Mock Draft Picks
Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.
- Takes logged
- 4,387
- Graded
- 2,919
- Average accuracy
- 66.0
- Pundits
- 216
67% settled
out of 100
have made one
How these calls land
Takes in each band
Settled or waiting
2,919 / 4,387
graded
1,468 still pending
By season
- 20211 of 4 graded
- 202365 of 82 graded
- 202498 of 113 graded
- 20251221 of 1402 graded
- 20261534 of 2786 graded
Who is good at mock draft picks
- Chris Brockman76 accuracy · 36 graded+50.0
- Ryan Tracy48 accuracy · 21 graded+50.0
- John Middlekauff76 accuracy · 19 graded+50.0
- Chris Clark68 accuracy · 16 graded+50.0
- Joel Klatt92 accuracy · 13 graded+50.0
- Tom Pelissero90 accuracy · 13 graded+50.0
- Jeff Cavanaugh82 accuracy · 10 graded+50.0
- Dylan Sanders68 accuracy · 10 graded+50.0
- Dane Brugler87 accuracy · 8 graded+50.0
- Kyle Brandt69 accuracy · 8 graded+50.0
- Jason McIntyre64 accuracy · 6 graded+50.0
- Brian Bosarge18 accuracy · 6 graded+50.0
- Cody Kessler65 accuracy · 5 graded+50.0
- Darrion Gray64 accuracy · 5 graded+50.0
- Bernie Frattle65 accuracy · 4 graded+50.0
- Justin Pugh93 accuracy · 4 graded+50.0
- Lance Moore86 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz50 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Bradley Locker60 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Cynthia Frelund48 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- John Butchko85 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Logan Ryan50 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Brendan Donahue77 accuracy · 16 graded+48.6
- Brady Quinn80 accuracy · 15 graded+47.6
- Rich Eisen84 accuracy · 58 graded+47.5
- Charles Davis84 accuracy · 13 graded+46.4
- Jordan Reid87 accuracy · 14 graded+45.4
- Andy Furman97 accuracy · 7 graded+45.0
- Jason Hirschhorn53 accuracy · 5 graded+45.0
- Jacob Westendorf53 accuracy · 5 graded+45.0
- Andrew Erickson71 accuracy · 12 graded+44.1
- Chad Rader72 accuracy · 10 graded+43.3
- David Harrison64 accuracy · 120 graded+42.8
- Danny Parkins95 accuracy · 25 graded+41.8
- Ryan McCrystal61 accuracy · 36 graded+40.4
- Matt Miller81 accuracy · 44 graded+40.1
- Eric Crocker64 accuracy · 16 graded+40.0
- Chad Reuter58 accuracy · 4 graded+40.0
- Kimmi Chex69 accuracy · 4 graded+40.0
- Lance Zierlein61 accuracy · 27 graded+39.7
- Mike Renner74 accuracy · 98 graded+39.2
- Nate Tice72 accuracy · 20 graded+39.1
- Jaime Eisner44 accuracy · 119 graded+38.9
- Keith Sanchez68 accuracy · 43 graded+38.4
- Peter Schrager74 accuracy · 18 graded+37.5
- Ross Jackson63 accuracy · 142 graded+37.1
- Scott Bogman71 accuracy · 33 graded+37.1
- Brandon Carney81 accuracy · 18 graded+36.9
- Pat Gustavson82 accuracy · 16 graded+34.9
- Nick Wright82 accuracy · 95 graded+34.8
- Brian Peacock68 accuracy · 36 graded+34.5
- Colin Cowherd67 accuracy · 60 graded+34.2
- Pat Fitzmaurice74 accuracy · 42 graded+34.1
- Trevor Sikkema75 accuracy · 17 graded+33.3
- Mel Kiper81 accuracy · 65 graded+33.0
- Field Yates83 accuracy · 30 graded+33.0
- Daniel Wade60 accuracy · 13 graded+32.9
- Derek Brown78 accuracy · 21 graded+32.7
- Nick Shook91 accuracy · 37 graded+32.3
- Todd McShay90 accuracy · 24 graded+31.7
- Gregg Rosenthal79 accuracy · 108 graded+31.2
- Bucky Brooks82 accuracy · 99 graded+30.1
- Ayrton Ostly59 accuracy · 14 graded+30.0
- Kyle Crabbs68 accuracy · 322 graded+29.6
- Emory Hunt50 accuracy · 9 graded+29.2
- Daniel Jeremiah73 accuracy · 226 graded+26.7
- Jourdan Rodrigue70 accuracy · 31 graded+24.5
- JP Acosta67 accuracy · 69 graded+20.5
- Eric Edholm47 accuracy · 4 graded+20.0
- Vinnie Iyer73 accuracy · 8 graded+19.1
- Steve Mensch74 accuracy · 14 graded+16.4
- Peter Bukowski50 accuracy · 26 graded+12.5
- Jonas Knox17 accuracy · 10 graded-5.0
- Mike Mayock51 accuracy · 22 graded-5.2
- Isaiah Stanback66 accuracy · 4 graded-10.0
- Fran Duffy51 accuracy · 8 graded-50.0
limitedRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.
