Mock Draft Picks
Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.
- Takes logged
- 4,334
- Graded
- 2,919
- Average accuracy
- 65.3
- Pundits
- 211
67% settled
out of 100
have made one
How these calls land
Takes in each band
Settled or waiting
2,919 / 4,334
graded
1,415 still pending
By season
- 20211 of 4 graded
- 202365 of 82 graded
- 202498 of 113 graded
- 20251221 of 1402 graded
- 20261534 of 2733 graded
Who is good at mock draft picks
- Chris Brockman75 accuracy · 36 graded+50.0
- Ryan Tracy48 accuracy · 21 graded+50.0
- John Middlekauff76 accuracy · 19 graded+50.0
- Chris Clark68 accuracy · 16 graded+50.0
- Tom Pelissero90 accuracy · 13 graded+50.0
- Joel Klatt92 accuracy · 13 graded+50.0
- Jeff Cavanaugh82 accuracy · 10 graded+50.0
- Dylan Sanders68 accuracy · 10 graded+50.0
- Kyle Brandt69 accuracy · 8 graded+50.0
- Dane Brugler87 accuracy · 8 graded+50.0
- Jason McIntyre64 accuracy · 6 graded+50.0
- Brian Bosarge18 accuracy · 6 graded+50.0
- Cody Kessler65 accuracy · 5 graded+50.0
- Darrion Gray64 accuracy · 5 graded+50.0
- Justin Pugh93 accuracy · 4 graded+50.0
- Bernie Frattle65 accuracy · 4 graded+50.0
- Natalie Kerwin84 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Bradley Locker60 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Lance Moore86 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz50 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Logan Ryan50 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Cynthia Frelund48 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- John Butchko85 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Brendan Donahue77 accuracy · 16 graded+48.6
- Brady Quinn80 accuracy · 15 graded+47.6
- Chad Reuter58 accuracy · 4 graded+47.5
- Jason Hirschhorn53 accuracy · 5 graded+47.0
- Jacob Westendorf53 accuracy · 5 graded+47.0
- Rich Eisen84 accuracy · 58 graded+46.7
- Jordan Reid87 accuracy · 14 graded+46.5
- Charles Davis84 accuracy · 13 graded+46.4
- Andy Furman97 accuracy · 7 graded+45.0
- Andrew Erickson71 accuracy · 12 graded+43.5
- Chad Rader72 accuracy · 10 graded+43.3
- David Harrison64 accuracy · 120 graded+43.2
- Ryan McCrystal61 accuracy · 36 graded+40.4
- Matt Miller81 accuracy · 44 graded+40.4
- Emory Hunt47 accuracy · 9 graded+40.1
- Kimmi Chex69 accuracy · 4 graded+40.0
- Danny Parkins95 accuracy · 25 graded+39.7
- Mike Renner74 accuracy · 98 graded+39.5
- Ross Jackson63 accuracy · 142 graded+38.4
- Peter Schrager74 accuracy · 18 graded+37.5
- Keith Sanchez68 accuracy · 43 graded+37.4
- Nate Tice72 accuracy · 20 graded+37.2
- Jaime Eisner44 accuracy · 119 graded+36.7
- Pat Fitzmaurice70 accuracy · 42 graded+36.3
- Vinnie Iyer73 accuracy · 8 graded+36.3
- Lance Zierlein58 accuracy · 27 graded+36.2
- Brandon Carney78 accuracy · 18 graded+35.8
- Colin Cowherd67 accuracy · 60 graded+35.7
- Scott Bogman68 accuracy · 33 graded+35.6
- Nick Wright82 accuracy · 95 graded+34.8
- Brian Peacock68 accuracy · 36 graded+34.7
- Trevor Sikkema75 accuracy · 17 graded+33.3
- Daniel Wade60 accuracy · 13 graded+32.9
- Nick Shook91 accuracy · 37 graded+32.3
- Pat Gustavson82 accuracy · 16 graded+32.3
- Field Yates81 accuracy · 30 graded+32.2
- Todd McShay90 accuracy · 24 graded+31.3
- Gregg Rosenthal79 accuracy · 108 graded+30.9
- Bucky Brooks78 accuracy · 99 graded+30.4
- Mel Kiper81 accuracy · 65 graded+30.2
- Eric Crocker64 accuracy · 16 graded+30.0
- Ayrton Ostley59 accuracy · 14 graded+28.7
- Kyle Crabbs68 accuracy · 322 graded+28.5
- Derek Brown78 accuracy · 21 graded+26.8
- Daniel Jeremiah72 accuracy · 226 graded+26.7
- Jourdan Rodrigue70 accuracy · 31 graded+24.5
- JP Acosta66 accuracy · 69 graded+22.2
- Steve Mensch74 accuracy · 14 graded+20.9
- Eric Edholm47 accuracy · 4 graded+20.0
- Peter Bukowski50 accuracy · 26 graded+12.5
- Jonas Knox17 accuracy · 10 graded-5.0
- Mike Mayock51 accuracy · 22 graded-5.2
- Isaiah Stanback66 accuracy · 4 graded-10.0
- Fran Duffy51 accuracy · 8 graded-50.0
limitedRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.
