NFL season win totals

Graded under the published methodology. Each call shows what it scored and how much better than a naive guess that was. How this kind is scored →

Takes logged: 960
Graded: 284
Average accuracy: 49.1
Pundits: 146

How these land

Every graded call of this kind, by score.

Takes in each band

020406080

0 — dead wrongscore out of 100100 — nailed it

91 scored 80+98 under 40

Settled or waiting

284 / 960

graded

676 still pending

By season

20221 of 2 graded
202333 of 34 graded
20249 of 10 graded
2025241 of 261 graded

The field, on one line

Every pundit's win-total call for a team, against the season's actual number — the dark bar. A number is a dot; a range someone named, like 9–10 wins, is a pill across it. A tight cluster far from the bar is the whole industry missing together; the lone dot near the bar is somebody who left the herd and was right. Click a call to read the take it came from.

SF 202514 callsactual: 12 wins

Everyone was wrong about…

The field's average call against what happened. A range of three wins or fewer counts at its middle; a wider range, or an open-ended call like double digits, names no single number and is left out. Green means the team beat punditry's number — underrated; red means the field bought a story the season didn't.

KC 202513 calls-6.3 wins vs the field
NE 202514 calls+5 wins vs the field
SEA 20257 calls+5 wins vs the field
DEN 20257 calls+4.9 wins vs the field

Teams involved

Who is good at this

MissedTakes score for this kind only. Zero means no better than guessing.

Andrew Santino100 accuracy · 1 graded+160.7
Cynthia Frelund80 accuracy · 1 graded+150.0
Nick Shook

By publisher

Move the Sticks (podcast)86.7 · 3 graded
The Colin Cowherd Podcast (podcast)39.8 · 21 graded

Every NFL season win totals take

426–450 of 960