Chamber Control
Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.
- Takes logged
- 102
- Graded
- 53
- Average accuracy
- 79.2
- Pundits
- 44
52% settled
out of 100
have made one
How these calls land
Takes in each band
Settled or waiting
53 / 102
graded
49 still pending
By season
- 202453 of 53 graded
- 20260 of 49 graded
Who is good at chamber control
- Sarah McCammon100 accuracy · 2 graded+102.0
- Rachel Bitterkofer100 accuracy · 1 graded+102.0
- David French100 accuracy · 1 graded+102.0
- Dan Turrentine100 accuracy · 1 graded+102.0
- Steve Deace Show100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Mark Sutton100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Tim Miller100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Steve Deace100 accuracy · 3 graded+100.7
- Nathan Gonzales100 accuracy · 2 graded+100.5
- Sean Trende100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Carl Cannon100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Steve Bannon100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Clay Travis100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Logan Phillips100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Newt Gingrich100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Jacob Rubashkin100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Megyn Kelly100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- David Pakman100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Erick-Woods Erickson100 accuracy · 3 graded+75.0
- Matthew Yglesias100 accuracy · 2 graded+50.5
- Isaac Saul67 accuracy · 3 graded+34.7
- Daniel Horowitz100 accuracy · 3 graded+25.5
- Lakshya Jain50 accuracy · 4 graded+0.0
- Kirk Bado50 accuracy · 2 graded+0.0
- Gabe Fleisher50 accuracy · 2 graded+0.0
- Bret Stephens50 accuracy · 2 graded+0.0
- Andrew Heaton50 accuracy · 2 graded+0.0
- Justin Robert Young50 accuracy · 2 graded+0.0
- Bill Scher50 accuracy · 2 graded+0.0
- Michael Cohen50 accuracy · 2 graded+0.0
- Henry Olsen100 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Sam Wang0 accuracy · 1 graded-100.0
provisionalRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.
By publisher
- The NPR Politics Podcast100.0 · 2 graded
- Tangle (newsletter)100.0 · 1 graded
- The David Pakman Show100.0 · 2 graded
- The Inside Elections Podcast100.0 · 3 graded
- RealClearPolitics Podcast100.0 · 2 graded
- Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar100.0 · 1 graded
- Newt's World100.0 · 1 graded
- The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show100.0 · 1 graded
- The Bulwark Podcast (feed title: The Bulwark Daily)87.5 · 4 graded
- Steve Deace Show100.0 · 7 graded
- Erick Erickson newsletter (Substack)100.0 · 3 graded
- The Megyn Kelly Show100.0 · 4 graded
- Slow Boring100.0 · 2 graded
- Politics Politics Politics (Justin Robert Young)55.0 · 13 graded
- Tangle (podcast)50.0 · 2 graded
- Split Ticket50.0 · 4 graded
- Princeton Election Consortium (Sam Wang)0.0 · 1 graded
Every chamber control take
51–75 of 102
We we might get the senate, you know, going Republican. We kinda half expect that.
That corresponds to about an 8 in 9 probability that Democrats will win the popular vote – and take control of the House. This is consistent with Nancy Pelosi's public statement that she expects Democrats to regain the majority.
and I think Republicans keep a narrow margin in the house
As far as the Senate goes, it seems clear the Senate Senate is going to be going to Republicans... I expect Republicans to have control of the Senate.
The GOP presently has a narrow 220 to 212 margin. I expect the GOP could see its margin go up to 225 or 230.
At a minimum, the Republicans should pick up two seats, for majority control of the Senate.
I mean, I think the senate ranges from, like, 51 Republicans to 57
Our final forecast gives Republicans a 73% chance to take the Senate
Our final forecast gives Democrats a 53% chance of retaking the House
I'd also add the Senate even if Trump were to lose. I feel really good about the Senate... I feel the most confident of all in Republicans taking back the Senate.
The Democrats are about to lose control of the senate in all likelihood. But let's just say they hold on by, you know, a vote...
We must win this, and we gotta hold the house. We have to hold the house. I'm glad we're gonna take the senate, but we have to hold the house.
There's still a pathway for it to happen, but you know, they're underdogs. Two and three shots you hold onto the Senate maybe a touch more.
If we pick up the Senate, which I'm pretty certain we will
I believe the map is too favorable to Republicans to not hand them the senate
but I don't believe that a shoddy get out the vote operation and a reliance on low propensity voters in blue states is enough for them to win the house. Republican White House, Republican Senate, Democratic House
I got to two nineteen two sixteen Republicans... It would put them at two nineteen, but it could easily go either way.
On the senate side, I actually believe now 52 is the low number that Republicans will end up with.
the scenario for me is Trump wins, senate goes Republican, Democrats get the house ... I end up with the house, probably squeaks back the other way for idiosyncratic reasons.
The senate's gone, to to Republicans, and that's pretty set. ... I end up with senate for the Republicans.
I also argued that Trump had a path to winning in Michigan, that Democrats would win the House
Like you said, Republicans are still favored to take control of the senate this year.
our outlook in the senate is pretty favorable to Republicans. They need a net gain of two seats to reclaim the majority, and we have them favored.
Because it's looking like they're gonna lose the senate... They're most likely gonna lose the Senate.
It's basically tossed by Harris' latest for the presidency, but then Republican senate. So it's that Sarah knows the most likely
By topic
US Elections — chamber control (53 graded)
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