Race Margins

I think New Jersey is going to be close six seven points.

Donald Trump carried the state by just 3.5 points in 2020. This year, our model projects that Republicans will expand their margin in Florida relative to 2020.

297 to 241, I do believe for the first time since 1988, the, the Rust Belt, Triumvirate will splinter and not all go the same way.

a lot of our colleagues think he's gonna win Georgia by five points. I think it's gonna be more like one one and a half... I think he's favored

Yeah, that would give her exactly to seventy right

because Nebraska, even though Democrats are likely to carry the Omaha blue dot in its electoral vote, they're likely to sweep the state again as a whole by double digits

It's probably leaning to Trump by about one to two points, but that's gonna be a lot to overcome considering the situation.

but Georgia, if Trump doesn't win Georgia, I'll be I'll be surprised. I'll just... I I think it's gonna be very close, but, you know, one or two point win, it looks like, there to me.

And by the way, in Florida, Trump is probably going to win Florida by double digits. Based on the early voting numbers. He only won Florida by three in twenty twenty.

And so right now, we think Donald Trump wins it by about a point, but it's very possible that that actually ends up wrong on election day

Michigan is leans democratic... And so we think she ends up winning the state by about a point and a half, two points or so.

At the top, I have Trump with 297 electoral college votes, Kamala with 241.

At the top, I have Trump with 297 electoral college votes, Kamala with 241.

I said, I think Trump will go north of 300. I think he's gonna win, I think he's gonna win big.

I'm I'm interested in Texas too because I I do see that the senate race is very close. If I had to guess, I would say Cruz might win by two or three points just based on what what I've seen from the polling so far.

I would think the most likely is a two seventy, two sixty eight Harris winning electoral college. Narrow, narrow, narrow.

Like if Trump wins Florida by let's say eight or more points, which seems highly likely based on how voting is going so far

Kari Lake will get crushed in Arizona, but the trend for Trump is positive, with momentum in his direction.

but Maryland's gonna go to Trump by... It's gonna vote Biden over Trump by 30 points.

almost all of their seats are likely to go their way except for lean Republican category of Texas now because Democrat Colin Allred... But that race has still seemed to be something that's probably a three to four point race in favor of Republicans.

It's why it's so difficult for Jon Tester, despite his popularity in the state, to outrun, you know, Trump, you know, who's gonna probably win the state by double digits or more.

Now, Trump's gonna win that state by eight to 12 points up here, which in a Florida presidential election man is a massive blowout.