Seat Counts
Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.
- Takes logged
- 52
- Graded
- 14
- Average accuracy
- 80.0
- Pundits
- 21
27% settled
out of 100
have made one
How these calls land
Takes in each band
Settled or waiting
14 / 52
graded
38 still pending
By season
- 202414 of 21 graded
- 20260 of 31 graded
Who is good at seat counts
- Mark Halperin100 accuracy · 1 graded+81.6
- Isaac Saul100 accuracy · 1 graded+80.0
- Nathan Gonzales100 accuracy · 1 graded+80.0
- Steve Deace80 accuracy · 2 graded+60.3
- Lakshya Jain80 accuracy · 4 graded+25.0
- Daniel Horowitz78 accuracy · 2 graded+22.9
- Erick-Woods Erickson75 accuracy · 1 graded-15.0
- Sam Wang55 accuracy · 2 graded-35.0
provisionalRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.
By publisher
- The Megyn Kelly Show100.0 · 1 graded
- The Inside Elections Podcast100.0 · 1 graded
- Tangle (podcast)100.0 · 1 graded
- Steve Deace Show75.8 · 4 graded
- Split Ticket80.0 · 4 graded
- Erick Erickson newsletter (Substack)75.0 · 1 graded
- Princeton Election Consortium (Sam Wang)55.0 · 2 graded
Every seat counts take
26–50 of 52
- PendingKyle KondikSeat Counts2026 season
HOUSE : 210 at least Leans D, 203 at least Leans R, 22 Toss-ups.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 16, 2026 - PendingChuck ToddSeat Counts2026 season
this is why the Times is projecting right now an electorate that favors Democrats somewhere in the eight-point range. And what does that mean? It means 15 to 25 House seats, and it means four to six Senate seats.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 16, 2026 - PendingChuck ToddSeat Counts2026 season
It means 15 to 25 House seats, and it means four to six Senate seats.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 16, 2026 - PendingChuck ToddSeat Counts2026 season
And this is why The Times is projecting right now an electorate that favors Democrats somewhere in the eight-point range. And what does that mean? It means 15 to 25 House seats, and it means four to six Senate seats.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 16, 2026 - PendingChuck ToddSeat Counts2026 season
It means 15 to 25 House seats, and it means four to six Senate seats... and that's how Democrats get to picking up five or six Senate seats because they hold all that.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 16, 2026 - PendingKyle KondikSeat Counts2026 season
Add it all up and you get the following: R+2-6 from redistricting, with the range being determined by the 4 Toss-ups that Democrats are defending (Castor, Davis, Kaptur, and Moskowitz).
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 15, 2026 House seat prediction: 224 D (range: 216-232), 211 R (range: 203-222)
House seat prediction: 224 D (range: 216-232), 211 R (range: 203-222)
I think Republicans will have 54, 55 senators
At a minimum, the Republicans should pick up two seats, for majority control of the Senate.
I expect the GOP could see its margin go up to 225 or 230.
I mean, I think the senate ranges from, like, 51 Republicans to 57, and we don't know where in that mix it's gonna land.
Democrats end up with a razor-thin 219–216 majority
Democrats end up with a razor-thin 219–216 majority
with a 52 Republican, 48 Democratic Senate if we eliminate toss ups
with a 52 Republican, 48 Democratic Senate if we eliminate toss ups
And I think the Republicans end up with 54 US senators.
I got to two nineteen two sixteen Republicans.
and that Republicans would come away with 53 seats in the Senate
we see the most likely outcome is anywhere from a Democratic net gain of nine seats to a Republican net gain of a single seat
Our likely projection is any... Is a net gain of two to four seats for Republicans.
So I have Republicans finishing, with 54 US senators
Our overall range right now is anything from a Democratic gain of nine seats to a Republican gain of six seats.
My prediction is I think 52 is the lowest number of Republicans in the Senate after this election. I think the floor is now 52.
She's gonna have a fifty one forty nine Republican Senate at best.
By topic
US Elections — seat counts (14 graded)
Topics we cover today: NFL, US Elections. Every kind of prediction belongs to one of them; this page sits above the topic so that adding another does not mean rewriting every link.