Mock Draft Picks
Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.
- Takes logged
- 4,387
- Graded
- 2,919
- Average accuracy
- 66.0
- Pundits
- 216
67% settled
out of 100
have made one
How these calls land
Takes in each band
Settled or waiting
2,919 / 4,387
graded
1,468 still pending
By season
- 20211 of 4 graded
- 202365 of 82 graded
- 202498 of 113 graded
- 20251221 of 1402 graded
- 20261534 of 2786 graded
Who is good at mock draft picks
- Chris Brockman76 accuracy · 36 graded+50.0
- Ryan Tracy48 accuracy · 21 graded+50.0
- John Middlekauff76 accuracy · 19 graded+50.0
- Chris Clark68 accuracy · 16 graded+50.0
- Joel Klatt92 accuracy · 13 graded+50.0
- Tom Pelissero90 accuracy · 13 graded+50.0
- Jeff Cavanaugh82 accuracy · 10 graded+50.0
- Dylan Sanders68 accuracy · 10 graded+50.0
- Dane Brugler87 accuracy · 8 graded+50.0
- Kyle Brandt69 accuracy · 8 graded+50.0
- Jason McIntyre64 accuracy · 6 graded+50.0
- Brian Bosarge18 accuracy · 6 graded+50.0
- Cody Kessler65 accuracy · 5 graded+50.0
- Darrion Gray64 accuracy · 5 graded+50.0
- Bernie Frattle65 accuracy · 4 graded+50.0
- Justin Pugh93 accuracy · 4 graded+50.0
- Lance Moore86 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz50 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Bradley Locker60 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Cynthia Frelund48 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- John Butchko85 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Logan Ryan50 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Brendan Donahue77 accuracy · 16 graded+48.6
- Brady Quinn80 accuracy · 15 graded+47.6
- Rich Eisen84 accuracy · 58 graded+47.5
- Charles Davis84 accuracy · 13 graded+46.4
- Jordan Reid87 accuracy · 14 graded+45.4
- Andy Furman97 accuracy · 7 graded+45.0
- Jason Hirschhorn53 accuracy · 5 graded+45.0
- Jacob Westendorf53 accuracy · 5 graded+45.0
- Andrew Erickson71 accuracy · 12 graded+44.1
- Chad Rader72 accuracy · 10 graded+43.3
- David Harrison64 accuracy · 120 graded+42.8
- Danny Parkins95 accuracy · 25 graded+41.8
- Ryan McCrystal61 accuracy · 36 graded+40.4
- Matt Miller81 accuracy · 44 graded+40.1
- Eric Crocker64 accuracy · 16 graded+40.0
- Chad Reuter58 accuracy · 4 graded+40.0
- Kimmi Chex69 accuracy · 4 graded+40.0
- Lance Zierlein61 accuracy · 27 graded+39.7
- Mike Renner74 accuracy · 98 graded+39.2
- Nate Tice72 accuracy · 20 graded+39.1
- Jaime Eisner44 accuracy · 119 graded+38.9
- Keith Sanchez68 accuracy · 43 graded+38.4
- Peter Schrager74 accuracy · 18 graded+37.5
- Ross Jackson63 accuracy · 142 graded+37.1
- Scott Bogman71 accuracy · 33 graded+37.1
- Brandon Carney81 accuracy · 18 graded+36.9
- Pat Gustavson82 accuracy · 16 graded+34.9
- Nick Wright82 accuracy · 95 graded+34.8
- Brian Peacock68 accuracy · 36 graded+34.5
- Colin Cowherd67 accuracy · 60 graded+34.2
- Pat Fitzmaurice74 accuracy · 42 graded+34.1
- Trevor Sikkema75 accuracy · 17 graded+33.3
- Mel Kiper81 accuracy · 65 graded+33.0
- Field Yates83 accuracy · 30 graded+33.0
- Daniel Wade60 accuracy · 13 graded+32.9
- Derek Brown78 accuracy · 21 graded+32.7
- Nick Shook91 accuracy · 37 graded+32.3
- Todd McShay90 accuracy · 24 graded+31.7
- Gregg Rosenthal79 accuracy · 108 graded+31.2
- Bucky Brooks82 accuracy · 99 graded+30.1
- Ayrton Ostly59 accuracy · 14 graded+30.0
- Kyle Crabbs68 accuracy · 322 graded+29.6
- Emory Hunt50 accuracy · 9 graded+29.2
- Daniel Jeremiah73 accuracy · 226 graded+26.7
- Jourdan Rodrigue70 accuracy · 31 graded+24.5
- JP Acosta67 accuracy · 69 graded+20.5
- Eric Edholm47 accuracy · 4 graded+20.0
- Vinnie Iyer73 accuracy · 8 graded+19.1
- Steve Mensch74 accuracy · 14 graded+16.4
- Peter Bukowski50 accuracy · 26 graded+12.5
- Jonas Knox17 accuracy · 10 graded-5.0
- Mike Mayock51 accuracy · 22 graded-5.2
- Isaiah Stanback66 accuracy · 4 graded-10.0
- Fran Duffy51 accuracy · 8 graded-50.0
limitedRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.
