Mock Draft Picks
Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.
- Takes logged
- 4,348
- Graded
- 2,919
- Average accuracy
- 66.0
- Pundits
- 213
67% settled
out of 100
have made one
How these calls land
Takes in each band
Settled or waiting
2,919 / 4,348
graded
1,429 still pending
By season
- 20211 of 4 graded
- 202365 of 82 graded
- 202498 of 113 graded
- 20251221 of 1402 graded
- 20261534 of 2747 graded
Who is good at mock draft picks
- Chris Brockman76 accuracy · 36 graded+50.0
- Ryan Tracy48 accuracy · 21 graded+50.0
- John Middlekauff76 accuracy · 19 graded+50.0
- Chris Clark68 accuracy · 16 graded+50.0
- Joel Klatt92 accuracy · 13 graded+50.0
- Tom Pelissero90 accuracy · 13 graded+50.0
- Jeff Cavanaugh82 accuracy · 10 graded+50.0
- Dylan Sanders68 accuracy · 10 graded+50.0
- Dane Brugler87 accuracy · 8 graded+50.0
- Kyle Brandt69 accuracy · 8 graded+50.0
- Jason McIntyre64 accuracy · 6 graded+50.0
- Brian Bosarge18 accuracy · 6 graded+50.0
- Cody Kessler65 accuracy · 5 graded+50.0
- Darrion Gray64 accuracy · 5 graded+50.0
- Bernie Frattle65 accuracy · 4 graded+50.0
- Justin Pugh93 accuracy · 4 graded+50.0
- Lance Moore86 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz50 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Bradley Locker60 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Cynthia Frelund48 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- John Butchko85 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Logan Ryan50 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Brendan Donahue77 accuracy · 16 graded+48.6
- Brady Quinn80 accuracy · 15 graded+47.6
- Rich Eisen84 accuracy · 58 graded+47.5
- Charles Davis84 accuracy · 13 graded+46.4
- Jordan Reid87 accuracy · 14 graded+45.4
- Andy Furman97 accuracy · 7 graded+45.0
- Jason Hirschhorn53 accuracy · 5 graded+45.0
- Jacob Westendorf53 accuracy · 5 graded+45.0
- Andrew Erickson71 accuracy · 12 graded+44.1
- Chad Rader72 accuracy · 10 graded+43.3
- David Harrison64 accuracy · 120 graded+42.8
- Danny Parkins95 accuracy · 25 graded+41.8
- Ryan McCrystal61 accuracy · 36 graded+40.4
- Matt Miller81 accuracy · 44 graded+40.1
- Eric Crocker64 accuracy · 16 graded+40.0
- Kimmi Chex69 accuracy · 4 graded+40.0
- Chad Reuter58 accuracy · 4 graded+40.0
- Lance Zierlein61 accuracy · 27 graded+39.7
- Mike Renner74 accuracy · 98 graded+39.2
- Nate Tice72 accuracy · 20 graded+39.1
- Jaime Eisner44 accuracy · 119 graded+38.9
- Keith Sanchez68 accuracy · 43 graded+38.4
- Peter Schrager74 accuracy · 18 graded+37.5
- Ross Jackson63 accuracy · 142 graded+37.1
- Scott Bogman71 accuracy · 33 graded+37.1
- Brandon Carney81 accuracy · 18 graded+36.9
- Pat Gustavson82 accuracy · 16 graded+34.9
- Nick Wright82 accuracy · 95 graded+34.8
- Brian Peacock68 accuracy · 36 graded+34.5
- Colin Cowherd67 accuracy · 60 graded+34.2
- Pat Fitzmaurice74 accuracy · 42 graded+34.1
- Trevor Sikkema75 accuracy · 17 graded+33.3
- Mel Kiper81 accuracy · 65 graded+33.0
- Field Yates83 accuracy · 30 graded+33.0
- Daniel Wade60 accuracy · 13 graded+32.9
- Derek Brown78 accuracy · 21 graded+32.7
- Nick Shook91 accuracy · 37 graded+32.3
- Todd McShay90 accuracy · 24 graded+31.7
- Gregg Rosenthal79 accuracy · 108 graded+31.2
- Bucky Brooks82 accuracy · 99 graded+30.1
- Ayrton Ostley59 accuracy · 14 graded+30.0
- Kyle Crabbs68 accuracy · 322 graded+29.6
- Emory Hunt50 accuracy · 9 graded+29.2
- Daniel Jeremiah73 accuracy · 226 graded+26.7
- Jourdan Rodrigue70 accuracy · 31 graded+24.5
- JP Acosta67 accuracy · 69 graded+20.5
- Eric Edholm47 accuracy · 4 graded+20.0
- Vinnie Iyer73 accuracy · 8 graded+19.1
- Steve Mensch74 accuracy · 14 graded+16.4
- Peter Bukowski50 accuracy · 26 graded+12.5
- Jonas Knox17 accuracy · 10 graded-5.0
- Mike Mayock51 accuracy · 22 graded-5.2
- Isaiah Stanback66 accuracy · 4 graded-10.0
- Fran Duffy51 accuracy · 8 graded-50.0
limitedRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.
