Race Winners
Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.
- Takes logged
- 631
- Graded
- 462
- Average accuracy
- 76.6
- Pundits
- 105
73% settled
out of 100
have made one
How these calls land
Takes in each band
Settled or waiting
462 / 631
graded
169 still pending
By season
- 2024462 of 464 graded
- 20260 of 167 graded
Who is good at race winners
- Doug Schoen100 accuracy · 2 graded+102.0
- Domenico Montanaro100 accuracy · 2 graded+102.0
- Douglas Wilson100 accuracy · 1 graded+102.0
- Ghad Saad100 accuracy · 1 graded+102.0
- AB Stoddard100 accuracy · 1 graded+102.0
- Ryan Girdusky100 accuracy · 1 graded+102.0
- David Beard100 accuracy · 2 graded+101.0
- Hugh Hewitt100 accuracy · 2 graded+101.0
- Stu Burguiere100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Wosny Lambre100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Stephen L. Miller100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Steve Deace Show100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Bill O'Reilly100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Francesca Fiorentini100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Selena Zito100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Carol Markowitz100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Michael Knowles100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- David Frum100 accuracy · 2 graded+100.0
- Bob Vander Plaats100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Michael Duncan100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Elizabeth Stauffer100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Mehdi Hasan100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Steve Kornacki100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Steve Bannon100 accuracy · 5 graded+89.2
- Brent Buchanan92 accuracy · 7 graded+84.5
- Buck Sexton100 accuracy · 12 graded+84.1
- Steve Deace93 accuracy · 18 graded+84.0
- Newt Gingrich83 accuracy · 5 graded+83.3
- Megyn Kelly100 accuracy · 10 graded+82.2
- Ben Shapiro87 accuracy · 30 graded+81.7
- Isaac Saul80 accuracy · 14 graded+80.4
- Daniel Horowitz75 accuracy · 3 graded+76.0
- Cenk Uygur100 accuracy · 4 graded+75.8
- Spencer Kimball75 accuracy · 8 graded+75.4
- Clay Travis98 accuracy · 24 graded+70.5
- Erick-Woods Erickson93 accuracy · 24 graded+69.2
- Scott Rasmussen100 accuracy · 3 graded+68.0
- Ryan Grim67 accuracy · 5 graded+67.3
- Nate Silver63 accuracy · 5 graded+63.1
- Tom Bevan100 accuracy · 4 graded+51.0
- Sam Wang75 accuracy · 8 graded+50.0
- David Axelrod100 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Henry Olsen100 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Michael Cohen100 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Justin Robert Young100 accuracy · 5 graded+44.4
- Saagar Enjeti76 accuracy · 14 graded+40.9
- Carl Cannon100 accuracy · 10 graded+37.5
- Bill Scher56 accuracy · 9 graded+34.0
- Seth Keshel100 accuracy · 9 graded+33.3
- Harrison Lavelle100 accuracy · 3 graded+33.3
- Emily Jashinsky33 accuracy · 3 graded+33.3
- Sean Spicer81 accuracy · 15 graded+30.7
- Robby Soave75 accuracy · 7 graded+25.0
- Kirk Bado75 accuracy · 4 graded+25.0
- Tim Miller27 accuracy · 10 graded+20.2
- Josh Holmes100 accuracy · 5 graded+20.2
- Lakshya Jain41 accuracy · 47 graded+14.9
- David Pakman75 accuracy · 15 graded+9.0
- David Nir100 accuracy · 9 graded+0.0
- Jeff Singer100 accuracy · 7 graded+0.0
- Nathan Gonzales92 accuracy · 7 graded+0.0
- Mike Murphy0 accuracy · 4 graded+0.0
- Logan Phillips25 accuracy · 3 graded+0.0
- Max McCall50 accuracy · 2 graded+0.0
- Jon Favreau100 accuracy · 2 graded+0.0
- Bill Kristol0 accuracy · 2 graded+0.0
- Simon Rosenberg0 accuracy · 2 graded+0.0
- James Carville0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Jon Lovett0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- John Heilemann0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Gabe Fleisher0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Sean Trende100 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Dave Weigel100 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Lanny Davis0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- John Ashbrook100 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Liz Cheney0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Nomiki Konst0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Andrew Heaton0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- David Shuster0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Mariel Garza100 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Tom LoBianco0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Mark McKinnon0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Phil Wegman100 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Krystal Ball60 accuracy · 14 graded-4.2
- Jacob Rubashkin68 accuracy · 11 graded-5.3
- Rising (The Hill)0 accuracy · 3 graded-66.7
- Tommy Vietor0 accuracy · 1 graded-102.0
provisionalRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.
