Mock Draft Picks
Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.
- Takes logged
- 4,221
- Graded
- 2,915
- Average accuracy
- 65.4
- Pundits
- 211
69% settled
out of 100
have made one
How these calls land
Takes in each band
Settled or waiting
2,915 / 4,221
graded
1,306 still pending
By season
- 20211 of 4 graded
- 202365 of 82 graded
- 202498 of 113 graded
- 20251221 of 1402 graded
- 20261530 of 2620 graded
Who is good at mock draft picks
- Chris Brockman75 accuracy · 36 graded+50.0
- Ryan Tracy48 accuracy · 21 graded+50.0
- John Middlekauff76 accuracy · 19 graded+50.0
- Chris Clark68 accuracy · 16 graded+50.0
- Tom Pelissero90 accuracy · 13 graded+50.0
- Joel Klatt92 accuracy · 13 graded+50.0
- Jeff Cavanaugh82 accuracy · 10 graded+50.0
- Dylan Sanders68 accuracy · 10 graded+50.0
- Kyle Brandt69 accuracy · 8 graded+50.0
- Dane Brugler87 accuracy · 8 graded+50.0
- Brian Bosarge18 accuracy · 6 graded+50.0
- Jason McIntyre64 accuracy · 6 graded+50.0
- Darrion Gray64 accuracy · 5 graded+50.0
- Cody Kessler65 accuracy · 5 graded+50.0
- Bernie Frattle65 accuracy · 4 graded+50.0
- Justin Pugh93 accuracy · 4 graded+50.0
- Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz50 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Bradley Locker60 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Lance Moore86 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Natalie Kerwin84 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Logan Ryan50 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Cynthia Frelund48 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- John Butchko85 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Brendan Donahue77 accuracy · 16 graded+48.6
- Brady Quinn80 accuracy · 15 graded+47.6
- Chad Reuter58 accuracy · 4 graded+47.5
- Jason Hirschhorn53 accuracy · 5 graded+47.0
- Jacob Westendorf53 accuracy · 5 graded+47.0
- Rich Eisen84 accuracy · 58 graded+46.7
- Jordan Reid87 accuracy · 14 graded+46.5
- Charles Davis84 accuracy · 13 graded+46.4
- Andy Furman97 accuracy · 7 graded+45.0
- Andrew Erickson71 accuracy · 12 graded+43.5
- Chad Rader72 accuracy · 10 graded+43.3
- David Harrison64 accuracy · 120 graded+43.2
- Ryan McCrystal61 accuracy · 36 graded+40.4
- Matt Miller81 accuracy · 44 graded+40.4
- Emory Hunt47 accuracy · 9 graded+40.1
- Kimmi Chex69 accuracy · 4 graded+40.0
- Danny Parkins95 accuracy · 25 graded+39.7
- Mike Renner74 accuracy · 98 graded+39.5
- Ross Jackson63 accuracy · 142 graded+38.4
- Peter Schrager74 accuracy · 18 graded+37.5
- Keith Sanchez68 accuracy · 43 graded+37.4
- Nate Tice72 accuracy · 20 graded+37.2
- Jaime Eisner44 accuracy · 119 graded+36.7
- Pat Fitzmaurice70 accuracy · 42 graded+36.3
- Vinnie Iyer73 accuracy · 8 graded+36.3
- Lance Zierlein58 accuracy · 27 graded+36.2
- Brandon Carney78 accuracy · 18 graded+35.8
- Colin Cowherd67 accuracy · 60 graded+35.7
- Scott Bogman68 accuracy · 33 graded+35.6
- Nick Wright82 accuracy · 95 graded+34.8
- Brian Peacock68 accuracy · 36 graded+34.7
- Trevor Sikkema75 accuracy · 17 graded+33.3
- Daniel Wade60 accuracy · 13 graded+32.9
- Nick Shook91 accuracy · 37 graded+32.3
- Pat Gustavson82 accuracy · 16 graded+32.3
- Field Yates81 accuracy · 30 graded+32.2
- Todd McShay90 accuracy · 24 graded+31.3
- Gregg Rosenthal79 accuracy · 108 graded+30.9
- Bucky Brooks78 accuracy · 99 graded+30.4
- Mel Kiper81 accuracy · 65 graded+30.2
- Eric Crocker64 accuracy · 16 graded+30.0
- Ayrton Ostley59 accuracy · 14 graded+28.7
- Kyle Crabbs68 accuracy · 322 graded+28.5
- Derek Brown78 accuracy · 21 graded+26.8
- Daniel Jeremiah72 accuracy · 226 graded+26.7
- Jourdan Rodrigue70 accuracy · 31 graded+24.5
- JP Acosta66 accuracy · 69 graded+22.2
- Steve Mensch74 accuracy · 14 graded+20.9
- Eric Edholm47 accuracy · 4 graded+20.0
- Peter Bukowski50 accuracy · 26 graded+12.5
- Jonas Knox17 accuracy · 10 graded-5.0
- Mike Mayock51 accuracy · 22 graded-5.2
- Isaiah Stanback66 accuracy · 4 graded-10.0
- Fran Duffy51 accuracy · 8 graded-50.0
limitedRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.