Why so many dead-wrong answers?
Mock drafts are the single biggest source of zero scores on this site — and it is not because analysts are bad at them. It is because a mock draft asks the same person to do two very different jobs, and only one of them is possible.
Accuracy collapses after round one
- Round 1 · picks 1–321676 picks · off by 10 on average76.3 avg
- Round 2 · 33–64112 picks · off by 25 on average49.5 avg
- Round 3 · 65–10094 picks · off by 33 on average38.7 avg
- Day 3 · 101–175158 picks · off by 41 on average32.7 avg
- Late Day 3 · 176+93 picks · off by 50 on average26.9 avg
A first-round mock is a genuinely good prediction. Across 1676 first-round picks the average score is 76.3, missing by about 10 places. By late day 3 that has fallen to 26.9, missing by 50.
The order of the late rounds is close to unknowable. Thirty-two teams making a hundred and fifty picks are working from private boards, trades nobody has made yet, and medical information that never becomes public. 38% of every zero-scored pick we hold was mocked after round two.
Which is a hard thing to score fairly, and looking at this chart is what made us change how we do it. Until 2 August 2026 credit ran out at one full round, so a pick 32 places out and one 128 places out both scored zero — and 29% of every pick we held sat on that floor. Credit now halves every sixteen picks instead: the standard for a good pick is untouched, and being wrong by a round is no longer the same answer as being wrong by four. The methodology records the change and the numbers behind it.
An analyst who mocks all seven rounds is still attempting the hardest version of the exercise, and the back half will always score lower than the front. That is why the leaderboard ranks on MissedTakes Score, which comes from how well a mock ordered the draft rather than from its individual picks — a seven-round mock is judged on the shape it got right, not on the length of its tail.
The players who fooled everyone
- Jermod McCoyCB24 mocksmocked around 15 · went at 101
- Shedeur SandersQB18 mocksmocked around 8 · went at 144
- Emmanuel McNeil-WarrenS11 mocksmocked around 21 · went at 58
- Emmanuel PregnonG7 mocksmocked around 35 · went at 88
- Will JohnsonCB7 mocksmocked around 10 · went at 47
These are predictions about where a team would pick, not judgements of the player. A slide says as much about thirty-two front offices as it does about anyone’s evaluation.
By publisher
- Locked On Chiefs (podcast)67.8 · 53 graded
- Locked On Bills (podcast)55.8 · 36 graded
- Fox Sports Radio (podcast)94.9 · 42 graded
- Locked On Lions (podcast)81.1 · 26 graded
- The Dan Patrick Show (podcast)91.8 · 14 graded
- Sharp Football Analysis68.9 · 52 graded
- The Rich Eisen Podcast (podcast)97.3 · 12 graded
- Locked On Commanders (podcast)60.4 · 126 graded
- The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)74.9 · 232 graded
- The Draft Network42.6 · 162 graded
- The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)79.5 · 233 graded
- Locked On Saints (podcast)63.5 · 182 graded
- John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast)63.4 · 13 graded
- Locked On Chargers (podcast)70.4 · 26 graded
- KC Sports Network (podcast)67.5 · 95 graded
- Bran Coverage with BenchwarmerBran (podcast)84.6 · 34 graded
- Locked On 49ers (podcast)70.1 · 72 graded
- First Things First (podcast)79.7 · 119 graded
- Around the NFL (podcast)78.7 · 232 graded
- NFL Live (podcast)92.7 · 22 graded
- Move the Sticks (podcast)72.4 · 350 graded
- Pushing the Pile (podcast)69.6 · 212 graded
- Locked On Rams (podcast)50.0 · 14 graded
- The 33rd Team63.7 · 349 graded
- Locked On Packers (podcast)52.4 · 39 graded
- 2 Pros and a Cup of Joe (podcast)68.6 · 26 graded
- DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast)71.6 · 72 graded
- Overreaction Monday (podcast)62.5 · 38 graded
- The Colin Cowherd Podcast (podcast)77.8 · 13 graded
- Walter Football99.6 · 6 graded
- Locked On Cardinals (podcast)88.4 · 6 graded
- Sports Illustrated50.0 · 4 graded
- Nightcap (podcast)66.7 · 3 graded
- Fox Sports0.0 · 1 graded
- Pro Football Focus100.0 · 1 graded
- 4for4100.0 · 1 graded
- CBS Sports36.9 · 1 graded
Every mock draft picks take
4151–4175 of 4,387
Grey Zabel to be picked at number 10
So this is what Jack cooked up... For the Shaker, the Bears take Gray Zabel at ten.