By publisher
- The NPR Politics Podcast100.0 · 2 graded
- Honestly with Bari Weiss100.0 · 1 graded
- The Dispatch Podcast100.0 · 1 graded
- Steve Deace Show94.4 · 27 graded
- The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show98.3 · 40 graded
- The Ben Shapiro Show85.5 · 37 graded
- Tangle (podcast)73.6 · 12 graded
- Erick Erickson newsletter (Substack)93.0 · 24 graded
- The Young Turks75.0 · 8 graded
- Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova62.5 · 5 graded
- The Megyn Kelly Show84.5 · 34 graded
- Newt's World86.1 · 23 graded
- RealClearPolitics Podcast94.4 · 19 graded
- The Downballot (podcast)100.0 · 9 graded
- Tangle (newsletter)75.0 · 6 graded
- Princeton Election Consortium (Sam Wang)75.0 · 8 graded
- Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar73.0 · 41 graded
- The Bulwark Podcast (feed title: The Bulwark Daily)43.3 · 16 graded
- Politics Politics Politics (Justin Robert Young)62.2 · 22 graded
- Ruthless Podcast100.0 · 8 graded
- Split Ticket66.2 · 50 graded
- The David Pakman Show75.0 · 15 graded
- The Inside Elections Podcast85.3 · 20 graded
- Hacks On Tap11.1 · 7 graded
- The Downballot (newsletter)100.0 · 9 graded
- Face the Nation transcripts (CBS News)0.0 · 1 graded
- Pod Save America50.0 · 6 graded
- Rising (The Hill)41.7 · 11 graded
Every race winners take
476–500 of 631
you denied Trump the state of Michigan. ... So that is the state that I am I'm I'm giving them
I mean, you've got Bob Casey going down in Pennsylvania as well.
so I think I think McCormick is gonna win in Penn...
Massachusetts has 330,000 Puerto Ricans. Massachusetts is going to go to Harris.
And similarly, Trump is not going to win New York. Trump is lying and saying we might win New York and New Jersey, but he is not going to.
The election will not depend on New Jersey, which has nearly half a million Puerto Ricans. Kamala Harris is going to win that.
Carrie Lake is about to lose her race for senate in Arizona... In all likelihood, Carrie Lake will be defeated once again... So Kari Lake lost in 2022, will almost certainly lose in 2024
Florida has 1,200,000 Puerto Rican people living within it. But most likely, Florida is gone to Trump.
Democratic state Sen. Kelly Morrison, who is poised to easily win a seat in Congress, resigned from the legislature in July
a critical goal with Democrat Josh Stein favored to win the governorship
I knew that not endorsing wasn't going to change the outcome of the vote in California, where Harris has a healthy lead.
I feel really good. I think Donald Trump's gonna win. I wouldn't say it's a lock, but the way that the other candidate is acting tells me she's got horrible, horrible numbers that she's looking at.
I also feel good about North Carolina. You know, it's just one of those states that's broken late and broken our way time after time over the last ten years, and it's just a matter of banking those... I think we can get it done.
She's gonna carry Donald Trump's home state by a million and a half votes or more.
Kamala Harris is gonna carry her home state by 4,000,000 votes or more.
would crawl over broken glass in New York to vote for Donald Trump in a state that, vice president Harris is going to win already
Look, I think Kamala is going to win the state of New York. I want everybody in New York to go vote.
Instead their pursuit of Trump destroyed them. And he's going to get re elected president, I believe
Oh, I think Kama loses.
Two Fridays ago, I shared my predictions for the twenty twenty four election. In that addition, I predicted Harris was on track to lose Michigan... Democratic representative Alyssa Slotkin's warning that Harris was underwater in internal polling solidified my sense that she's going to lose this state. Nothing that's happened since has changed my mind about that prediction.
it would take something very surprising, I think, for the Democrats to win the Montana senate race right now even though Jon Tester is a good candidate. It's just the nature of our polarized times.
And I see no reason why the late break shouldn't be even tiny bit to Harris... I think she could well win. I actually do think she's gonna win.
I predicted Trump will win Michigan, and Harris's struggles with Muslim and Arab-American voters are a big reason why. ... In that edition, I predicted Harris was on track to lose Michigan.
But yeah, I mean, Comma's not gonna win tex right exactly.
And if she wins North Carolina and Nevada, which you know, I still think she's modestly favorite Nevado.
By topic
US Elections — race winners (462 graded)
Topics we cover today: NFL, US Elections. Every kind of prediction belongs to one of them; this page sits above the topic so that adding another does not mean rewriting every link.