Gregg Rosenthal· Apr 2, 2026
Rosenthal thinks Arvel Reese makes sense for the Jets at No. 2 overall and may well be their pick, and he expects both Manuel McNeil Warren and Dylan Thieneman — the safeties in the mix behind Caleb Downs — to be first-round selections.
“I was thinking he's a good pick for the Jets at two... he might have the higher ceiling so they might take him.”
said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
3 checkable claims — 3 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 3 have settled, averaging 73.4 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where this call stands in the room
Arvell Reese · 2026 season · overall pick18 calls from 13 pundits between 2 overall pick and 5 overall pick. Gregg Rosenthal said 2 overall pick. the room's median is 2 overall pick. what happened: 5 overall pick
Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question, before the answer existed. The bar is what actually happened. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
3 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksArvell ReeseNew York JetsApr 2, 2026
Arvell Reese to be picked at number 2
“I was thinking he's the smart he's a good pick for the Jets at two, and they're thinking a little bit more about twenty twenty seven supposedly, and that he might have the higher ceiling so they might take him.”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Arvell Reese
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksDillon ThienemanApr 2, 2026
Dillon Thieneman to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
“in the mix to be the second safety Along With dylan Thieneman, from oregon and both of them are probably first, round picks”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Dillon Thieneman
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 25
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- first round (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksEmmanuel McNeil-WarrenApr 2, 2026
Emmanuel McNeil-Warren to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
“a Manuel McNeil Warren the toledo player who is in the mix to be the second safety Along With dylan Thieneman, from oregon and both of them are probably first, round picks”
Miss · 32Scored 32.42a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Emmanuel McNeil-Warren
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 32.42
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 58
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 32.42
- predicted pick:
- first round (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
What others said about the same people
- Kevin WildesGame Outcome Picks · New York JetsMiss · 0For upset alert Wildes took the Broncos to beat the Rams straight up in Denver and added the Jets to beat the Lions straight up.
- Patricia TrainaRoster Spot Calls · Arvell ReeseHit · 100Traina projects the Giants' initial 53-man roster position by position, naming who makes the team and who lands on the practice squad, including keeping Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Evan Neal (with a possible trade), Dalen Cambre over Braxton Berrios, Lucas Patrick as backup center, and Dominic Zvada as the kicker.
- Devon PlatanaRoster Spot Calls · Arian SmithMiss · 0Platana projects the Jets' post-move wide receiver depth chart for 2026 — Garrett Wilson first, Adonai Mitchell second, rookie Omar Cooper Jr. third, Isaiah Williams fourth, Tim Patrick fifth and Jamaal Pritchett sixth — with Cam Camper, Quincy Skinner Jr. and Arian Smith landing on the practice squad. He also expects a bounce-back 1,000-yard season from Wilson.
- Nick FariaRoster Spot Calls · Jelani WoodsHit · 100Faria projects the Jets' depth chart entering the third week of training camp, naming starters, backups and bubble players across every position group, plus roster-spot calls on Jelani Woods, Xavier Newman, VJ Payne, Tre Brown and Samuel Womack III.
- Mike MoraitisRoster Spot Calls · Dillon ThienemanHit · 100Moraitis says Coby Bryant, Dillon Thieneman, Elijah Hicks and Cam Lewis are locks to make the Bears' 53-man roster, and that newly signed safety Xavier Woods has a chance to stick given Chicago's secondary injuries.
- Bradley LockerTrade and Signing Calls · Mazi SmithHit · 100Locker lists 10 players on the roster bubble entering 2026, suggesting Tyrone Tracy may not make the Giants' 53, Broderick Jones could be traded or cut by Pittsburgh, Dillon Gabriel may lose the Browns' QB3 job, Evan Neal's Giants tenure may end, and Will Levis will likely be traded or cut by Tennessee.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ryan WilsonMock Draft Picks · J.J. McCarthyMiss · 37Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands.
- Lance ZierleinMock Draft Picks · Jeremiyah LoveHit · 100Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 92Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day.
- Bucky BrooksMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 81In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13.