Bills vs Texans predictions, graded
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans · Week 1, 2026 · Sun, Sep 13 · Final: Bills 36, Texans 31 · Updated
Who do pundits pick in Bills vs Texans? Of 28 pundits with a call on record, 23 take the Texans and 5 take the Bills. 8 named a score; the median has the Texans by 2.5. The Bills won 36-31, so 5 of 28 had the winner. Their graded calls averaged 31 out of 100.
Who the room took
28 pundits · each counted once, by their latest callBills vs Texans picks by outlet
Each pundit counted once, at the outlet or show their latest call ran on. An outlet is listed when two or more of its pundits have picked.
- Sports IllustratedTexans 7, Bills 2
- CBS SportsTexans 5, Bills 1
- First Things First (podcast)Texans 3, Bills 1
- John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast)all 3 Texans
The other 6 pundits write or talk elsewhere: Texans 5, Bills 1.
Bills vs Texans score predictions
8 pundits named a score; the median call is Texans by 2.5, and the final was Bills by 5.
Each dot is one pundit’s latest score call, placed at the winning margin it named. The solid bar is how the game actually finished. Hover or tap a dot for the pundit and the score.
- Lance ZierleinTexans 23, Bills 17Close · 48
- Carter BahnsTexans 24, Bills 20Close · 48
- Jordan DajaniTexans 23, Bills 21Close · 43
- Jared DubinTexans 20, Bills 17Close · 45
- Richard ShermanBills 20, Texans 14Hit · 98
- Mike FlorioTexans 20, Bills 16Close · 48
- Pete PriscoBills 23, Texans 20Hit · 95
- John BreechTexans 20, Bills 19Close · 40
Bills at Texans: how they came in
The Bills went 12-5 last season and the Texans went 12-5 last season. On win totals, 13 pundits put the Bills at 11.4 wins on average, and 20 pundits put the Texans at 10.2 wins on average.
NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
- Record coming in
- 0-0
- Unit ranks
- offense 1st, defense 12th of 32 (this season)
- Last season
- 12-5
- Win-total calls
- 13 pundits · average 11.4 · 10 to 14 wins
- Record coming in
- 0-0
- Unit ranks
- offense 7th, defense 10th of 32 (this season)
- Last season
- 12-5
- Win-total calls
- 22 pundits · average 10.2 · 1 to 17 wins
Bills and Texans players to watch
Each club’s starting quarterback, leading rusher, receiver and tight end, and its sack and tackle leaders, with their 2026 regular season so far, with the latest call on each from a pundit on our leaderboard whose record beats the naive pick (69 pundits clear that bar), made since the 2026 schedule came out. “No.” is their rank there.
Bills
- Josh AllenStarting QB · QB
2,027 passing yards · 12 TD, 6 INT · 66.1% completions · 285 rushing yards · 8 games · 12th in the NFL in passing yards
Josh Allen to finish top 1 at his position, by passing yards
“Josh Allen, best quarterback in the league, continuity with the coaching, an upgrade in DJ Moore” the article →
Josh Allen to win MVP
“If the MVP vote happened today, Allen would be the winner .” the article →
- James CookRB1 · RB
814 rushing yards on 169 carries · 8 TD · 12 catches for 110 · 8 games · 5th in the NFL in rushing yards
James Cook to make the roster
“the three running backs you would expect, James Cook, Ray Davis, and Ty Johnson” the article →
James Cook to finish top 3 at his position, by fantasy points
“James Cook, I'm all in. I think we see he sets a career high in receptions, the top three running back season.” the article →
- Khalil ShakirWR1 · WR
31 catches for 412 yards · 1 TD · 8 games · 35th in the NFL in receiving yards
Khalil Shakir to make the roster
“DJ Moore, Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Joshua Palmer, Skyler Bell, Trent Sherfield, the six that I have making it.” the article →
Khalil Shakir to be 2nd on the depth chart
“Even if Moore is out this week, Shakir is probably no better than the No. 2 target in the Buffalo passing attack behind surging tight end Dalton Kincaid.” the article →
- Dalton KincaidTE1 · TE
30 catches for 429 yards · 2 TD · 8 games · 32nd in the NFL in receiving yards
Dalton Kincaid to make the roster
“At tight end, I have the Bills keeping three, Jackson Hawes, Dalton Kinkade, Dawson Knox” the article →
Dalton Kincaid to fall short of his draft cost (TE11, Overall RK114 | ECR vs. ADP: -14)
“if he plays limited snaps again this season and his efficiency numbers regress to career norms, Kincaid could disappoint. It's best to regard him as a high-end TE2 for fantasy drafts.” the article →
- Greg RousseauSack leader · LB
8 sacks · 17 solo tackles · 8 games · 2nd in the NFL in sacks
