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Mock Draft Picks

Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.

Takes logged
4,387
Graded
2,919

67% settled

Average accuracy
66.0

out of 100

Pundits
216

have made one

How these calls land

Every graded call of this kind, bucketed by score.

Takes in each band

020406080
0 — dead wrongscore out of 100100 — nailed it
1460 scored 80+711 scored under 40

Settled or waiting

2,919 / 4,387

graded

1,468 still pending

By season

  • 20211 of 4 graded
  • 202365 of 82 graded
  • 202498 of 113 graded
  • 20251221 of 1402 graded
  • 20261534 of 2786 graded

Who is good at mock draft picks

MissedTakes score for this kind of prediction only — accuracy measured against what a naive guess would have scored. Zero means no better than guessing.

limitedRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.

Why so many dead-wrong answers?

Mock drafts are the single biggest source of zero scores on this site — and it is not because analysts are bad at them. It is because a mock draft asks the same person to do two very different jobs, and only one of them is possible.

Accuracy collapses after round one

Average score out of 100, grouped by the round a player was mocked in. The bar is the score; the note is how far the average pick actually missed by.
  • Round 1 · picks 1–321676 picks · off by 10 on average76.3 avg
  • Round 2 · 33–64112 picks · off by 25 on average49.5 avg
  • Round 3 · 65–10094 picks · off by 33 on average38.7 avg
  • Day 3 · 101–175158 picks · off by 41 on average32.7 avg
  • Late Day 3 · 176+93 picks · off by 50 on average26.9 avg

A first-round mock is a genuinely good prediction. Across 1676 first-round picks the average score is 76.3, missing by about 10 places. By late day 3 that has fallen to 26.9, missing by 50.

The order of the late rounds is close to unknowable. Thirty-two teams making a hundred and fifty picks are working from private boards, trades nobody has made yet, and medical information that never becomes public. 38% of every zero-scored pick we hold was mocked after round two.

Which is a hard thing to score fairly, and looking at this chart is what made us change how we do it. Until 2 August 2026 credit ran out at one full round, so a pick 32 places out and one 128 places out both scored zero — and 29% of every pick we held sat on that floor. Credit now halves every sixteen picks instead: the standard for a good pick is untouched, and being wrong by a round is no longer the same answer as being wrong by four. The methodology records the change and the numbers behind it.

An analyst who mocks all seven rounds is still attempting the hardest version of the exercise, and the back half will always score lower than the front. That is why the leaderboard ranks on MissedTakes Score, which comes from how well a mock ordered the draft rather than from its individual picks — a seven-round mock is judged on the shape it got right, not on the length of its tail.

The players who fooled everyone

Where two or more analysts were more than a round out on the same player. One person being wrong is a take; several being wrong the same way is a story.

These are predictions about where a team would pick, not judgements of the player. A slide says as much about thirty-two front offices as it does about anyone’s evaluation.

By publisher

The same record pooled across everyone writing under one banner.

Every mock draft picks take

4126–4150 of 4,387

  • Hit · 84Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Jaxson Dart to be picked at number 21

    Jackson's Dart going twenty one to the Steelers

    Jaxson DartPittsburgh Steelers

    a naive guess scored 50+28.6 skillsaid Mar 20, 2025the article →
  • Hit · 100Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Armand Membou to be picked at number 7

    behind armand Membu, who's going number seven to the Jets

    Armand MembouNew York Jets

    a naive guess scored 50+28.6 skillsaid Mar 20, 2025the article →
  • Close · 77Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Will Campbell to be picked at number 10

    Will Campbell the tackle from LSU go to the Bears. At ten

    Will CampbellChicago Bears

    a naive guess scored 50+28.6 skillsaid Mar 20, 2025the article →
  • Miss · 0Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Shedeur Sanders to be picked at number 3

    Sedar Sanders is up to number three with the Giants.

    Shedeur SandersNew York Giants

    a naive guess scored 50+28.6 skillsaid Mar 20, 2025the article →
  • PendingDaniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Jalen McMillan to be picked at number 22

    you have them twenty two going to the Los Angeles Chargers... I think it's possible. Maybe it's not likely he gets all the way to twenty two

    Jalen McMillanLos Angeles Chargers

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Mar 20, 2025the article →
  • Miss · 15Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Azareye'h Thomas to be picked at number 29

    and then the cornerback as Aarya Thomas from Florida State at twenty nine

    Azareye'h Thomas

    a naive guess scored 50+28.6 skillsaid Mar 20, 2025the article →
  • Close · 65Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Jalon Walker to be picked at number 5

    Jalen Walker from of the linebacker going to the Jaguars at five

    Jalon WalkerJacksonville Jaguars

    a naive guess scored 50+28.6 skillsaid Mar 20, 2025the article →
  • PendingDaniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Kelvin Banks Jr. to be picked at a slot they never named

    You had him going Kelvin Banks, who plays the same position [to the Houston Texans]

    Kelvin Banks Jr.Houston Texans

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Mar 20, 2025the article →
  • Close · 55Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Malaki Starks to be picked at number 13

    Yeah, Starks to the Dolphins. I should have mentioned at thirteen.

