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Race Winners

Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.

Takes logged
631
Graded
462

73% settled

Average accuracy
76.6

out of 100

Pundits
105

have made one

How these calls land

Every graded call of this kind, bucketed by score.

Takes in each band

020406080
0 — dead wrongscore out of 100100 — nailed it
354 scored 80+108 scored under 40

Settled or waiting

462 / 631

graded

169 still pending

By season

  • 2024462 of 464 graded
  • 20260 of 167 graded

Who is good at race winners

MissedTakes score for this kind of prediction only — accuracy measured against what a naive guess would have scored. Zero means no better than guessing.

provisionalRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.

By publisher

The same record pooled across everyone writing under one banner.

Every race winners take

451–475 of 631

  • Hit · 100Buck SextonRace Winners2024 season

    Georgia's out of reach for Kamala.

    a naive guess scored 0+101 skillsaid Oct 30, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100Carol MarkowitzRace Winners2024 season

    I think that he has positioned very well to win... I think we're going to have a victory on election night.

    a naive guess scored 0+101 skillsaid Oct 30, 2024the article →
  • Miss · 0Lakshya JainRace Winners2024 season

    with the Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, we have Harris narrowly winning

    a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Oct 30, 2024the article →
  • Miss · 0Lakshya JainRace Winners2024 season

    Democrats are probably gonna have the hardest time keeping Wisconsin. Now we think they keep it by about twenty twenty margins, but it's very close.

    a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Oct 30, 2024the article →
  • Miss · 0Tim MillerRace Winners2024 season

    Kamala Harris is the nominee. Kamala Harris is gonna be the next president. It is winning time.

    a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Oct 30, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100Steve DeaceRace Winners2024 season

    But because what you articulated is my own analysis and I think Trump is going to win, I will buy.

    a naive guess scored 0+101 skillsaid Oct 30, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100David PakmanRace Winners2024 season

    There's a very interesting race in Texas over on the Senate side, which is Ted Cruz again struggling to defend his seat... Now if you just said fifty fifty bet who wins, I think the numbers still favor Ted Cruz.

    a naive guess scored 100+0 skillsaid Oct 30, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100Isaac SaulRace Winners2024 season

    It was a silly and reckless move from a campaign well positioned to win this election, but still often prone to getting in its own way.

    a naive guess scored 0+101 skillsaid Oct 30, 2024the article →
  • Miss · 0Nate SilverRace Winners2024 season

    The Silver Bullets and forecast as of this morning has Harris with a fifty three percent chance and Trump at forty seven percent.

    a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Oct 30, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100Steve BannonRace Winners2024 season

    Bannon told Axios he feels amazing and empowered, predicting a major win for Donald Trump in 2024.

    a naive guess scored 0+101 skillsaid Oct 30, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100Justin Robert YoungRace Winners2024 season

    Sherrod Brown, you know, is running in a state that we know Donald Trump will win.

    a naive guess scored 100+0 skillsaid Oct 30, 2024the article →
  • Miss · 0Gabe FleisherRace Winners2024 season

    I I think most... Honestly, if I were to rank them, I'd say most likely would be... I I I do think Harris' slight edge. It's basically tossed by Harris' latest for the presidency, but then Republican senate.

    a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Oct 30, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100Cenk UygurRace Winners2024 season

    Meanwhile, we're gonna lose the election because they cannot find a way to reach undecided voters.

    a naive guess scored 0+101 skillsaid Oct 30, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100Cenk UygurRace Winners2024 season

    Kamala Harris' campaign just pulled out of North Carolina. It... There... Trump's gonna win anyway in that state. So they stopped advertising there.

    a naive guess scored 100+0 skillsaid Oct 30, 2024the article →
  • Miss · 0Mike MurphyRace Winners2024 season

    I think she's definitely gonna win the popular vote.

    a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Oct 29, 2024the article →
  • Miss · 0Mike MurphyRace Winners2024 season

    And my gut is Trump has a ceiling, and it'll break to her... So if you... I had to bet, I'm to the point where I bet on her... It's the electoral college, of course. Yeah. But but only by a whisker.

    a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Oct 29, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100Selena ZitoRace Winners2024 season

    However, I would give I would rather be Donald Trump in these closing days than I would be with, with Harris. She has struggled to, in this state. She's not particularly a good fit for this state... My gut tells me that I would rather be Trump than Harris at this moment.

    a naive guess scored 0+101 skillsaid Oct 29, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100Buck SextonRace Winners2024 season

    I mean, we're very confident that you're gonna You're gonna pull this one out, and I think you are too... You are going to be in the Senate.

    a naive guess scored 100+0 skillsaid Oct 29, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100Bill O'ReillyRace Winners2024 season

    Yes, I agree with that assessment. I believe at this point that Trump is going to win both the popular and the electoral popular... But my belief today, based upon the numbers, is that Trump will win

    a naive guess scored 0+101 skillsaid Oct 29, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100Clay TravisRace Winners2024 season

    Joined now by the next Senator from the great state of Indiana, Jim Banks... Congressman soon to be Senator... we look forward to seeing you in the Senate in a few months.

    a naive guess scored 100+0 skillsaid Oct 29, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100Clay TravisRace Winners2024 season

    Because Bill, I don't just think personally that Trump is going to win.

    a naive guess scored 0+101 skillsaid Oct 29, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100Steve DeaceRace Winners2024 season

    Bernie Moreno has run a good enough campaign that I think he's gonna he's gonna beat Sherrod Brown

    a naive guess scored 0+101 skillsaid Oct 29, 2024the article →
  • Miss · 0Steve DeaceRace Winners2024 season

    since the the Wisconsin Republican candidate doesn't have as much baggage as as Carrie Lake does, I'll choose that one. But I think Republicans are gonna flip one of those

    a naive guess scored 100-101 skillsaid Oct 29, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100Steve DeaceRace Winners2024 season

    I believe that Trump is gonna sweep the Sun Belt, and and I think for the first time since 1988, the, the the Rust Belt, the big three Rust Belt states, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, will not all vote in mass.

    a naive guess scored 0+101 skillsaid Oct 29, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100Steve DeaceRace Winners2024 season

    That's assuming you could... You're still gonna win Wisconsin then.

    a naive guess scored 0+101 skillsaid Oct 29, 2024the article →

By topic

US Elections — race winners (462 graded)

Topics we cover today: NFL, US Elections. Every kind of prediction belongs to one of them; this page sits above the topic so that adding another does not mean rewriting every link.