Why so many dead-wrong answers?
Mock drafts are the single biggest source of zero scores on this site — and it is not because analysts are bad at them. It is because a mock draft asks the same person to do two very different jobs, and only one of them is possible.
Accuracy collapses after round one
- Round 1 · picks 1–321676 picks · off by 10 on average76.3 avg
- Round 2 · 33–64112 picks · off by 25 on average49.5 avg
- Round 3 · 65–10094 picks · off by 33 on average38.7 avg
- Day 3 · 101–175158 picks · off by 41 on average32.7 avg
- Late Day 3 · 176+93 picks · off by 50 on average26.9 avg
A first-round mock is a genuinely good prediction. Across 1676 first-round picks the average score is 76.3, missing by about 10 places. By late day 3 that has fallen to 26.9, missing by 50.
The order of the late rounds is close to unknowable. Thirty-two teams making a hundred and fifty picks are working from private boards, trades nobody has made yet, and medical information that never becomes public. 38% of every zero-scored pick we hold was mocked after round two.
Which is a hard thing to score fairly, and looking at this chart is what made us change how we do it. Until 2 August 2026 credit ran out at one full round, so a pick 32 places out and one 128 places out both scored zero — and 29% of every pick we held sat on that floor. Credit now halves every sixteen picks instead: the standard for a good pick is untouched, and being wrong by a round is no longer the same answer as being wrong by four. The methodology records the change and the numbers behind it.
An analyst who mocks all seven rounds is still attempting the hardest version of the exercise, and the back half will always score lower than the front. That is why the leaderboard ranks on MissedTakes Score, which comes from how well a mock ordered the draft rather than from its individual picks — a seven-round mock is judged on the shape it got right, not on the length of its tail.
The players who fooled everyone
- Jermod McCoyCB24 mocksmocked around 15 · went at 101
- Shedeur SandersQB18 mocksmocked around 8 · went at 144
- Emmanuel McNeil-WarrenS11 mocksmocked around 21 · went at 58
- Emmanuel PregnonG7 mocksmocked around 35 · went at 88
- Will JohnsonCB7 mocksmocked around 10 · went at 47
These are predictions about where a team would pick, not judgements of the player. A slide says as much about thirty-two front offices as it does about anyone’s evaluation.
By publisher
- Locked On Chiefs (podcast)67.8 · 53 graded
- Locked On Bills (podcast)55.8 · 36 graded
- Fox Sports Radio (podcast)94.9 · 42 graded
- Locked On Lions (podcast)81.1 · 26 graded
- The Dan Patrick Show (podcast)91.8 · 14 graded
- Sharp Football Analysis68.9 · 52 graded
- The Rich Eisen Podcast (podcast)97.3 · 12 graded
- Locked On Commanders (podcast)60.4 · 126 graded
- The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)74.9 · 232 graded
- The Draft Network42.6 · 162 graded
- The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)79.5 · 233 graded
- Locked On Saints (podcast)63.5 · 182 graded
- John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast)63.4 · 13 graded
- Locked On Chargers (podcast)70.4 · 26 graded
- KC Sports Network (podcast)67.5 · 95 graded
- Bran Coverage with BenchwarmerBran (podcast)84.6 · 34 graded
- Locked On 49ers (podcast)70.1 · 72 graded
- First Things First (podcast)79.7 · 119 graded
- Around the NFL (podcast)78.7 · 232 graded
- NFL Live (podcast)92.7 · 22 graded
- Move the Sticks (podcast)72.4 · 350 graded
- Pushing the Pile (podcast)69.6 · 212 graded
- Locked On Rams (podcast)50.0 · 14 graded
- The 33rd Team63.7 · 349 graded
- Locked On Packers (podcast)52.4 · 39 graded
- 2 Pros and a Cup of Joe (podcast)68.6 · 26 graded
- DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast)71.6 · 72 graded
- Overreaction Monday (podcast)62.5 · 38 graded
- The Colin Cowherd Podcast (podcast)77.8 · 13 graded
- Walter Football99.6 · 6 graded
- Locked On Cardinals (podcast)88.4 · 6 graded
- Sports Illustrated50.0 · 4 graded
- Nightcap (podcast)66.7 · 3 graded
- CBS Sports36.9 · 1 graded
- Fox Sports0.0 · 1 graded
- Pro Football Focus100.0 · 1 graded
- 4for4100.0 · 1 graded
Every mock draft picks take
1526–1550 of 4,348
Kenyon Sadiq to be picked “top fifteen of this draft” (picks 1–15)
then he does fit as a guy who could be taken in the top fifteen of this draft and makes Sense
Ty Simpson to be picked “top of the second round” (picks 33–64)
Well, you're probably going to have to do it the top of the second round.