    Malaki StarksMiami Dolphins

    a naive guess scored 50+28.6 skillsaid Mar 20, 2025the article →
  • Hit · 100Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Cam Ward to be picked at number 1

    So this time around, we got cam Ward number one... So that's why I've slotted cam Ward in at the number one spot.

    Cam WardTennessee Titans

    a naive guess scored 50+28.6 skillsaid Mar 20, 2025the article →
  • Miss · 34Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Donovan Ezeiruaku to be picked at number 19

    Donovan Azeraku go into the Bucks at night... now he's all the way up to nineteen

    Donovan EzeiruakuTampa Bay Buccaneers

    a naive guess scored 50+28.6 skillsaid Mar 20, 2025the article →
  • Hit · 100Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Tyler Booker to be picked “latter third of the first round” (picks 1–102)

    So I think Booker get he'll get back in, He'll get back into the latter third. I would say of the first round.

    Tyler Booker

    a naive guess scored 50+28.6 skillsaid Mar 20, 2025the article →
  • Miss · 1Peter SchragerMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Shedeur Sanders to be picked “first round pick” (picks 1–32)

    I still think Shador Sanders is going to be a first round pick

    Shedeur Sanders

    a naive guess scored 50said Mar 13, 2025the article →
  • PendingPeter SchragerMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Shedeur Sanders to be picked “the second or third pick in this draft”

    I still think he's very much in line to be the second or third pick in this draft.

    Shedeur Sanders

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Mar 13, 2025the article →
  • PendingChris BrockmanMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Ashton Jeanty to be picked “anywhere from eight to the Steelers at, like, 21”

    I I'm seeing Gentry go anywhere from, I don't know, Chris, like, eight to to the Steelers at, like, 21.

    Ashton Jeanty

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Mar 6, 2025the article →
  • Hit · 100Chris RoseMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Cam Ward to be picked at number 1

    the Browns are going to trade up to one and take cam Ward

    Cam WardCleveland Browns

    a naive guess scored 50said Mar 6, 2025the article →
  • Hit · 100Peter SchragerMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Cam Ward to be picked at number 1

    I think it's a really good chance that it goes cam Ward one Shador Sanders too

    Cam Ward

    a naive guess scored 50+50 skillsaid Mar 4, 2025the article →
  • Miss · 0Peter SchragerMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Shedeur Sanders to be picked at number 2

    I think it's a really good chance that it goes cam Ward one Shador Sanders too

    Shedeur Sanders

    a naive guess scored 50+50 skillsaid Mar 4, 2025the article →
  • PendingDaniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Landon Jackson to be picked “thirty to forty”

    So he's going in the top fifty picks. It's just a matter of where he goes. To me, he feels like if I was going to guess thirty to forty

    Landon Jackson

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Mar 4, 2025the article →
  • Close · 62Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Anthony Belton to be picked “third round type” (picks 65–102)

    I have Jayalen, Travis, Logan Brown, Anthony Belton... always like third round type type guys.

    Anthony Belton

    a naive guess scored 50said Mar 4, 2025the article →
  • Miss · 34Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Jalen Travis to be picked “third round type” (picks 65–102)

    I have Jayalen, Travis, Logan Brown, Anthony Belton. Those guys are all together in my little clump right there. All is sixty one always like third round type type guys.

    Jalen Travis

    a naive guess scored 50said Mar 4, 2025the article →
  • Miss · 0Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Logan Brown to be picked “third round type” (picks 65–102)

    I have Jayalen, Travis, Logan Brown, Anthony Belton... always like third round type type guys.

    Logan Brown

    a naive guess scored 50said Mar 4, 2025the article →
  • PendingDaniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Matthew Golden to be picked “somewhere between ten and twenty”

    He was my twenty second player coming into this. He'll be in from somewhere between ten and twenty.

    Matthew Golden

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Mar 4, 2025the article →
  • Hit · 100Move the SticksMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Jahdae Barron to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)

    feel like Will Johnson and Jday Baron are are first round talents, right, gonna go in the first round.

    Jahdae Barron

    a naive guess scored 50said Mar 4, 2025
  • Hit · 96Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins to be picked “fourth round” (picks 103–138)

    he was not my top fifty, but he's to me, I had him like he's a fourth round guy.

    Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins

    a naive guess scored 50said Mar 4, 2025the article →

By topic

NFL — mock draft picks (3000 graded)

Topics we cover today: NFL, US Elections. Every kind of prediction belongs to one of them; this page sits above the topic so that adding another does not mean rewriting every link.