Trey Amos to be picked “top fifty picks”
I think he's going to go in the top fifty picks when it's all said and done.
James Pearce Jr. to be picked “gone by the early twenties”
I think they're both gone by the early twenties. I think they'll come off the board.
Shemar Stewart to be picked “gone by the early twenties”
I would guess those guys, I mean, I think they're both gone by the early twenties. I think they'll come off the board.
- Close · 52Move the SticksMock Draft Picks2025 season
Will Johnson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
if we're talking corners, right, feel like Will Johnson and Jday Baron are are first round talents, right, gonna go in the first round.
a naive guess scored 50said Mar 4, 2025 Jahdae Barron to be picked “top fifteen” (picks 1–15)
it makes him a very attractive candidate to be maybe a top fifteen player
Quinn Ewers to be picked “second round” (picks 33–64)
I don't think he's going to be a first round pick... But if he gets to the second round
Kirk Cousins to be picked “mid to later round guy”
Coucord for me, reminded me of Kirk Cousins, a little bit of a mid to later round guy could potentially become a starter.
Shedeur Sanders to be picked “not falling out of the top 10” (picks 1–10)
So I don't think he's falling out of the top 10 at all. No way, man.
Jaxson Dart to be picked “taken the end of the first round” (picks 1–32)
So I think Jackson Dart is gonna get taken the end of the first round.
Shedeur Sanders to be picked “not falling out of the top 10” (picks 1–10)
So I don't think he's falling out of the top 10 at all. No way, man.
Shedeur Sanders to be picked “fall out of the top 10” (picks 1–10)
Shador Sanders. Yes. He's gonna fall out of the top 10.
Cam Skattebo to be picked at number 1
That's the number one player on my board and my mock I have him going to the Titans. Number one overall that's Cam Scataboo.
- Hit · 100Move the SticksMock Draft Picks2025 season
James Pearce Jr. to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
The guy I looked at was actually Pierce Junior from Tennessee... He's one of the guys that will slip into that first round right there.
a naive guess scored 50said Mar 3, 2025 Armand Membou to be picked “a chance he could go in the top ten” (picks 1–10)
there's. A chance there's a chance he could go in the top ten in, THIS draft
Malaki Starks to be picked “may have snuck into the first round” (picks 1–32)
he may have snuck into the first round
Maxwell Hairston to be picked “maybe in the first round and certainly in the first forty to fifty picks” (picks 1–32)
one that has a chance to get taken maybe in the first round and certainly in the first, you know forty to. Fifty, picks
Cam Ward to be picked at number 1
There's a decent chance cam Wards still goes number one, whether it's to the Titans or a team trading up, and that he is not going to fall, you know, past the first couple of picks
Bhayshul Tuten to be picked “goes earlier than expected”
With Tuton, we're on the street. He's gaining some serious attention. So keep his name on your radar as somebody who goes earlier than expected.
Jayden Higgins to be picked “a very intriguing second round type of player” (picks 33–64)
That that sort of talent to me seems like a very intriguing second round type of. Player
Nick Emmanwori to be picked “first round pick” (picks 1–32)
yeah he's the first, round pick he's the first safety out, the board
Quinshon Judkins to be picked “top fifty”
one of the two Ohio state running backs that we'll get taken top fifty, I would say
Brady Cook to be picked “not going to get drafted”
Yeah, he's not gonna get drafted.
TreVeyon Henderson to be picked “top fifty”
one of the two Ohio state running backs that we'll get taken top fifty, I would say
Jalen Milroe to be picked “second round type of selection” (picks 33–64)
but that does still feel like a second round type of selection in similarity to how the Eagles went about getting Jalen Hurts. I think that could still be the Milroe situation.
By topic
NFL — mock draft picks (3000 graded)
Topics we cover today: NFL, US Elections. Every kind of prediction belongs to one of them; this page sits above the topic so that adding another does not mean rewriting every link.