Mock Draft Picks
Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.
- Takes logged
- 4,387
- Graded
- 2,919
- Average accuracy
- 66.0
- Pundits
- 216
67% settled
out of 100
have made one
How these calls land
Takes in each band
Settled or waiting
2,919 / 4,387
graded
1,468 still pending
By season
- 20211 of 4 graded
- 202365 of 82 graded
- 202498 of 113 graded
- 20251221 of 1402 graded
- 20261534 of 2786 graded
Who is good at mock draft picks
- Chris Brockman76 accuracy · 36 graded+50.0
- Ryan Tracy48 accuracy · 21 graded+50.0
- John Middlekauff76 accuracy · 19 graded+50.0
- Chris Clark68 accuracy · 16 graded+50.0
- Joel Klatt92 accuracy · 13 graded+50.0
- Tom Pelissero90 accuracy · 13 graded+50.0
- Jeff Cavanaugh82 accuracy · 10 graded+50.0
- Dylan Sanders68 accuracy · 10 graded+50.0
- Dane Brugler87 accuracy · 8 graded+50.0
- Kyle Brandt69 accuracy · 8 graded+50.0
- Jason McIntyre64 accuracy · 6 graded+50.0
- Brian Bosarge18 accuracy · 6 graded+50.0
- Cody Kessler65 accuracy · 5 graded+50.0
- Darrion Gray64 accuracy · 5 graded+50.0
- Bernie Frattle65 accuracy · 4 graded+50.0
- Justin Pugh93 accuracy · 4 graded+50.0
- Lance Moore86 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz50 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Bradley Locker60 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Cynthia Frelund48 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- John Butchko85 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Logan Ryan50 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Brendan Donahue77 accuracy · 16 graded+48.6
- Brady Quinn80 accuracy · 15 graded+47.6
- Rich Eisen84 accuracy · 58 graded+47.5
- Charles Davis84 accuracy · 13 graded+46.4
- Jordan Reid87 accuracy · 14 graded+45.4
- Andy Furman97 accuracy · 7 graded+45.0
- Jason Hirschhorn53 accuracy · 5 graded+45.0
- Jacob Westendorf53 accuracy · 5 graded+45.0
- Andrew Erickson71 accuracy · 12 graded+44.1
- Chad Rader72 accuracy · 10 graded+43.3
- David Harrison64 accuracy · 120 graded+42.8
- Danny Parkins95 accuracy · 25 graded+41.8
- Ryan McCrystal61 accuracy · 36 graded+40.4
- Matt Miller81 accuracy · 44 graded+40.1
- Eric Crocker64 accuracy · 16 graded+40.0
- Chad Reuter58 accuracy · 4 graded+40.0
- Kimmi Chex69 accuracy · 4 graded+40.0
- Lance Zierlein61 accuracy · 27 graded+39.7
- Mike Renner74 accuracy · 98 graded+39.2
- Nate Tice72 accuracy · 20 graded+39.1
- Jaime Eisner44 accuracy · 119 graded+38.9
- Keith Sanchez68 accuracy · 43 graded+38.4
- Peter Schrager74 accuracy · 18 graded+37.5
- Ross Jackson63 accuracy · 142 graded+37.1
- Scott Bogman71 accuracy · 33 graded+37.1
- Brandon Carney81 accuracy · 18 graded+36.9
- Pat Gustavson82 accuracy · 16 graded+34.9
- Nick Wright82 accuracy · 95 graded+34.8
- Brian Peacock68 accuracy · 36 graded+34.5
- Colin Cowherd67 accuracy · 60 graded+34.2
- Pat Fitzmaurice74 accuracy · 42 graded+34.1
- Trevor Sikkema75 accuracy · 17 graded+33.3
- Mel Kiper81 accuracy · 65 graded+33.0
- Field Yates83 accuracy · 30 graded+33.0
- Daniel Wade60 accuracy · 13 graded+32.9
- Derek Brown78 accuracy · 21 graded+32.7
- Nick Shook91 accuracy · 37 graded+32.3
- Todd McShay90 accuracy · 24 graded+31.7
- Gregg Rosenthal79 accuracy · 108 graded+31.2
- Bucky Brooks82 accuracy · 99 graded+30.1
- Ayrton Ostly59 accuracy · 14 graded+30.0
- Kyle Crabbs68 accuracy · 322 graded+29.6
- Emory Hunt50 accuracy · 9 graded+29.2
- Daniel Jeremiah73 accuracy · 226 graded+26.7
- Jourdan Rodrigue70 accuracy · 31 graded+24.5
- JP Acosta67 accuracy · 69 graded+20.5
- Eric Edholm47 accuracy · 4 graded+20.0
- Vinnie Iyer73 accuracy · 8 graded+19.1
- Steve Mensch74 accuracy · 14 graded+16.4
- Peter Bukowski50 accuracy · 26 graded+12.5
- Jonas Knox17 accuracy · 10 graded-5.0
- Mike Mayock51 accuracy · 22 graded-5.2
- Isaiah Stanback66 accuracy · 4 graded-10.0
- Fran Duffy51 accuracy · 8 graded-50.0
limitedRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.
