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Mock Draft Picks

Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.

Takes logged
4,385
Graded
2,919

67% settled

Average accuracy
66.0

out of 100

Pundits
215

have made one

How these calls land

Every graded call of this kind, bucketed by score.

Takes in each band

020406080
0 — dead wrongscore out of 100100 — nailed it
1460 scored 80+711 scored under 40

Settled or waiting

2,919 / 4,385

graded

1,466 still pending

By season

  • 20211 of 4 graded
  • 202365 of 82 graded
  • 202498 of 113 graded
  • 20251221 of 1402 graded
  • 20261534 of 2784 graded

Who is good at mock draft picks

MissedTakes score for this kind of prediction only — accuracy measured against what a naive guess would have scored. Zero means no better than guessing.

limitedRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.

Why so many dead-wrong answers?

Mock drafts are the single biggest source of zero scores on this site — and it is not because analysts are bad at them. It is because a mock draft asks the same person to do two very different jobs, and only one of them is possible.

Accuracy collapses after round one

Average score out of 100, grouped by the round a player was mocked in. The bar is the score; the note is how far the average pick actually missed by.
  • Round 1 · picks 1–321676 picks · off by 10 on average76.3 avg
  • Round 2 · 33–64112 picks · off by 25 on average49.5 avg
  • Round 3 · 65–10094 picks · off by 33 on average38.7 avg
  • Day 3 · 101–175158 picks · off by 41 on average32.7 avg
  • Late Day 3 · 176+93 picks · off by 50 on average26.9 avg

A first-round mock is a genuinely good prediction. Across 1676 first-round picks the average score is 76.3, missing by about 10 places. By late day 3 that has fallen to 26.9, missing by 50.

The order of the late rounds is close to unknowable. Thirty-two teams making a hundred and fifty picks are working from private boards, trades nobody has made yet, and medical information that never becomes public. 38% of every zero-scored pick we hold was mocked after round two.

Which is a hard thing to score fairly, and looking at this chart is what made us change how we do it. Until 2 August 2026 credit ran out at one full round, so a pick 32 places out and one 128 places out both scored zero — and 29% of every pick we held sat on that floor. Credit now halves every sixteen picks instead: the standard for a good pick is untouched, and being wrong by a round is no longer the same answer as being wrong by four. The methodology records the change and the numbers behind it.

An analyst who mocks all seven rounds is still attempting the hardest version of the exercise, and the back half will always score lower than the front. That is why the leaderboard ranks on MissedTakes Score, which comes from how well a mock ordered the draft rather than from its individual picks — a seven-round mock is judged on the shape it got right, not on the length of its tail.

The players who fooled everyone

Where two or more analysts were more than a round out on the same player. One person being wrong is a take; several being wrong the same way is a story.

These are predictions about where a team would pick, not judgements of the player. A slide says as much about thirty-two front offices as it does about anyone’s evaluation.

By publisher

The same record pooled across everyone writing under one banner.

Every mock draft picks take

3626–3650 of 4,385

  • Hit · 88Mike MayockMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Emeka Egbuka to be picked at number 22

    And I finally went, you know what? I'm I'm Mecca Abuka, the wide out from Ohio State to pair him with Ladd McConkie.

    Emeka EgbukaLos Angeles Chargers

    a naive guess scored 50-5.22 skillsaid Apr 21, 2025the article →
  • Close · 50Mike MayockMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Donovan Ezeiruaku to be picked at number 28

    Twenty eighth overall Lions... So I gave him Dominic Esaraku from Boston College.

    Donovan EzeiruakuDetroit Lions

    a naive guess scored 50-5.22 skillsaid Apr 21, 2025the article →
  • Miss · 0Mike MayockMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Shedeur Sanders to be picked at number 21

    I do like Shador Sanders to Pittsburgh... And I'm hoping at 21, there'll be a little less pressure.

    Shedeur SandersPittsburgh Steelers

    a naive guess scored 50-5.22 skillsaid Apr 21, 2025the article →
  • Close · 46Mike MayockMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Mykel Williams to be picked at number 29

    Let's start with Washington... They take Mikael Williams, six five, two sixty five, long arms

    Mykel WilliamsWashington Commanders

    a naive guess scored 50-5.22 skillsaid Apr 21, 2025the article →
  • Hit · 100Mike MayockMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Maxwell Hairston to be picked at number 30

    The Bills thirtieth overall do what?... We're gonna get the fourth corner, Maxwell Hairston from, Kentucky.

    Maxwell HairstonBuffalo Bills

    a naive guess scored 50-5.22 skillsaid Apr 21, 2025the article →
  • Close · 55Mike MayockMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Shemar Stewart to be picked at number 31

    what do the Chiefs do here?... I've got him taking Shamar Stewart, the defensive band from A and M

    Shemar StewartKansas City Chiefs

    a naive guess scored 50-5.22 skillsaid Apr 21, 2025the article →
  • Hit · 96Mike MayockMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Jaxson Dart to be picked at number 24

    So I've got the New York Giants trading up from 34 to 24 and taking jack Jackson Dart.

