Seat Counts
Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.
- Takes logged
- 52
- Graded
- 14
- Average accuracy
- 80.0
- Pundits
- 21
27% settled
out of 100
have made one
How these calls land
Takes in each band
Settled or waiting
14 / 52
graded
38 still pending
By season
- 202414 of 21 graded
- 20260 of 31 graded
Who is good at seat counts
- Mark Halperin100 accuracy · 1 graded+81.6
- Isaac Saul100 accuracy · 1 graded+80.0
- Nathan Gonzales100 accuracy · 1 graded+80.0
- Steve Deace80 accuracy · 2 graded+60.3
- Lakshya Jain80 accuracy · 4 graded+25.0
- Daniel Horowitz78 accuracy · 2 graded+22.9
- Erick-Woods Erickson75 accuracy · 1 graded-15.0
- Sam Wang55 accuracy · 2 graded-35.0
provisionalRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.
By publisher
- The Megyn Kelly Show100.0 · 1 graded
- The Inside Elections Podcast100.0 · 1 graded
- Tangle (podcast)100.0 · 1 graded
- Steve Deace Show75.8 · 4 graded
- Split Ticket80.0 · 4 graded
- Erick Erickson newsletter (Substack)75.0 · 1 graded
- Princeton Election Consortium (Sam Wang)55.0 · 2 graded
Every seat counts take
51–52 of 52
Well well, I mean, I think Republicans will be anywhere from 52 to 56 seats at this point.
I do think they get 51, and that's before you talk about Ohio Ohio with Marino or Pennsylvania with McCormick.
By topic
US Elections — seat counts (14 graded)
Topics we cover today: NFL, US Elections. Every kind of prediction belongs to one of them; this page sits above the topic so that adding another does not mean rewriting every link.