Why so many dead-wrong answers?
Mock drafts are the single biggest source of zero scores on this site — and it is not because analysts are bad at them. It is because a mock draft asks the same person to do two very different jobs, and only one of them is possible.
Accuracy collapses after round one
- Round 1 · picks 1–321653 picks · off by 10 on average76.4 avg
- Round 2 · 33–64112 picks · off by 25 on average49.5 avg
- Round 3 · 65–10093 picks · off by 34 on average38.8 avg
- Day 3 · 101–175158 picks · off by 41 on average32.7 avg
- Late Day 3 · 176+93 picks · off by 50 on average26.9 avg
A first-round mock is a genuinely good prediction. Across 1653 first-round picks the average score is 76.4, missing by about 10 places. By late day 3 that has fallen to 26.9, missing by 50.
The order of the late rounds is close to unknowable. Thirty-two teams making a hundred and fifty picks are working from private boards, trades nobody has made yet, and medical information that never becomes public. 38% of every zero-scored pick we hold was mocked after round two.
Which is a hard thing to score fairly, and looking at this chart is what made us change how we do it. Until 2 August 2026 credit ran out at one full round, so a pick 32 places out and one 128 places out both scored zero — and 29% of every pick we held sat on that floor. Credit now halves every sixteen picks instead: the standard for a good pick is untouched, and being wrong by a round is no longer the same answer as being wrong by four. The methodology records the change and the numbers behind it.
An analyst who mocks all seven rounds is still attempting the hardest version of the exercise, and the back half will always score lower than the front. That is why the leaderboard ranks on MissedTakes Score, which comes from how well a mock ordered the draft rather than from its individual picks — a seven-round mock is judged on the shape it got right, not on the length of its tail.
The players who fooled everyone
- Jermod McCoyCB22 mocksmocked around 16 · went at 101
- Shedeur SandersQB18 mocksmocked around 8 · went at 144
- Emmanuel McNeil-WarrenSAF11 mocksmocked around 21 · went at 58
- Will JohnsonCB7 mocksmocked around 10 · went at 47
- C.J. AllenLB7 mocksmocked around 18 · went at 53
These are predictions about where a team would pick, not judgements of the player. A slide says as much about thirty-two front offices as it does about anyone’s evaluation.
By publisher
- Locked On Bills (podcast)55.8 · 36 graded
- Locked On Chiefs (podcast)67.8 · 53 graded
- Fox Sports Radio (podcast)94.9 · 42 graded
- Locked On Lions (podcast)81.1 · 26 graded
- The Dan Patrick Show (podcast)91.8 · 14 graded
- Sharp Football Analysis68.9 · 52 graded
- Locked On Commanders (podcast)60.4 · 126 graded
- The Rich Eisen Podcast (podcast)97.3 · 12 graded
- The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)74.7 · 232 graded
- Locked On Chargers (podcast)70.4 · 26 graded
- Locked On Saints (podcast)63.5 · 182 graded
- The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)79.0 · 233 graded
- KC Sports Network (podcast)66.5 · 95 graded
- The Draft Network42.6 · 162 graded
- First Things First (podcast)79.7 · 119 graded
- Bran Coverage with BenchwarmerBran (podcast)83.7 · 34 graded
- Around the NFL (podcast)77.0 · 232 graded
- Locked On 49ers (podcast)69.8 · 72 graded
- John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast)55.1 · 13 graded
- Locked On Rams (podcast)50.0 · 14 graded
- Pushing the Pile (podcast)68.9 · 212 graded
- Move the Sticks (podcast)71.2 · 350 graded
- The 33rd Team63.7 · 349 graded
- NFL Live (podcast)92.7 · 22 graded
- Locked On Packers (podcast)52.4 · 39 graded
- DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast)71.6 · 72 graded
- 2 Pros and a Cup of Joe (podcast)68.6 · 26 graded
- Overreaction Monday (podcast)62.5 · 38 graded
- The Colin Cowherd Podcast (podcast)77.8 · 13 graded
- Walter Football99.6 · 6 graded
- Locked On Cardinals (podcast)88.4 · 6 graded
- Nightcap (podcast)66.7 · 3 graded
- Pro Football Focus100.0 · 1 graded
- Fox Sports0.0 · 1 graded
- CBS Sports36.9 · 1 graded
- 4for4100.0 · 1 graded
Every mock draft picks take
926–950 of 4,334
Zach Lutmer to be picked “Round 1-3”
Zach Lutmer*, CB, Iowa ... Projected Round (2027): 1-3.