    Jaxson DartNew York Giants

    a naive guess scored 50-5.22 skillsaid Apr 21, 2025the article →
  • Hit · 100Mike MayockMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Malaki Starks to be picked at number 27

    The Ravens, with six more picks to go, twenty seventh overall... So they stick and pick a safety. Malachi Starks.

    Malaki StarksBaltimore Ravens

    a naive guess scored 50-5.22 skillsaid Apr 21, 2025the article →
  • Hit · 92Mike MayockMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Derrick Harmon to be picked at number 23

    So they they get Derek Harmon from Oregon, who's an immediate plug and play starter, a defensive tackle... I think he starts day one for for Green Bay.

    Derrick HarmonGreen Bay Packers

    a naive guess scored 50-5.22 skillsaid Apr 21, 2025the article →
  • Hit · 92Mike MayockMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Donovan Jackson to be picked at number 26

    And now the Rams do what? Twenty sixth overall... So I went with Donovan Jackson, another Buckeye.

    Donovan JacksonLos Angeles Rams

    a naive guess scored 50-5.22 skillsaid Apr 21, 2025the article →
  • Close · 74Mike MayockMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Josh Simmons to be picked at number 25

    I have them taken Josh Simmons from Ohio State... from an athletic perspective, he's a higher pick than 25.

    Josh SimmonsHouston Texans

    a naive guess scored 50-5.22 skillsaid Apr 21, 2025the article →
  • Close · 50Mike MayockMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Walter Nolen to be picked at number 32

    And Howie Roseman's now on the clock thirty second overall... So I'm giving him Walter Nolan, who is most one of the most gifted players in this draft.

    Walter NolenPhiladelphia Eagles

    a naive guess scored 50-5.22 skillsaid Apr 21, 2025the article →
  • Close · 59Mike MayockMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Tetairoa McMillan to be picked at number 20

    Tete McMillan, twentieth.

    Tetairoa McMillan

    a naive guess scored 50-5.22 skillsaid Apr 21, 2025the article →
  • Hit · 96Chris BrockmanMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Ashton Jeanty to be picked “top five” (picks 1–5)

    I think Ashton Gentry is going in the top five.

    Ashton Jeanty

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 21, 2025the article →
  • Hit · 96Rich EisenMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Ashton Jeanty to be picked “top five” (picks 1–5)

    I think Ashton Gentry is going in the top five. / I think he could too... This is not an overreaction.

    Ashton Jeanty

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 21, 2025the article →
  • Miss · 1Chris BrockmanMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Shedeur Sanders to be picked “late first round” (picks 1–32)

    He gets drafted late first round. By a team that's good, I think.

    Shedeur Sanders

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 21, 2025the article →
  • Hit · 100Rich EisenMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Cam Ward to be picked at number 1

    Cam Ward's gonna go first overall... The Titans, Rich, as you know, number one on the clock breaking news, they're gonna take Cameron Ward That's correct. Seemingly. Right? 99.9%. I think it's gonna happen.

    Cam WardTennessee Titans

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 21, 2025the article →
  • PendingRich EisenMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Shedeur Sanders to be picked “drafted by a team in the twenties”

    I don't think that's an overreaction, and that would mean that he he he gets drafted by a team in the in in the twenties.

    Shedeur Sanders

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Apr 21, 2025the article →
  • PendingRich EisenMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Jalen Milroe to be picked “late twenties”

    Miller going to the draft, I think, is an indication to me that he is going in that late twenties.

    Jalen Milroe

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Apr 21, 2025the article →
  • Hit · 100Kyle CrabbsMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Ashton Jeanty to be picked at number 10

    He feels like a top-10 shoo-in on the doorstep of the draft.

    Ashton Jeanty

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 21, 2025the article →
  • PendingTom PelisseroMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Tyleik Williams to be picked “late in round one”

    there's a bunch of really good defensive linemen in this draft. You can see those names come off late in round one. Tyler Williams is one. Maybe he can sneak up on some people

    Tyleik Williams

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Apr 21, 2025the article →
  • Hit · 100Tom PelisseroMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Cam Ward to be picked at number 1

    For a couple of months now, it's been pretty clear that the Titans pick is going to be cam Ward, the quarterback from Miami... it would be a absolute shock if it's not cam Ward going to Tennessee

    Cam WardTennessee Titans

    a naive guess scored 50+50 skillsaid Apr 21, 2025the article →
  • PendingTom PelisseroMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Jared Wilson to be picked “round one”

    Georgia center Jared Wilson is number three... centers tend to go. One of them usually sneaks up into round one. Keep an eye on Jared Wilson on Thursday Night.

    Jared Wilson

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Apr 21, 2025the article →
  • PendingTom PelisseroMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Tyler Shough to be picked “a Day two pick”

    Realistically, Tyler Shuck. Probably more than likely it's going to be a Day two pick.

    Tyler Shough

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Apr 21, 2025the article →
  • PendingTom PelisseroMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Emeka Egbuka to be picked “somewhere between twenty and twenty five in round one”

    I would not be shocked if ABUCA comes off maybe somewhere between twenty and twenty five in round one.

    Emeka Egbuka

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Apr 21, 2025the article →

By topic

NFL — mock draft picks (3000 graded)

Topics we cover today: NFL, US Elections. Every kind of prediction belongs to one of them; this page sits above the topic so that adding another does not mean rewriting every link.