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Mock Draft Picks

Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.

Takes logged
4,387
Graded
2,919

67% settled

Average accuracy
66.0

out of 100

Pundits
216

have made one

How these calls land

Every graded call of this kind, bucketed by score.

Takes in each band

020406080
0 — dead wrongscore out of 100100 — nailed it
1460 scored 80+711 scored under 40

Settled or waiting

2,919 / 4,387

graded

1,468 still pending

By season

  • 20211 of 4 graded
  • 202365 of 82 graded
  • 202498 of 113 graded
  • 20251221 of 1402 graded
  • 20261534 of 2786 graded

Who is good at mock draft picks

MissedTakes score for this kind of prediction only — accuracy measured against what a naive guess would have scored. Zero means no better than guessing.

limitedRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.

Why so many dead-wrong answers?

Mock drafts are the single biggest source of zero scores on this site — and it is not because analysts are bad at them. It is because a mock draft asks the same person to do two very different jobs, and only one of them is possible.

Accuracy collapses after round one

Average score out of 100, grouped by the round a player was mocked in. The bar is the score; the note is how far the average pick actually missed by.
  • Round 1 · picks 1–321676 picks · off by 10 on average76.3 avg
  • Round 2 · 33–64112 picks · off by 25 on average49.5 avg
  • Round 3 · 65–10094 picks · off by 33 on average38.7 avg
  • Day 3 · 101–175158 picks · off by 41 on average32.7 avg
  • Late Day 3 · 176+93 picks · off by 50 on average26.9 avg

A first-round mock is a genuinely good prediction. Across 1676 first-round picks the average score is 76.3, missing by about 10 places. By late day 3 that has fallen to 26.9, missing by 50.

The order of the late rounds is close to unknowable. Thirty-two teams making a hundred and fifty picks are working from private boards, trades nobody has made yet, and medical information that never becomes public. 38% of every zero-scored pick we hold was mocked after round two.

Which is a hard thing to score fairly, and looking at this chart is what made us change how we do it. Until 2 August 2026 credit ran out at one full round, so a pick 32 places out and one 128 places out both scored zero — and 29% of every pick we held sat on that floor. Credit now halves every sixteen picks instead: the standard for a good pick is untouched, and being wrong by a round is no longer the same answer as being wrong by four. The methodology records the change and the numbers behind it.

An analyst who mocks all seven rounds is still attempting the hardest version of the exercise, and the back half will always score lower than the front. That is why the leaderboard ranks on MissedTakes Score, which comes from how well a mock ordered the draft rather than from its individual picks — a seven-round mock is judged on the shape it got right, not on the length of its tail.

The players who fooled everyone

Where two or more analysts were more than a round out on the same player. One person being wrong is a take; several being wrong the same way is a story.

These are predictions about where a team would pick, not judgements of the player. A slide says as much about thirty-two front offices as it does about anyone’s evaluation.

By publisher

The same record pooled across everyone writing under one banner.

Every mock draft picks take

4326–4350 of 4,387

  • Hit · 92Ryan McCrystalMock Draft Picks2023 season

    C.J. Stroud to be picked at number 4

    The Colts are predicted to draft C.J. Stroud (QB, Ohio State) with their 1st round pick (#4 overall) according to the most recent mock draft from Ryan McCrystal.

    C.J. StroudIndianapolis Colts

    a naive guess scored 50+40.44 skillsaid Apr 18, 2023the article →
  • Close · 62Ryan McCrystalMock Draft Picks2023 season

    Christian Gonzalez to be picked at number 6

    The Lions are predicted to draft Christian Gonzalez (CB, Oregon) with the No. 6 pick

    Christian GonzalezDetroit Lions

    a naive guess scored 50+40.44 skillsaid Apr 18, 2023the article →
  • Hit · 88Brendan DonahueMock Draft Picks2023 season

    Jordan Addison to be picked at number 20

    Jordan Addison (WR, Boston College) with the 20th pick according to his most recent mock draft.

    Jordan AddisonSeattle Seahawks

    a naive guess scored 50+48.64 skillsaid Apr 18, 2023the article →
  • Hit · 81Ryan McCrystalMock Draft Picks2023 season

    Broderick Jones to be picked at number 9

    The Bears are predicted to draft Broderick Jones (OT, Georgia) with their 1st round pick (#9 overall) according to the most recent mock draft from Ryan McCrystal.