Why so many dead-wrong answers?
Mock drafts are the single biggest source of zero scores on this site — and it is not because analysts are bad at them. It is because a mock draft asks the same person to do two very different jobs, and only one of them is possible.
Accuracy collapses after round one
- Round 1 · picks 1–321676 picks · off by 10 on average76.3 avg
- Round 2 · 33–64112 picks · off by 25 on average49.5 avg
- Round 3 · 65–10094 picks · off by 33 on average38.7 avg
- Day 3 · 101–175158 picks · off by 41 on average32.7 avg
- Late Day 3 · 176+93 picks · off by 50 on average26.9 avg
A first-round mock is a genuinely good prediction. Across 1676 first-round picks the average score is 76.3, missing by about 10 places. By late day 3 that has fallen to 26.9, missing by 50.
The order of the late rounds is close to unknowable. Thirty-two teams making a hundred and fifty picks are working from private boards, trades nobody has made yet, and medical information that never becomes public. 38% of every zero-scored pick we hold was mocked after round two.
Which is a hard thing to score fairly, and looking at this chart is what made us change how we do it. Until 2 August 2026 credit ran out at one full round, so a pick 32 places out and one 128 places out both scored zero — and 29% of every pick we held sat on that floor. Credit now halves every sixteen picks instead: the standard for a good pick is untouched, and being wrong by a round is no longer the same answer as being wrong by four. The methodology records the change and the numbers behind it.
An analyst who mocks all seven rounds is still attempting the hardest version of the exercise, and the back half will always score lower than the front. That is why the leaderboard ranks on MissedTakes Score, which comes from how well a mock ordered the draft rather than from its individual picks — a seven-round mock is judged on the shape it got right, not on the length of its tail.
The players who fooled everyone
- Jermod McCoyCB24 mocksmocked around 15 · went at 101
- Shedeur SandersQB18 mocksmocked around 8 · went at 144
- Emmanuel McNeil-WarrenS11 mocksmocked around 21 · went at 58
- Emmanuel PregnonG7 mocksmocked around 35 · went at 88
- Will JohnsonCB7 mocksmocked around 10 · went at 47
These are predictions about where a team would pick, not judgements of the player. A slide says as much about thirty-two front offices as it does about anyone’s evaluation.
By publisher
- Locked On Chiefs (podcast)67.8 · 53 graded
- Locked On Bills (podcast)55.8 · 36 graded
- Fox Sports Radio (podcast)94.9 · 42 graded
- Locked On Lions (podcast)81.1 · 26 graded
- The Dan Patrick Show (podcast)91.8 · 14 graded
- Sharp Football Analysis68.9 · 52 graded
- The Rich Eisen Podcast (podcast)97.3 · 12 graded
- Locked On Commanders (podcast)60.4 · 126 graded
- The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)74.9 · 232 graded
- The Draft Network42.6 · 162 graded
- The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)79.5 · 233 graded
- Locked On Saints (podcast)63.5 · 182 graded
- John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast)63.4 · 13 graded
- Locked On Chargers (podcast)70.4 · 26 graded
- KC Sports Network (podcast)67.5 · 95 graded
- Bran Coverage with BenchwarmerBran (podcast)84.6 · 34 graded
- Locked On 49ers (podcast)70.1 · 72 graded
- First Things First (podcast)79.7 · 119 graded
- Around the NFL (podcast)78.7 · 232 graded
- NFL Live (podcast)92.7 · 22 graded
- Move the Sticks (podcast)72.4 · 350 graded
- Pushing the Pile (podcast)69.6 · 212 graded
- Locked On Rams (podcast)50.0 · 14 graded
- The 33rd Team63.7 · 349 graded
- Locked On Packers (podcast)52.4 · 39 graded
- 2 Pros and a Cup of Joe (podcast)68.6 · 26 graded
- DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast)71.6 · 72 graded
- Overreaction Monday (podcast)62.5 · 38 graded
- The Colin Cowherd Podcast (podcast)77.8 · 13 graded
- Walter Football99.6 · 6 graded
- Locked On Cardinals (podcast)88.4 · 6 graded
- Sports Illustrated50.0 · 4 graded
- Nightcap (podcast)66.7 · 3 graded
- Fox Sports0.0 · 1 graded
- Pro Football Focus100.0 · 1 graded
- 4for4100.0 · 1 graded
- CBS Sports36.9 · 1 graded
Every mock draft picks take
4251–4275 of 4,387
Travis Hunter to be picked at number 3
The Giants... Now you get Travis Hunter to provide some excitement wherever you want to play him offense, defense.