Why so many dead-wrong answers?
Mock drafts are the single biggest source of zero scores on this site — and it is not because analysts are bad at them. It is because a mock draft asks the same person to do two very different jobs, and only one of them is possible.
Accuracy collapses after round one
- Round 1 · picks 1–321676 picks · off by 10 on average76.3 avg
- Round 2 · 33–64112 picks · off by 25 on average49.5 avg
- Round 3 · 65–10094 picks · off by 33 on average38.7 avg
- Day 3 · 101–175158 picks · off by 41 on average32.7 avg
- Late Day 3 · 176+93 picks · off by 50 on average26.9 avg
A first-round mock is a genuinely good prediction. Across 1676 first-round picks the average score is 76.3, missing by about 10 places. By late day 3 that has fallen to 26.9, missing by 50.
The order of the late rounds is close to unknowable. Thirty-two teams making a hundred and fifty picks are working from private boards, trades nobody has made yet, and medical information that never becomes public. 38% of every zero-scored pick we hold was mocked after round two.
Which is a hard thing to score fairly, and looking at this chart is what made us change how we do it. Until 2 August 2026 credit ran out at one full round, so a pick 32 places out and one 128 places out both scored zero — and 29% of every pick we held sat on that floor. Credit now halves every sixteen picks instead: the standard for a good pick is untouched, and being wrong by a round is no longer the same answer as being wrong by four. The methodology records the change and the numbers behind it.
An analyst who mocks all seven rounds is still attempting the hardest version of the exercise, and the back half will always score lower than the front. That is why the leaderboard ranks on MissedTakes Score, which comes from how well a mock ordered the draft rather than from its individual picks — a seven-round mock is judged on the shape it got right, not on the length of its tail.
The players who fooled everyone
- Jermod McCoyCB24 mocksmocked around 15 · went at 101
- Shedeur SandersQB18 mocksmocked around 8 · went at 144
- Emmanuel McNeil-WarrenS11 mocksmocked around 21 · went at 58
- Emmanuel PregnonG7 mocksmocked around 35 · went at 88
- Will JohnsonCB7 mocksmocked around 10 · went at 47
These are predictions about where a team would pick, not judgements of the player. A slide says as much about thirty-two front offices as it does about anyone’s evaluation.
By publisher
- Locked On Chiefs (podcast)67.8 · 53 graded
- Locked On Bills (podcast)55.8 · 36 graded
- Fox Sports Radio (podcast)94.9 · 42 graded
- Locked On Lions (podcast)81.1 · 26 graded
- The Dan Patrick Show (podcast)91.8 · 14 graded
- Sharp Football Analysis68.9 · 52 graded
- The Rich Eisen Podcast (podcast)97.3 · 12 graded
- Locked On Commanders (podcast)60.4 · 126 graded
- The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)74.9 · 232 graded
- The Draft Network42.6 · 162 graded
- The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)79.5 · 233 graded
- Locked On Saints (podcast)63.5 · 182 graded
- John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast)63.4 · 13 graded
- Locked On Chargers (podcast)70.4 · 26 graded
- KC Sports Network (podcast)67.5 · 95 graded
- Bran Coverage with BenchwarmerBran (podcast)84.6 · 34 graded
- Locked On 49ers (podcast)70.1 · 72 graded
- First Things First (podcast)79.7 · 119 graded
- Around the NFL (podcast)78.7 · 232 graded
- NFL Live (podcast)92.7 · 22 graded
- Move the Sticks (podcast)72.4 · 350 graded
- Pushing the Pile (podcast)69.6 · 212 graded
- Locked On Rams (podcast)50.0 · 14 graded
- The 33rd Team63.7 · 349 graded
- Locked On Packers (podcast)52.4 · 39 graded
- 2 Pros and a Cup of Joe (podcast)68.6 · 26 graded
- DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast)71.6 · 72 graded
- Overreaction Monday (podcast)62.5 · 38 graded
- The Colin Cowherd Podcast (podcast)77.8 · 13 graded
- Walter Football99.6 · 6 graded
- Locked On Cardinals (podcast)88.4 · 6 graded
- Sports Illustrated50.0 · 4 graded
- Nightcap (podcast)66.7 · 3 graded
- Fox Sports0.0 · 1 graded
- Pro Football Focus100.0 · 1 graded
- 4for4100.0 · 1 graded
- CBS Sports36.9 · 1 graded
Every mock draft picks take
4276–4300 of 4,387
Quinn Ewers to be picked “He's not gonna be a first round quarterback right now” (picks 1–32)
He's not gonna be a first round quarterback right now. Okay? He still has some eligibility left.
Abdul Carter to be picked “top-10 overall” (picks 1–10)
He is still within my top 10 overall prospects eligible for the 2025 class despite not ranking at No. 1 on this list.