    Broderick JonesChicago Bears

    a naive guess scored 50+40.44 skillsaid Apr 18, 2023the article →
  • Close · 71Ryan McCrystalMock Draft Picks2023 season

    Jaxon Smith-Njigba to be picked at number 12

    Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, Ohio State) with the No. 12 overall pick in the first round according to the most recent mock draft from Ryan McCrystal.

    Jaxon Smith-NjigbaHouston Texans

    a naive guess scored 50+40.44 skillsaid Apr 18, 2023the article →
  • Hit · 96Brendan DonahueMock Draft Picks2023 season

    Jalen Carter to be picked at number 10

    has the Eagles predicted to draft Jalen Carter (DL, Georgia) with the No. 10 pick

    Jalen CarterPhiladelphia Eagles

    a naive guess scored 50+48.64 skillsaid Apr 18, 2023the article →
  • Close · 46Ryan McCrystalMock Draft Picks2023 season

    Joey Porter Jr. to be picked at number 14

    The Patriots are predicted to draft Joey Porter Jr. (CB, Penn State) with their 1st-round pick (#14 overall) according to the most recent mock draft from Ryan McCrystal.

    Joey Porter Jr.New England Patriots

    a naive guess scored 50+40.44 skillsaid Apr 18, 2023the article →
  • Hit · 100Brendan DonahueMock Draft Picks2023 season

    C.J. Stroud to be picked at number 2

    Brendan Donahue, has the Texans predicted to draft C.J. Stroud (QB, Ohio State) with the second pick

    C.J. StroudHouston Texans

    a naive guess scored 50+48.64 skillsaid Apr 18, 2023the article →
  • Hit · 96Brendan DonahueMock Draft Picks2023 season

    Anthony Richardson to be picked at number 3

    Brendan Donahue, predicts the Titans will trade up to No. 3 overall to select Anthony Richardson (QB, Florida)

    Anthony RichardsonTennessee Titans

    a naive guess scored 50+48.64 skillsaid Apr 18, 2023the article →
  • Hit · 96Ryan McCrystalMock Draft Picks2023 season

    Will Anderson Jr. to be picked at number 2

    The Texans are predicted to draft Will Anderson (EDGE, Alabama) with the No. 2 overall pick ... according to the most recent mock draft from Ryan McCrystal.

    Will Anderson Jr.Houston Texans

    a naive guess scored 50+40.44 skillsaid Apr 18, 2023the article →
  • PendingBrendan DonahueMock Draft Picks2023 season

    Anton Harrison to be picked “1st round pick”

    has the Chiefs predicted to draft Anton Harrison (OT, Oklahoma) with their 1st round pick according to his most recent mock draft.

    Anton HarrisonKansas City Chiefs

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Apr 18, 2023the article →
  • Close · 57Ryan McCrystalMock Draft Picks2023 season

    Myles Murphy to be picked at number 15

    The Packers are predicted to draft Myles Murphy (EDGE, Clemson) with their 1st round pick (#15 overall) according to the most recent mock draft from Ryan McCrystal.

    Myles MurphyGreen Bay Packers

    a naive guess scored 50+40.44 skillsaid Apr 18, 2023the article →
  • Miss · 3Ryan McCrystalMock Draft Picks2023 season

    Dawand Jones to be picked at number 31

    The Chiefs are predicted to draft Dawand Jones (OT, Ohio State) with their 1st round pick (#31 overall) according to the most recent mock draft from Ryan McCrystal.

    Dawand JonesKansas City Chiefs

    a naive guess scored 50+40.44 skillsaid Apr 18, 2023the article →
  • Hit · 81Ryan McCrystalMock Draft Picks2023 season

    BJ Ojulari to be picked at number 36

    Mock draft expert Ryan McCrystal predicts the Rams could target a pass rusher like BJ Ojulari (EDGE, LSU) with their top pick at No. 36 overall in the second round.

    BJ OjulariLos Angeles Rams

    a naive guess scored 50+40.44 skillsaid Apr 18, 2023the article →
  • Close · 48Ryan McCrystalMock Draft Picks2023 season

    Nolan Smith to be picked at number 13

    The Jets are predicted to draft Nolan Smith (EDGE, Georgia) with their 1st round pick (#13 overall) according to the most recent mock draft from Ryan McCrystal.

