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Mock Draft Picks

Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.

Takes logged
4,348
Graded
2,919

67% settled

Average accuracy
66.0

out of 100

Pundits
213

have made one

How these calls land

Every graded call of this kind, bucketed by score.

Takes in each band

020406080
0 — dead wrongscore out of 100100 — nailed it
1460 scored 80+711 scored under 40

Settled or waiting

2,919 / 4,348

graded

1,429 still pending

By season

  • 20211 of 4 graded
  • 202365 of 82 graded
  • 202498 of 113 graded
  • 20251221 of 1402 graded
  • 20261534 of 2747 graded

Who is good at mock draft picks

MissedTakes score for this kind of prediction only — accuracy measured against what a naive guess would have scored. Zero means no better than guessing.

limitedRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.

Why so many dead-wrong answers?

Mock drafts are the single biggest source of zero scores on this site — and it is not because analysts are bad at them. It is because a mock draft asks the same person to do two very different jobs, and only one of them is possible.

Accuracy collapses after round one

Average score out of 100, grouped by the round a player was mocked in. The bar is the score; the note is how far the average pick actually missed by.
  • Round 1 · picks 1–321676 picks · off by 10 on average76.3 avg
  • Round 2 · 33–64112 picks · off by 25 on average49.5 avg
  • Round 3 · 65–10094 picks · off by 33 on average38.7 avg
  • Day 3 · 101–175158 picks · off by 41 on average32.7 avg
  • Late Day 3 · 176+93 picks · off by 50 on average26.9 avg

A first-round mock is a genuinely good prediction. Across 1676 first-round picks the average score is 76.3, missing by about 10 places. By late day 3 that has fallen to 26.9, missing by 50.

The order of the late rounds is close to unknowable. Thirty-two teams making a hundred and fifty picks are working from private boards, trades nobody has made yet, and medical information that never becomes public. 38% of every zero-scored pick we hold was mocked after round two.

Which is a hard thing to score fairly, and looking at this chart is what made us change how we do it. Until 2 August 2026 credit ran out at one full round, so a pick 32 places out and one 128 places out both scored zero — and 29% of every pick we held sat on that floor. Credit now halves every sixteen picks instead: the standard for a good pick is untouched, and being wrong by a round is no longer the same answer as being wrong by four. The methodology records the change and the numbers behind it.

An analyst who mocks all seven rounds is still attempting the hardest version of the exercise, and the back half will always score lower than the front. That is why the leaderboard ranks on MissedTakes Score, which comes from how well a mock ordered the draft rather than from its individual picks — a seven-round mock is judged on the shape it got right, not on the length of its tail.

The players who fooled everyone

Where two or more analysts were more than a round out on the same player. One person being wrong is a take; several being wrong the same way is a story.

These are predictions about where a team would pick, not judgements of the player. A slide says as much about thirty-two front offices as it does about anyone’s evaluation.

By publisher

The same record pooled across everyone writing under one banner.

Every mock draft picks take

1676–1700 of 4,348

  • Hit · 81Mike RennerMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Mansoor Delane to be picked at number 11

    Number 11, Mansoor Delaine, the LSU cornerback to the Miami Dolphins.

    Mansoor DelaneMiami Dolphins

    a naive guess scored 50+37.68 skillsaid Apr 10, 2026the article →
  • Miss · 0JP AcostaMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Cade McDonald to be picked at number 26

    I haven't gone to Ohio State defensive tackle, Caden McDonald.

    Cade McDonaldBuffalo Bills

    a naive guess scored 50+29.46 skillsaid Apr 10, 2026the article →
  • Close · 46JP AcostaMock Draft Picks2026 season

    R Mason Thomas to be picked at number 22

    I'm going with R Mason Thomas, Edge out of Oklahoma.

    R Mason ThomasLos Angeles Chargers

    a naive guess scored 50+29.46 skillsaid Apr 10, 2026the article →
  • Close · 52JP AcostaMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Zion Young to be picked at number 30

    I went with Zion Young, Edge from Missouri.

    Zion YoungMiami Dolphins

    a naive guess scored 50+29.46 skillsaid Apr 10, 2026the article →
  • PendingMike RennerMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Francisco Mauigoa to be picked at number 15

    I'm going guard at 15 too. I'm going Francis Maui Noah to the Tampa Bay Bucs.

    Francisco MauigoaTampa Bay Buccaneers

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Apr 10, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 100Mike RennerMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1

    It is the Las Vegas Raiders, and it's going to be Fernando Mendoza, the Indiana quarterback.

    Fernando MendozaLas Vegas Raiders

    a naive guess scored 50+37.68 skillsaid Apr 10, 2026the article →
  • Close · 71Mike RennerMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Ty Simpson to be picked at number 21

    '21. Pittsburgh Steelers, here's where the drought ends. Ty Simpson coming off the board.

    Ty SimpsonPittsburgh Steelers

    a naive guess scored 50+37.68 skillsaid Apr 10, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 100Mike RennerMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Dillon Thieneman to be picked at number 25

    And I'm going Dylan Thieneman, the Oregon safety at 25 to the Chicago Bears.

