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Mock Draft Picks

Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.

Takes logged
4,357
Graded
2,919

67% settled

Average accuracy
66.0

out of 100

Pundits
215

have made one

How these calls land

Every graded call of this kind, bucketed by score.

Takes in each band

020406080
0 — dead wrongscore out of 100100 — nailed it
1460 scored 80+711 scored under 40

Settled or waiting

2,919 / 4,357

graded

1,438 still pending

By season

  • 20211 of 4 graded
  • 202365 of 82 graded
  • 202498 of 113 graded
  • 20251221 of 1402 graded
  • 20261534 of 2756 graded

Who is good at mock draft picks

MissedTakes score for this kind of prediction only — accuracy measured against what a naive guess would have scored. Zero means no better than guessing.

limitedRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.

Why so many dead-wrong answers?

Mock drafts are the single biggest source of zero scores on this site — and it is not because analysts are bad at them. It is because a mock draft asks the same person to do two very different jobs, and only one of them is possible.

Accuracy collapses after round one

Average score out of 100, grouped by the round a player was mocked in. The bar is the score; the note is how far the average pick actually missed by.
  • Round 1 · picks 1–321676 picks · off by 10 on average76.3 avg
  • Round 2 · 33–64112 picks · off by 25 on average49.5 avg
  • Round 3 · 65–10094 picks · off by 33 on average38.7 avg
  • Day 3 · 101–175158 picks · off by 41 on average32.7 avg
  • Late Day 3 · 176+93 picks · off by 50 on average26.9 avg

A first-round mock is a genuinely good prediction. Across 1676 first-round picks the average score is 76.3, missing by about 10 places. By late day 3 that has fallen to 26.9, missing by 50.

The order of the late rounds is close to unknowable. Thirty-two teams making a hundred and fifty picks are working from private boards, trades nobody has made yet, and medical information that never becomes public. 38% of every zero-scored pick we hold was mocked after round two.

Which is a hard thing to score fairly, and looking at this chart is what made us change how we do it. Until 2 August 2026 credit ran out at one full round, so a pick 32 places out and one 128 places out both scored zero — and 29% of every pick we held sat on that floor. Credit now halves every sixteen picks instead: the standard for a good pick is untouched, and being wrong by a round is no longer the same answer as being wrong by four. The methodology records the change and the numbers behind it.

An analyst who mocks all seven rounds is still attempting the hardest version of the exercise, and the back half will always score lower than the front. That is why the leaderboard ranks on MissedTakes Score, which comes from how well a mock ordered the draft rather than from its individual picks — a seven-round mock is judged on the shape it got right, not on the length of its tail.

The players who fooled everyone

Where two or more analysts were more than a round out on the same player. One person being wrong is a take; several being wrong the same way is a story.

These are predictions about where a team would pick, not judgements of the player. A slide says as much about thirty-two front offices as it does about anyone’s evaluation.

By publisher

The same record pooled across everyone writing under one banner.

Every mock draft picks take

2201–2225 of 4,357

  • Hit · 100Kent SwansonMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Caleb Banks to be picked “within the top 100 picks” (picks 1–100)

    all of these guys are going to be taken within the top 100 picks, I think... Defensive tackle, Caleb Banks out of Florida

    Caleb Banks

    a naive guess scored 50said Mar 26, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 100Kent SwansonMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Chris Johnson to be picked “within the top 100 picks” (picks 1–100)

    all of these guys are going to be taken within the top 100 picks, I think... San Diego State quarterback Chris Johnson

    Chris Johnson

    a naive guess scored 50said Mar 26, 2026the article →
  • PendingMatt VerderameMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Makai Lemon to be picked “going before pick 29”

    So I just wonder with them bringing in two guys that are clearly going before pick 29 in this draft with Lemon and Tate for a visit

    Makai Lemon

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Mar 26, 2026the article →
  • Miss · 0Matt VerderameMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Deny Dennis Sutton to be picked at number 74

    I'm with you. I think 74. Yeah. Because I think you're getting a low ceiling high floor player

    Deny Dennis Sutton

    a naive guess scored 50said Mar 26, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 100Kent SwansonMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Oscar Delp to be picked “within the top 100 picks” (picks 1–100)

    all of these guys are going to be taken within the top 100 picks, I think... tight end Oscar Delp out of Georgia

    Oscar Delp

    a naive guess scored 50said Mar 26, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 100Albert BreerMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Ty Simpson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)

    So, would it surprise me if he won the first round? No. ... it wouldn't surprise me if he winds up going in the first round.

    Ty Simpson

    a naive guess scored 50said Mar 25, 2026the article →
  • Close · 57Field YatesMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Ty Simpson to be picked at number 26

    Our our colleague, Phil Yates, has the Cardinals being that one in his most recent mock draft 26 overall.