    Nolan SmithNew York Jets

    a naive guess scored 50+40.44 skillsaid Apr 18, 2023the article →
  • Hit · 100Ryan McCrystalMock Draft Picks2023 season

    Peter Skoronski to be picked at number 11

    The Titans are predicted to draft Peter Skoronski (OT, Northwestern) with their 1st-round pick (#11 overall) according to the most recent mock draft from Ryan McCrystal.

    Peter SkoronskiTennessee Titans

    a naive guess scored 50+40.44 skillsaid Apr 18, 2023the article →
  • Hit · 96Ryan McCrystalMock Draft Picks2023 season

    Jalen Carter to be picked at number 10

    The Eagles are predicted to draft Jalen Carter (DT, Georgia) with the No. 10 pick

    Jalen CarterPhiladelphia Eagles

    a naive guess scored 50+40.44 skillsaid Apr 18, 2023the article →
  • Hit · 92Ryan McCrystalMock Draft Picks2023 season

    Devon Witherspoon to be picked at number 7

    The Raiders are predicted to draft Devon Witherspoon (CB, Illinois) with their 1st round pick (#7 overall) according to the most recent mock draft from Ryan McCrystal.

    Devon WitherspoonLas Vegas Raiders

    a naive guess scored 50+40.44 skillsaid Apr 18, 2023the article →
  • Hit · 81Ryan McCrystalMock Draft Picks2023 season

    Lukas Van Ness to be picked at number 8

    The Falcons are predicted to draft Lukas Van Ness (EDGE, Iowa) with their 1st-round pick (#8 overall) according to the most recent mock draft from Ryan McCrystal.

    Lukas Van NessAtlanta Falcons

    a naive guess scored 50+40.44 skillsaid Apr 18, 2023the article →
  • Hit · 96Brendan DonahueMock Draft Picks2023 season

    Joey Porter Jr. to be picked “first-round pick” (picks 1–31)

    has the Steelers predicted to draft Joey Porter Jr. (CB, Penn State) with their first-round pick according to his most recent mock draft.

    Joey Porter Jr.Pittsburgh Steelers

    a naive guess scored 50+48.64 skillsaid Apr 18, 2023the article →
  • Hit · 88Ryan McCrystalMock Draft Picks2023 season

    Paris Johnson Jr. to be picked at number 3

    The Cardinals are predicted to draft Paris Johnson Jr. (OT, Ohio State) with their 1st-round pick (#3 overall) according to the most recent mock draft from Ryan McCrystal.

    Paris Johnson Jr.Arizona Cardinals

    a naive guess scored 50+40.44 skillsaid Apr 18, 2023the article →
  • Hit · 92Ryan McCrystalMock Draft Picks2023 season

    Tyree Wilson to be picked at number 5

    The Seahawks are predicted to draft Tyree Wilson (EDGE, Texas Tech) with their No. 5 overall pick

    Tyree WilsonSeattle Seahawks

    a naive guess scored 50+40.44 skillsaid Apr 18, 2023the article →
  • Hit · 100Brendan DonahueMock Draft Picks2023 season

    Bryce Young to be picked at number 1

    Brendan Donahue, also has the Panthers predicted to draft Bryce Young (QB, Alabama) with their 1st round pick according to his most recent mock draft.

    Bryce YoungCarolina Panthers

    a naive guess scored 50+48.64 skillsaid Apr 18, 2023the article →
  • Close · 71Brendan DonahueMock Draft Picks2023 season

    Jaxon Smith-Njigba to be picked at number 12

    Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, Ohio State) with the 12th pick according to his most recent mock draft.

    Jaxon Smith-NjigbaHouston Texans

    a naive guess scored 50+48.64 skillsaid Apr 18, 2023the article →
  • Hit · 96Brendan DonahueMock Draft Picks2023 season

    Devon Witherspoon to be picked at number 6

    has the Lions predicted to draft Devon Witherspoon (CB, Illinois) with the sixth pick

    Devon WitherspoonDetroit Lions

    a naive guess scored 50+48.64 skillsaid Apr 18, 2023the article →

By topic

NFL — mock draft picks (3000 graded)

Topics we cover today: NFL, US Elections. Every kind of prediction belongs to one of them; this page sits above the topic so that adding another does not mean rewriting every link.