    Dillon ThienemanChicago Bears

    a naive guess scored 50+37.68 skillsaid Apr 10, 2026the article →
  • Close · 57JP AcostaMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Monroe Freeling to be picked at number 6

    I have them going Monroe Freeling, offensive tackle from Georgia.

    Monroe FreelingCleveland Browns

    a naive guess scored 50+29.46 skillsaid Apr 10, 2026the article →
  • Close · 62JP AcostaMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Blake Miller to be picked at number 28

    We're going Blake Miller tackle from Clemson.

    Blake MillerHouston Texans

    a naive guess scored 50+29.46 skillsaid Apr 10, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 100Mike RennerMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 3

    So I'm gonna go Jeremiah Love, the Notre Dame running back.

    Jeremiyah LoveArizona Cardinals

    a naive guess scored 50+37.68 skillsaid Apr 10, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 84JP AcostaMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Makai Lemon to be picked at number 16

    I'm going with Mekhi Lemmon... it just makes a lot of sense for him to be the pick there at 16.

    Makai LemonNew York Jets

    a naive guess scored 50+29.46 skillsaid Apr 10, 2026the article →
  • Close · 40JP AcostaMock Draft Picks2026 season

    C.J. Allen to be picked at number 32

    Number 32, the team that won the Super Bowl, Seattle Seahawks... I'm going CJ Allen.

    C.J. AllenSeattle Seahawks

    a naive guess scored 50+29.46 skillsaid Apr 10, 2026the article →
  • Miss · 21JP AcostaMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Avieon Terrell to be picked at number 12

    But if they stay, I'm going with Avion Tyrell from Clemson

    Avieon TerrellDallas Cowboys

    a naive guess scored 50+29.46 skillsaid Apr 10, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 96JP AcostaMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Caleb Downs to be picked at number 10

    The Bengals cannot mess this up. It is Caleb Downs from Ohio State.

    Caleb DownsCincinnati Bengals

    a naive guess scored 50+29.46 skillsaid Apr 10, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 81Fran DuffyMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Dillon Thieneman to be picked at number 20

    his pick at 20 is a pick that I would like at 22. He went with Dylan Thieneman, the Oregon safety

    Dillon ThienemanDallas Cowboys

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 10, 2026the article →
  • Miss · 0Fran DuffyMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Jermott McCoy to be picked at number 12

    he had the cowboys take Jermaine McCoy at 12 ... you write Jermott McCoy, cornerback, Tennessee

    Jermott McCoyDallas Cowboys

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 10, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 92Jeff CavanaughMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Ty Simpson to be picked “top 11 pick” (picks 1–11)

    I have a certain player that we're not really seeing talked about as a top 11 pick that I think there is a pretty decent chance that he will be a top 11 pick. Ty Simpson.

    Ty Simpson

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 10, 2026the article →
  • Miss · 0Tucker FranklinMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Ty Scott to be picked at number 29

    I've been saying it's two months, so I think that there's a real chance he's there twenty nine.

    Ty ScottKansas City Chiefs

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 10, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 100Locked On Chiefs (podcast)Mock Draft Picks2026 season

    Jordyn Tyson to be picked “top 10” (picks 1–10)

    there are a couple of significant factors there that I think make it a possibility that maybe Tyson is in the top 10 now

    Jordyn Tyson

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 10, 2026
  • Hit · 88Locked On Chiefs (podcast)Mock Draft Picks2026 season

    Arvell Reese to be picked at number 2

    I also think, and this is kinda something I mentioned in the first segment, he's more likely going to the Jets at two.

    Arvell ReeseNew York Jets

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 10, 2026
  • Miss · 19Peter BukowskiMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Mike Washington to be picked at number 84

    Now, by the way, that's right in the range where the Packers pick in the third round. And so I don't think it would be surprising if they took him at 84.

    Mike WashingtonGreen Bay Packers

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 10, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 100Nick ShookMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1

    There wasn't much to talk about with the number one overall pick. Yeah, from Nando Mendoza going to the Raiders

    Fernando MendozaLas Vegas Raiders

    a naive guess scored 50+32.27 skillsaid Apr 9, 2026the article →
  • PendingNick ShookMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Olaivavega Ioane to be picked at a slot they never named

    we'll fly through vega IONI to the Dolphins. That would be a statement of an intent type of pick. Penn State guard

    Olaivavega IoaneMiami Dolphins

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Apr 9, 2026the article →
  • Miss · 30Nick ShookMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Avieon Terrell to be picked at number 20

    and then Avian Terrell, AJ's brother, the Clemson cornerback, going to the Cowboys

    Avieon TerrellDallas Cowboys

    a naive guess scored 50+32.27 skillsaid Apr 9, 2026the article →

By topic

NFL — mock draft picks (3000 graded)

Topics we cover today: NFL, US Elections. Every kind of prediction belongs to one of them; this page sits above the topic so that adding another does not mean rewriting every link.