Kenyon Sadiq to be picked “maybe it's mole down in the teens the twenties”
no it feels like the range has come down slightly from Post COMBINE i would say that maybe it's mole down in the teens the twenties
J.C. Davis to be picked at number 153
Are both of you in agreement for 01:53 and 01:60, JC? I think we are.
Julian Neal to be picked at number 120
Alright. You're taking quarterback Julianneil confirmed?
Chris Johnson to be picked at number 52
And I would say Chris Johnson is your pick, and you don't even think twice about that.
Domonique Orange to be picked at number 84
So my lean right now is Dominic Orange... Round three, you guys take big citrus, Dominique Orange out of Iowa State
J.C. Davis to be picked at number 153
So I'd lean offensive lineman at one fifty three. So JC Davis in that case is kind of the one that I prefer there.
Julian Neal to be picked at number 120
it sounds like we're both leaning now toward Neil... Round four, pick number one twenty. You double dipped into the quarterback position. You both agreed on Julian Neal out of Arkansas.
Chris Johnson to be picked at number 52
I think we're in agreement here. Chris Johnson's the pick of these options?
Nicholas Singleton to be picked at number 160
And then I would go Nick Singleton if he's still available at one sixty over Kaylon Black.
Nicholas Singleton to be picked at number 160
And then round five, you had two selections, one fifty three and one sixty. And you took tackle JC Davis out of Illinois and running back Nick Singleton out of Penn State.
Domonique Orange to be picked at number 84
So I I do think you're right. Dominique Orange is the best way to do this.
Chris Johnson to be picked “high second, late first kind of round grade / won't be there at 52”
I actually don't believe that Chris Johnson will ultimately be there at 52
Max Iheanachor to be picked “the first 50 picks”
That group of seven tackles, those are the guys who are gonna be basically the the first up in the first 50 picks... we could see Jano Choi make it into round one.
Gabe Akas to be picked “mid second rounder” (picks 33–64)
I know in my, one of my latest mock drafts, I had him going in the second round to the Packers with their first draft pick in this class. He seems like a mid second rounder
Monroe Freeling to be picked “top 12 picks, maybe the top 10” (picks 1–12)
Because I I really feel like he's gonna be gone in in the top 12 picks, maybe the top 10.
Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 9
Daniel Jeremiah in his mock draft ... said the Chiefs can sit there and have Jeremiah Love dropped to him because no one else has taken him, until the Chiefs go
Jordyn Tyson to be picked at number 9
The wide receiver, Jordan Tyson, that's who Todd McShea has them taking out of Arizona State.
David Bailey to be picked “should be gone by then (before the Chiefs at No. 9)”
Edge rusher, and, you know, Bailey and Reese should be gone by then.
Carnell Tate to be picked “should be gone (before the Chiefs at No. 9)”
The wide receiver, Jordan Tyson, that's who Todd McShea has them taking out of Arizona State. Cardinal Tate should be gone.
Carnell Tate to be picked “Jets move up for him”
the Jets should move up. They should move up for Carnell Tate. When d when DJ put this one in my head, I'm like, that makes sense. And now we've got Todd McShay saying the same thing.
Carnell Tate to be picked “Jets hop up and take him in front of the Chiefs at No. 9”
and the Jets are gonna hop up and take Cornell Tate in front of them. That's the way he went in his mock draft.
Arvell Reese to be picked “should be gone by then (before the Chiefs at No. 9)”
Edge rusher, and, you know, Bailey and Reese should be gone by then.
- Hit · 88Locked On Saints (podcast)Mock Draft Picks2026 season
Mansoor Delane to be picked at number 9
Mansour Delaine went pick nine right after, I selected Reuben Bain Junior.
Mansoor DelaneKansas City Chiefs
a naive guess scored 50+25 skillsaid Apr 16, 2026
By sport
NFL — mock draft picks (3000 graded)
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