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Gregg Rosenthal#39 of 87 NFL pundits · Apr 2, 2026

Rosenthal thinks Arvel Reese makes sense for the Jets at No. 2 overall and may well be their pick, and they expect both Manuel McNeil Warren and Dylan Thieneman — the safeties in the mix behind Caleb Downs — to be first-round selections.

Said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast)Hear the original

2 of 3calls landed2 hits · 1 miss · all settled
73.4Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls
50A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
3 of 3Settlednone still waiting
#39Gregg Rosenthal’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Gregg Rosenthal said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
I was thinking he's a good pick for the Jets at two... he might have the higher ceiling so they might take him.
Gregg Rosenthal, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
Around the NFL (podcast)
The episode
Ranking the 2026 NFL Draft: Linebackers, Safeties and Defensive Tackles
The original
Hear the original
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The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

  1. SaidApr 2
  2. GradedOct 1
  1. 1Arvell Reese to be picked at number 2“I was thinking he's the smart he's a good pick for the Jets at two, and they're thinking a little bit more about twenty twenty seven supposedly, and that he might have the higher ceiling so they might take him.”
  2. 2Emmanuel McNeil-Warren to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)“a Manuel McNeil Warren the toledo player who is in the mix to be the second safety Along With dylan Thieneman, from oregon and both of them are probably first, round picks”
  3. 3Dillon Thieneman to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)“in the mix to be the second safety Along With dylan Thieneman, from oregon and both of them are probably first, round picks”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Arvell Reese to be picked at number 21Mock Draft PicksWent 587.8150—
Emmanuel McNeil-Warren to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)2Mock Draft PicksWent 5832.4250—
Dillon Thieneman to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)3Mock Draft PicksWent 2510050—
3 calls · 2 hits · 1 miss · all settled73.450

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

3 checkable claims — 3 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 3 have settled, averaging 73.4 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Where this call stands in the room

Arvell Reese · 2026 season · overall pick

18 calls from 13 pundits between 2 overall pick and 5 overall pick. Gregg Rosenthal said 2 overall pick. the room's median is 2 overall pick. what happened: 5 overall pick

Gregg Rosenthal — 2 overall pickthe room — 18 calls from 13 punditsmedian 2 overall pickwhat happened — 5 overall pick

Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question, before the answer existed. The bar is what actually happened. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.

Their call against what happened

overall pick
2They said
5What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

  1. 1Mock Draft PicksArvell ReeseNew York Jets

    Arvell Reese to be picked at number 2

    What happenedWent 5mocked at 2
    87.81Hit · naive 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Arvell Reese
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    87.81
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    5
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    87.81
    predicted pick:
    2
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Mock Draft PicksEmmanuel McNeil-Warren

    Emmanuel McNeil-Warren to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)

    What happenedWent 58
    32.42Miss · naive 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Emmanuel McNeil-Warren
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    32.42
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    58
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    32.42
    predicted pick:
    first round (picks 1–32)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Mock Draft PicksDillon Thieneman

    Dillon Thieneman to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)

    What happenedWent 25
    100Hit · naive 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Dillon Thieneman
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    25
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    first round (picks 1–32)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score
    Think this is wrong?
  4. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once

    73.4naive 50

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