Greg Rousseau to make the roster
“I have the Bills keeping five. Bradley Chubb, Greg Russo, TJ Parker, Michael Hoyt, and Javon Solomon.” the article →
- Amani HookerTackle leader · S
32 solo tackles · 5 interceptions · 7 games · 34th in the NFL in solo tackles
Amani Hooker to move — “could be moved if they found a good offer”
“I'm not sure the Titans are actively shopping Hooker, but he could be moved if they found a good offer.” the article →
Texans
- C.J. StroudStarting QB · QB
2,251 passing yards · 16 TD, 2 INT · 64.2% completions · 100 rushing yards · 8 games · 7th in the NFL in passing yards
C.J. Stroud: “if he continues his strong play, the Texans will be forced to pay Stroud as one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the NFL”
“And if the Texans do wind up being forced to pay Stroud as one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the NFL, they'll be due to pay for it in the form of making some big sacrifices around a talented roster.” the article →
C.J. Stroud: “if he just finishes like this, 65,000,000 a year and the highest paid quarterback”
“if the season ended today and you're doing a CJ Stroud contract, it's fucking 65,000,000 a year... But if he just finishes like this... I don't know how you don't make him the highest paid quarterback based on where he is on his contract.” the article →
- Woody MarksRB1 · RB
341 rushing yards on 95 carries · 2 TD · 15 catches for 98 · 8 games · 28th in the NFL in rushing yards
Woody Marks to be 1st on the depth chart
“Houston's running back room will once again be held down by Woody Marks as the leader in the backfield, paired with veterans Dare Ogunbowale and Emari Demercado as his primary backups.” the article →
Woody Marks to be 1st on the depth chart
“So he's going to have this backfield to himself. He not only is going to get a vast majority of the carries while David Montgomery is out” the article →
- Nico CollinsWR1 · WR
28 catches for 384 yards · 4 TD · 6 games · 42nd in the NFL in receiving yards
Nico Collins to be 1st on the depth chart
“Nico Collins is going to remain WR1 as he has for the past three seasons.” the article →
“he played well in Week 1 but wasn't as good on Sunday without Nico Collins, who is expected to miss this Sunday's game against the also-winless Colts (Week 3)” the article →
- Dalton SchultzTE1 · TE
35 catches for 364 yards · 0 TD · 8 games · 47th in the NFL in receiving yards
Dalton Schultz to outplay his draft cost (late-round)
“Consider Schultz a midrange TE2 for fantasy. (listed among late-round tight ends experts love to target)” the article →
Dalton Schultz to outplay his draft cost (ADP 25)
“Schultz could flirt with borderline TE1 production again this season with Jayden Higgons lost for the season to a torn ACL.” the article →
- Will Anderson Jr.Sack leader · DE
9.5 sacks · 18 solo tackles · 8 games · 1st in the NFL in sacks
Will Anderson Jr. to stay with Houston Texans
“DE Will Anderson, Texans ... Even if the Texans were considering dealing Anderson (they aren't), his no-trade clause would make that difficult.” the article →
Will Anderson Jr. to win Defensive Player of the Year
“Defensive Player of the Year — Mike Kadlick: Will Anderson Jr., edge, Texans” the article →
- Kamari LassiterTackle leader · CB
1 sack · 32 solo tackles · 8 games · 34th in the NFL in solo tackles
Kamari Lassiter to record 1 interceptions
“Kamari Lassiter Comes Alive With 1st INT of Season ... And who better than Kamari Lassiter to capitalize on that opportunity” the article →
Every call on Bills at Texans
26–34 of 34
Houston Texans to beat Bills
Bills at Texans — Conor Orr: Texans
Buffalo Bills 23 — Texans 20
Pick: Bills 23, Texans 20
Houston Texans to beat Buffalo Bills
On paper, and based on past precedent, Houston looks like they have the edge in this one-off first glance.
Houston Texans 20 — Bills 19
THE PICK: Texans 20-19 over Bills
Buffalo Bills to beat Texans
I think he's going to be a little rusty to start the season. I think Buffalo finds a way to get that game.
Houston Texans to beat Buffalo
I do think they're gonna lose week one... I do think starting o and one is even though they're a slight favorite, that's what's gonna happen.
Houston Texans to beat Bills
Then the real good game, Bill's Texans... I've got the Texans winning this game.
Buffalo Bills to beat Texans
Texans (vs. Bills). ... that will be enough to put Buffalo just barely over the top in this AFC showdown.
Houston Texans to beat Bills
The Bills game. They win for sure... Bills win. I mean, Josh Allen's got no chance here.