcome Picks · Las Vegas Raiders · Hit 100
Broussard picked the Ravens to beat the Bills in a shootout, 38-34, took the Raiders to upset the Jets, and said Detroit would beat the Vikings.John Breech · Score Predictions · Las Vegas Raiders · Hit 95
Breech's Week 8 score predictions include Bengals over Titans, Raiders over Jets, Rams over Chargers and Patriots over Dolphins.Tyler Sullivan · Game Outcome Picks · Las Vegas Raiders · Hit 100
Sullivan's Week 8 upset alert column flags five favorites they expect to lose: they pick the Falcons over the Buccaneers, the Raiders over the Jets, the undefeated Vikings over the Lions, the Ravens (with Lamar Jackson returning) over the Bills, and the Browns over the Steelers.Ezekiel Trezevant · Game Outcome Picks · Las Vegas Raiders · Hit 100
Trezevant argues that if the Raiders are as improved as they appeared at 3-0, they should beat the Jets in Week 8 on the road and end their four-game losing streak.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Chris Simms · Mock Draft Picks · Malachi Corley · Miss 11
Simms named the Bears the NFL's best overall offense and best rushing offense, the Bengals the best passing offense, Seattle the best total defense, Minnesota the best pass defense and Tampa Bay the best run defense; they also called Tristan Wirfs the league's best offensive lineman, projected Miami's Malachi Toney as a top-15 pick, and predicted a 30-14 Jaguars win in Baltimore.Philip Hughes · Mock Draft Picks · Kyle Kennard · Miss 34
Evaluating edge rusher Kyle Kennard ahead of the draft, the account projected them as a Day 2 selection.Blaine Grisak · Mock Draft Picks · Brian Thomas Jr. · Hit 84
Grisak argues the Rams should not trade a second-round pick for Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr., calling it too great a risk and too high a cost. In an embedded tweet of their own from the 2024 pre-draft period, they suggested the Rams could select Thomas at pick No. 19.Charlie Campbell · Mock Draft Picks · Xavier Williams · Miss 0
Campbell's draft stock report projects Indiana WR Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in 2027, Mississippi State CB Kelley Jones as a first-rounder, Tennessee DT Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick, and Texas OT Trevor Goosby as a top-10 pick, while suggesting Arch Manning could still be a first-rounder if they declare.Charlie Campbell · Mock Draft Picks · Xavier Williams · Miss 0
Reviewing Week 7 college games, Campbell projects a slate of draft outcomes: Tennessee's Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick in 2026, Alabama's Bray Hubbard as a Day 2 pick and Yhonzae Pierre as a potential first-rounder, Jeremiah Smith as one of the very first players drafted, Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in the 2027 draft, Colin Simmons and Trevor Goosby as top-10 picks, and Jadan Baugh as a first-round pick.