    Ty SimpsonArizona Cardinals

    a naive guess scored 50said Mar 25, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 100Rich EisenMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Ty Simpson to be picked “bottom third of the first round” (picks 1–100)

    Well, I mean, the first round, one would think it would be in the bottom third Yeah. Of the first round.

    Ty Simpson

    a naive guess scored 50said Mar 25, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 100Damian ParsonMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Domonique Orange to be picked “day two, probably third round” (picks 65–100)

    I think day two, probably third round, he comes off the board.

    Domonique Orange

    a naive guess scored 50said Mar 25, 2026the article →
  • PendingDamian ParsonMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Ted Hurst to be picked “round two, round three”

    I think a guy like like Ted Hurst, a team gets him round two, round three.

    Ted Hurst

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Mar 25, 2026the article →
  • Close · 44Damian ParsonMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Jake Golday to be picked “late first round” (picks 1–32)

    I think this is a guy that I wouldn't be shocked to hear his name come off the board late first round

    Jake Golday

    a naive guess scored 50said Mar 25, 2026the article →
  • PendingDamian ParsonMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Christian Miller to be picked “round two to round three”

    I think the NFL team is gonna be able to draft him on day two... I think you can get him round two to round three for sure.

    Christian Miller

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Mar 25, 2026the article →
  • PendingField YatesMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Francisco Mauigoa to be picked at number 11

    So if they wind up with Mau and Noah, who's a top five candidate at 11

    Francisco MauigoaMiami Dolphins

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Mar 24, 2026the article →
  • PendingField YatesMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Spencer Fano to be picked at a slot they never named

    with Spencer Fano right behind him. That would be the Ravens choice with the pick that they didn't send to the stee, to the Raiders.

    Spencer FanoBaltimore Ravens

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Mar 24, 2026the article →
  • PendingField YatesMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Makai Lemon to be picked at a slot they never named

    Makai Lemmon being chose chosen by the Jets.

    Makai LemonNew York Jets

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Mar 24, 2026the article →
  • PendingField YatesMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Emmanuel McNeil-Warren to be picked at a slot they never named

    Instead, they're they're gonna go safety, Emmanuel McNeil Warren.

    Emmanuel McNeil-WarrenLos Angeles Chargers

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Mar 24, 2026the article →
  • PendingField YatesMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Keldric Faulk to be picked at a slot they never named

    Kendrick Faulk would go to San Francisco.

    Keldric FaulkSan Francisco 49ers

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Mar 24, 2026the article →
  • Miss · 2Field YatesMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Jermod McCoy to be picked at number 12

    Jermott McCoy, if he goes to Dallas at pick

    Jermod McCoyDallas Cowboys

    a naive guess scored 50+42.31 skillsaid Mar 24, 2026the article →
  • Close · 50Field YatesMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Avieon Terrell to be picked at number 32

    And if the Seahawks ... can get Terrell. Drop it to them at the last pick.

    Avieon TerrellSeattle Seahawks

    a naive guess scored 50+42.31 skillsaid Mar 24, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 100Field YatesMock Draft Picks2026 season

    David Bailey to be picked at number 2

    The Jets will choose David Bailey ... Oh, Bailey's second.

    David BaileyNew York Jets

    a naive guess scored 50+42.31 skillsaid Mar 24, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 84Field YatesMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 7

    Leaving Jeremiah Love for the Washington commanders to take at seven.

    Jeremiyah LoveWashington Commanders

    a naive guess scored 50+42.31 skillsaid Mar 24, 2026the article →
  • PendingField YatesMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Dillon Thieneman to be picked at a slot they never named

    Dylan Feinemann, who has got Viking written all over him, could be the Harrison Smith successor.

    Dillon ThienemanMinnesota Vikings

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Mar 24, 2026the article →
  • Close · 77Field YatesMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Caleb Downs to be picked at number 5

    with the Giants then following up with Caleb Downs fifth overall

    Caleb DownsNew York Giants

    a naive guess scored 50+42.31 skillsaid Mar 24, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 100Field YatesMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1

    Fernando Mendoza is gonna be the first overall pick.

    Fernando Mendoza

    a naive guess scored 50+42.31 skillsaid Mar 24, 2026the article →
  • PendingField YatesMock Draft Picks2026 season

    Jordyn Tyson to be picked at a slot they never named

    The Chiefs would choose Jordan Tyson as the second receiver off the board.

    Jordyn TysonKansas City Chiefs

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Mar 24, 2026the article →

By topic

NFL — mock draft picks (3000 graded)

Topics we cover today: NFL, US Elections. Every kind of prediction belongs to one of them; this page sits above the topic so that adding another does not mean rewriting every link.