James Pearce Jr. to be picked “early”
that's not why a team is drafting Pearce Jr. early
Shemar Stewart to be picked “early in the draft”
it isn't hard to see why a freak athlete like Stewart gets his name called early in the draft
J.J. McCarthy to be picked “surefire early first-round pick; fourth quarterback off the board” (picks 1–135)
the fourth quarterback off the board ... we have the top four in Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and McCarthy, who are all surefire early first-round picks
Bo Nix to be picked “early second round” (picks 33–64)
Both are getting talked about as possible first-round picks, but they could see a Levis-like fall into the early second round.
Jer'Zhan Newton to be picked at number 15
Our big board has Newton 15th overall and first at the position.
Jayden Daniels to be picked “surefire early first-round pick” (picks 1–32)
we have the top four in Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and McCarthy, who are all surefire early first-round picks
Caleb Williams to be picked “surefire early first-round pick” (picks 1–32)
we have the top four in Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and McCarthy, who are all surefire early first-round picks
Drake Maye to be picked “surefire early first-round pick” (picks 1–32)
we have the top four in Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and McCarthy, who are all surefire early first-round picks
Michael Penix Jr. to be picked “early second round” (picks 33–64)
Both are getting talked about as possible first-round picks, but they could see a Levis-like fall into the early second round.
- Close · 42Sports Info SolutionsMock Draft Picks2024 season
Jonathon Brooks to be picked at number 66
3. Jonathan Brooks, Texas Big Board Rank : 66
a naive guess scored 50+18.96 skillsaid Mar 19, 2024 - Miss · 0Sports Info SolutionsMock Draft Picks2024 season
Cody Schrader to be picked at number 131
14. Cody Schrader, Missouri Big Board Rank : 131
a naive guess scored 50+18.96 skillsaid Mar 19, 2024 - Close · 50Sports Info SolutionsMock Draft Picks2024 season
Bucky Irving to be picked at number 109
6. Bucky Irving, Oregon Big Board Rank : 109
a naive guess scored 50+18.96 skillsaid Mar 19, 2024 - Hit · 96Sports Info SolutionsMock Draft Picks2024 season
Ray Davis to be picked at number 129
12. Ray Davis, Kentucky Big Board Rank : 129
a naive guess scored 50+18.96 skillsaid Mar 19, 2024 - Miss · 7Sports Info SolutionsMock Draft Picks2024 season
Will Shipley to be picked at number 67
4. Will Shipley, Clemson Big Board Rank : 67
a naive guess scored 50+18.96 skillsaid Mar 19, 2024 - Miss · 11Sports Info SolutionsMock Draft Picks2024 season
Jase McClellan to be picked at number 134
15. Jase McClellan, Alabama Big Board Rank : 134
a naive guess scored 50+18.96 skillsaid Mar 19, 2024 - Miss · 3Sports Info SolutionsMock Draft Picks2024 season
Audric Estimé to be picked at number 65
2. Audric Estime, Notre Dame Big Board Rank : 65
a naive guess scored 50+18.96 skillsaid Mar 19, 2024 - Miss · 2Sports Info SolutionsMock Draft Picks2024 season
Dylan Laube to be picked at number 112
7. Dylan Laube, New Hampshire Big Board Rank : 112
a naive guess scored 50+18.96 skillsaid Mar 19, 2024 - Miss · 3Sports Info SolutionsMock Draft Picks2024 season
Jawhar Jordan to be picked at number 125
10. Jawhar Jordan, Louisville Big Board Rank : 125
a naive guess scored 50+18.96 skillsaid Mar 19, 2024 - Close · 57Sports Info SolutionsMock Draft Picks2024 season
Braelon Allen to be picked at number 121
9. Braelon Allen, Wisconsin Big Board Rank : 121
a naive guess scored 50+18.96 skillsaid Mar 19, 2024 - Close · 77Sports Info SolutionsMock Draft Picks2024 season
Trey Benson to be picked at number 60
1. Trey Benson, Florida State Big Board Rank : 60
a naive guess scored 50+18.96 skillsaid Mar 19, 2024 - Miss · 18Sports Info SolutionsMock Draft Picks2024 season
MarShawn Lloyd to be picked at number 128
11. MarShawn Lloyd, USC Big Board Rank : 128
a naive guess scored 50+18.96 skillsaid Mar 19, 2024 - Close · 65Sports Info SolutionsMock Draft Picks2024 season
Blake Corum to be picked at number 73
5. Blake Corum, Michigan Big Board Rank : 73
a naive guess scored 50+18.96 skillsaid Mar 19, 2024 - Miss · 0Sports Info SolutionsMock Draft Picks2024 season
Dillon Johnson to be picked at number 119
8. Dillon Johnson, Washington Big Board Rank : 119
a naive guess scored 50+18.96 skillsaid Mar 19, 2024
By topic
NFL — mock draft picks (3000 graded)
Topics we cover today: NFL, US Elections. Every kind of prediction belongs to one of them; this page sits above the topic so that adding another does not mean rewriting every link.