Daniel Harris to be picked “Round 6-FA”
Daniel Harris, CB, California ... Projected Round (2027): 6-FA.
Jermaine Mathews Jr. to be picked “Round 4-6”
Jermaine Mathews Jr., CB, Ohio State ... Projected Round (2027): 4-6.
Romanas Frederique Jr. to be picked “Round 1-3”
Romanas Frederique Jr.*, CB, Miami ... Projected Round (2027): 1-3.
Vicari Swain to be picked “Round 1-2”
Vicari Swain*, CB, South Carolina ... Projected Round (2027): 1-2.
Leonard Moore to be picked “Round 1”
Leonard Moore*, CB, Notre Dame ... Projected Round (2027): 1.
Zeke Berry to be picked “Round 1-2”
Zeke Berry*, CB, Michigan ... Projected Round (2027): 1-2.
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
Why would the Raiders sign Kirk Cousins for $20 million when they're just going to draft Fernando Mendoza No. 1 overall?
Duce Robinson to be picked “first-round conversation” (picks 1–32)
Improved technique, not simply another large stat line, could move him into the first-round conversation.
Zalance Heard to be picked “first-round possibility” (picks 1–32)
Strong September tape could establish Heard as a first-round possibility.
Trinidad Chambliss to be picked “Day 2 option” (picks 33–100)
If those areas improve, Chambliss can become a legitimate Day 2 option.
David Stone to be picked “Round 1”
David Stone ... Early grade: Round 1 ... he doesn't need to improve much to end up a first-rounder.
Tavion Gadson to be picked “Day 2” (picks 33–100)
Tavion Gadson ... Early grade: Day 2
Justin Scott to be picked “Early Day 2” (picks 33–67)
Justin Scott ... Early grade: Early Day 2
Horace Lockett to be picked “Late Day 2” (picks 67–100)
Horace Lockett ... Early grade: Late Day 2
A.J. Holmes Jr. to be picked “Late Day 2” (picks 67–100)
A.J. Holmes Jr. ... Early grade: Late Day 2
Darius Alexander to be picked “Late Date 2”
Bear Alexander ... Early grade: Late Date 2
Ahmad Moten Sr. to be picked “Day 2” (picks 33–100)
Ahmad Moten Sr. ... Early grade: Day 2
Francis Brewu to be picked “Day 2” (picks 33–100)
Francis Brewu ... Early grade: Day 2
A'Mauri Washington to be picked “Round 1”
A'Mauri Washington ... Early grade: Round 1
Will Echoles to be picked “Round 1”
Will Echoles ... Early grade: Round 1
Jordan Seaton to be picked at number 10
In his early 2027 mock draft , Renner paired LSU offensive tackle Jordan Seaton, a Colorado transfer, with the Giants at pick No. 10.
Sammy Brown to be picked “Round 1”
Early grade: Round 1 — Brown has all the makings of a first-round linebacker
Tony Rojas to be picked “Day 2” (picks 33–100)
Early grade: Day 2 ... if he's even the same guy he was last year you can put him down safely as a Day 2 pick.
Jordan Hall to be picked “Early Day 3” (picks 101–179)
Player type: Two-down linebacker / Early grade: Early Day 3
By sport
NFL — mock draft picks (3000 graded)
The NFL is the only sport we cover today. This page exists so that adding a second one does not mean rewriting every link.