Why so many dead-wrong answers?
Mock drafts are the single biggest source of zero scores on this site — and it is not because analysts are bad at them. It is because a mock draft asks the same person to do two very different jobs, and only one of them is possible.
Accuracy collapses after round one
- Round 1 · picks 1–321653 picks · off by 10 on average76.4 avg
- Round 2 · 33–64112 picks · off by 25 on average49.5 avg
- Round 3 · 65–10093 picks · off by 34 on average38.8 avg
- Day 3 · 101–175158 picks · off by 41 on average32.7 avg
- Late Day 3 · 176+93 picks · off by 50 on average26.9 avg
A first-round mock is a genuinely good prediction. Across 1653 first-round picks the average score is 76.4, missing by about 10 places. By late day 3 that has fallen to 26.9, missing by 50.
The order of the late rounds is close to unknowable. Thirty-two teams making a hundred and fifty picks are working from private boards, trades nobody has made yet, and medical information that never becomes public. 38% of every zero-scored pick we hold was mocked after round two.
Which is a hard thing to score fairly, and looking at this chart is what made us change how we do it. Until 2 August 2026 credit ran out at one full round, so a pick 32 places out and one 128 places out both scored zero — and 29% of every pick we held sat on that floor. Credit now halves every sixteen picks instead: the standard for a good pick is untouched, and being wrong by a round is no longer the same answer as being wrong by four. The methodology records the change and the numbers behind it.
An analyst who mocks all seven rounds is still attempting the hardest version of the exercise, and the back half will always score lower than the front. That is why the leaderboard ranks on MissedTakes Score, which comes from how well a mock ordered the draft rather than from its individual picks — a seven-round mock is judged on the shape it got right, not on the length of its tail.
The players who fooled everyone
- Jermod McCoyCB22 mocksmocked around 16 · went at 101
- Shedeur SandersQB18 mocksmocked around 8 · went at 144
- Emmanuel McNeil-WarrenSAF11 mocksmocked around 21 · went at 58
- Will JohnsonCB7 mocksmocked around 10 · went at 47
- C.J. AllenLB7 mocksmocked around 18 · went at 53
These are predictions about where a team would pick, not judgements of the player. A slide says as much about thirty-two front offices as it does about anyone’s evaluation.
By publisher
- Locked On Bills (podcast)55.8 · 36 graded
- Locked On Chiefs (podcast)67.8 · 53 graded
- Fox Sports Radio (podcast)94.9 · 42 graded
- Locked On Lions (podcast)81.1 · 26 graded
- The Dan Patrick Show (podcast)91.8 · 14 graded
- Sharp Football Analysis68.9 · 52 graded
- Locked On Commanders (podcast)60.4 · 126 graded
- The Rich Eisen Podcast (podcast)97.3 · 12 graded
- The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)74.7 · 232 graded
- Locked On Chargers (podcast)70.4 · 26 graded
- Locked On Saints (podcast)63.5 · 182 graded
- The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)79.0 · 233 graded
- KC Sports Network (podcast)66.5 · 95 graded
- The Draft Network42.6 · 162 graded
- First Things First (podcast)79.7 · 119 graded
- Bran Coverage with BenchwarmerBran (podcast)83.7 · 34 graded
- Around the NFL (podcast)77.0 · 232 graded
- Locked On 49ers (podcast)69.8 · 72 graded
- John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast)55.1 · 13 graded
- Locked On Rams (podcast)50.0 · 14 graded
- Pushing the Pile (podcast)68.9 · 212 graded
- Move the Sticks (podcast)71.2 · 350 graded
- The 33rd Team63.7 · 349 graded
- NFL Live (podcast)92.7 · 22 graded
- Locked On Packers (podcast)52.4 · 39 graded
- DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast)71.6 · 72 graded
- 2 Pros and a Cup of Joe (podcast)68.6 · 26 graded
- Overreaction Monday (podcast)62.5 · 38 graded
- The Colin Cowherd Podcast (podcast)77.8 · 13 graded
- Walter Football99.6 · 6 graded
- Locked On Cardinals (podcast)88.4 · 6 graded
- Nightcap (podcast)66.7 · 3 graded
- Pro Football Focus100.0 · 1 graded
- Fox Sports0.0 · 1 graded
- CBS Sports36.9 · 1 graded
- 4for4100.0 · 1 graded
Every mock draft picks take
626–650 of 4,221
C.J. Carr to be picked “first-rounders”
Carr, Moore, and Johnson could be first-rounders next April.