Mason Graham to be picked at number 5
And then Jacksonville kicked around a lot of different ideas for them. I just ended up settling on Mason Gramm.
Shedeur Sanders to be picked at number 6
And this is where we get to the Raiders... I put Shudoor Sanders there, Chip Kelly coming in there... But that's why I have a six
Grey Zabel to be picked at number 18
Uh, Seattle dressed the interior of the offensive line. I wish Gray is able could clone himself... there there he goes at eighteen
Darius Alexander to be picked at number 26
this is the one you tease this a little earlier about the Rams. Darius Alexander, big, long rangey athletic.
Donovan Jackson to be picked at number 28
Detroit Donovan Jackson who can slide right in and replace Zeidler who's a free agent.
Matthew Golden to be picked at number 30
Matthew Golden, one of my favorites in the draft or sever out of Texas. He goes to Buffalo.
Tyler Booker to be picked at number 13
thirteen. Miami's got to get better along the offensive line, especially in the interior. Tyler Booker, I love him as a player.
Jahdae Barron to be picked at number 17
We get keep it going here at seventeen one of my favorite players in the draft and Jaday... Baron from Texas... Their next pick for Cincinnati is forty nine.
Ashton Jeanty to be picked at number 21
The Pittsburgh Steelers taking Ashton Genty running back from Boise and State.
Omarion Hampton to be picked at number 22
a maryin Hampton going next to the Chargers and again thinking playmakers not positions
Jalen McMillan to be picked at number 19
And then I've got McMillan, Ted McMillan from Arizona, the big wide receiver... And with Tampa with Chris Godwin, a free agent
Shedeur Sanders to be picked “drops”
I think Shador Sanders drops.
Kyle McCord to be picked “second to third round” (picks 33–102)
I do believe that a Riley Leonard Kyle McCord in the second to third round could actually end up falling to good teams and actually being decent franchise quarterbacks.
Riley Leonard to be picked “second to third round” (picks 33–102)
I do believe that a Riley Leonard Kyle McCord in the second to third round could actually end up falling to good teams and actually being decent franchise quarterbacks.
Shedeur Sanders to be picked “first round picks” (picks 1–32)
Cam Ward and Shadoor Sanders are both probably gonna be first round picks based on everyone that I've spoken to here.
Cam Ward to be picked “first round picks” (picks 1–32)
Cam Ward and Shadoor Sanders are both probably gonna be first round picks based on everyone that I've spoken to here.
Cam Ward to be picked “a top five pick” (picks 1–5)
And a lot of people think he'll be a top five pick.
Quinn Ewers to be picked “a second or third round pick” (picks 33–102)
I wouldn't be surprised if some somebody got word to them that, like, hey. You can be a second or third round pick.
Shedeur Sanders to be picked “gone within the top five picks” (picks 1–5)
and if it, you know, with everything being said, he should be gone within the top five picks
Abdul Carter to be picked at number 1
But I will say about Penn State Abduall Carter that rush end. If he's healthy, John, if he got drafted number one. I don't think it's crazy. I think he's so good.
Bryce Young to be picked “future top ten pick in a couple of years” (picks 1–10)
His son Bryce, who I would bet on number thirty, the six foot seven pass rusher who's a backup right now, who's a true freshman being a future top ten pick in a couple of years.
Kyle McCord to be picked “third round quarterback” (picks 65–102)
but Riley Leonard McCord out of Syracuse I think will end up being I think he'll end up being like a third round quarterback that sticks in the league for a long time. Kyle McCord is
Travis Hunter to be picked “two or three”
And I think the the Patriots are gonna choose two or three, and you're still gonna get Travis Hunter anyway, and you'll be a very happy camper.
Will Johnson to be picked “top 10 pick” (picks 1–10)
And we didn't have Will Johnson who may be a top 10 pick. He's gonna be a top 10 pick in in the NFL.
By topic
NFL — mock draft picks (3000 graded)
Topics we cover today: NFL, US Elections. Every kind of prediction belongs to one of them; this page sits above the topic so that adding another does not mean rewriting every link.