Matayo Uiagalelei to be picked “Day 2” (picks 33–100)
Matayo Uiagalelei ... Early grade: Day 2
Dylan Stewart to be picked “Top 10” (picks 1–10)
Dylan Stewart ... Early grade: Top 10 ... He doesn't need to show any more to be a top-10 pick.
Boubacar Traore to be picked “Late Day 2” (picks 67–100)
Boubacar Traore ... Early grade: Late Day 2
Jordan Ross to be picked “Day 2” (picks 33–100)
Jordan Ross ... Early grade: Day 2
Clev Lubin to be picked “Late Day 2” (picks 67–100)
Clev Lubin ... Early grade: Late Day 2
Kenyatta Jackson to be picked “Late Day 2” (picks 67–100)
Kenyatta Jackson Jr. ... Early grade: Late Day 2
Sahir West to be picked “Early Day 2” (picks 33–67)
Sahir West ... Early grade: Early Day 2
Yhonzae Pierre to be picked “Day 2” (picks 33–100)
Yhonzae Pierre ... Early grade: Day 2
Colin Simmons to be picked “Top 10” (picks 1–10)
Colin Simmons ... Early grade: Top 10 ... He's yet another prospect who doesn't have to play another down to go top 10.
Will Heldt to be picked “Late Day 1/Early Day 2” (picks 1–17)
Will Heldt ... Early grade: Late Day 1/Early Day 2
Dylan Stewart to be picked at number 6
With that sixth pick, Reid has Tennessee adding another piece to Robert Saleh's defense in the form of South Carolina EDGE Dylan Stewart.
Jelani McDonald to be picked “early-round potential”
2027 NFL Draft Expectations: Entering the 2026 season, McDonald has early-round potential.
Kayden McDonald to be picked “selected by the Chargers in the 2026 mock draft”
Early Mock Draft Pick Analysis -from Walt 2026 NFL Mock Draft (as of 1/9/26): Kayden McDonald, DT — The Chargers are going to need to add multiple young defensive line talents.
Chris Cole to be picked at number 24
Round 1, Pick 24: Chris Cole, LB, Georgia — Reid has Dallas selecting at No. 24, which is where they land Georgia linebacker Chris Cole.
Leonard Moore to be picked “top five” (picks 1–5)
He could take the year off and still go in the top five .
Arch Manning to be picked at number 1
While there's no shortage of holes to poke in Arch Manning's 2025 tape, he ends up at No. 1 overall for two big reasons
Trevor Lauck to be picked “first-rounder” (picks 1–32)
If his play strength improves, he should be a first-rounder.
Trevor Goosby to be picked “top 10” (picks 1–10)
if he can show any stretch of play like he did toward the end of 2025, he's a safe bet to go in the top 10 .
Cam Coleman to be picked “first-rounder” (picks 1–32)
While he could stand to get more consistent in his route running, his floor is very much a first-rounder.
Greg Johnson to be picked “first-rounder” (picks 1–32)
If the career progression we've already seen in nearly three years as a starter continues, he'll be a first-rounder.
Brauntae Johnson to be picked “first-round safety” (picks 1–32)
With a long wingspan and easy playmaking ability, he could easily be the next first-round safety .
Ellis Robinson to be picked “early-round potential”
Entering the 2026 season, Robinson has early-round potential for the 2027 NFL Draft.
Ashton Lampkin to be picked “early-round prospect”
Entering the 2026 season, Hampton looks like an early-round prospect for the 2027 NFL Draft.
Leonard Moore to be picked “top three of the NFL draft” (picks 1–3)
I think he could get selected in the top three of the NFL draft. That's how good he is on the outside.
By sport
NFL — mock draft picks (2996 graded)
The NFL is the only sport we cover today. This page exists so that adding a second one does not mean rewriting every link.