Race Winners
Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.
- Takes logged
- 631
- Graded
- 462
- Average accuracy
- 76.6
- Pundits
- 105
73% settled
out of 100
have made one
How these calls land
Takes in each band
Settled or waiting
462 / 631
graded
169 still pending
By season
- 2024462 of 464 graded
- 20260 of 167 graded
Who is good at race winners
- Doug Schoen100 accuracy · 2 graded+102.0
- Domenico Montanaro100 accuracy · 2 graded+102.0
- Douglas Wilson100 accuracy · 1 graded+102.0
- Ghad Saad100 accuracy · 1 graded+102.0
- AB Stoddard100 accuracy · 1 graded+102.0
- Ryan Girdusky100 accuracy · 1 graded+102.0
- David Beard100 accuracy · 2 graded+101.0
- Hugh Hewitt100 accuracy · 2 graded+101.0
- Stu Burguiere100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Wosny Lambre100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Stephen L. Miller100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Steve Deace Show100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Bill O'Reilly100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Francesca Fiorentini100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Selena Zito100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Carol Markowitz100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Michael Knowles100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- David Frum100 accuracy · 2 graded+100.0
- Bob Vander Plaats100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Michael Duncan100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Elizabeth Stauffer100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Mehdi Hasan100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Steve Kornacki100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Steve Bannon100 accuracy · 5 graded+89.2
- Brent Buchanan92 accuracy · 7 graded+84.5
- Buck Sexton100 accuracy · 12 graded+84.1
- Steve Deace93 accuracy · 18 graded+84.0
- Newt Gingrich83 accuracy · 5 graded+83.3
- Megyn Kelly100 accuracy · 10 graded+82.2
- Ben Shapiro87 accuracy · 30 graded+81.7
- Isaac Saul80 accuracy · 14 graded+80.4
- Daniel Horowitz75 accuracy · 3 graded+76.0
- Cenk Uygur100 accuracy · 4 graded+75.8
- Spencer Kimball75 accuracy · 8 graded+75.4
- Clay Travis98 accuracy · 24 graded+70.5
- Erick-Woods Erickson93 accuracy · 24 graded+69.2
- Scott Rasmussen100 accuracy · 3 graded+68.0
- Ryan Grim67 accuracy · 5 graded+67.3
- Nate Silver63 accuracy · 5 graded+63.1
- Tom Bevan100 accuracy · 4 graded+51.0
- Sam Wang75 accuracy · 8 graded+50.0
- David Axelrod100 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Henry Olsen100 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Michael Cohen100 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Justin Robert Young100 accuracy · 5 graded+44.4
- Saagar Enjeti76 accuracy · 14 graded+40.9
- Carl Cannon100 accuracy · 10 graded+37.5
- Bill Scher56 accuracy · 9 graded+34.0
- Seth Keshel100 accuracy · 9 graded+33.3
- Harrison Lavelle100 accuracy · 3 graded+33.3
- Emily Jashinsky33 accuracy · 3 graded+33.3
- Sean Spicer81 accuracy · 15 graded+30.7
- Robby Soave75 accuracy · 7 graded+25.0
- Kirk Bado75 accuracy · 4 graded+25.0
- Tim Miller27 accuracy · 10 graded+20.2
- Josh Holmes100 accuracy · 5 graded+20.2
- Lakshya Jain41 accuracy · 47 graded+14.9
- David Pakman75 accuracy · 15 graded+9.0
- David Nir100 accuracy · 9 graded+0.0
- Jeff Singer100 accuracy · 7 graded+0.0
- Nathan Gonzales92 accuracy · 7 graded+0.0
- Mike Murphy0 accuracy · 4 graded+0.0
- Logan Phillips25 accuracy · 3 graded+0.0
- Max McCall50 accuracy · 2 graded+0.0
- Jon Favreau100 accuracy · 2 graded+0.0
- Bill Kristol0 accuracy · 2 graded+0.0
- Simon Rosenberg0 accuracy · 2 graded+0.0
- James Carville0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Jon Lovett0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- John Heilemann0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Gabe Fleisher0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Sean Trende100 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Dave Weigel100 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Lanny Davis0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- John Ashbrook100 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Liz Cheney0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Nomiki Konst0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Andrew Heaton0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- David Shuster0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Mariel Garza100 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Tom LoBianco0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Mark McKinnon0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Phil Wegman100 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Krystal Ball60 accuracy · 14 graded-4.2
- Jacob Rubashkin68 accuracy · 11 graded-5.3
- Rising (The Hill)0 accuracy · 3 graded-66.7
- Tommy Vietor0 accuracy · 1 graded-102.0
provisionalRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.
By publisher
- The NPR Politics Podcast100.0 · 2 graded
- Honestly with Bari Weiss100.0 · 1 graded
- The Dispatch Podcast100.0 · 1 graded
- Steve Deace Show94.4 · 27 graded
- The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show98.3 · 40 graded
- The Ben Shapiro Show85.5 · 37 graded
- Tangle (podcast)73.6 · 12 graded
- Erick Erickson newsletter (Substack)93.0 · 24 graded
- The Young Turks75.0 · 8 graded
- Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova62.5 · 5 graded
- The Megyn Kelly Show84.5 · 34 graded
- Newt's World86.1 · 23 graded
- RealClearPolitics Podcast94.4 · 19 graded
- The Downballot (podcast)100.0 · 9 graded
- Tangle (newsletter)75.0 · 6 graded
- Princeton Election Consortium (Sam Wang)75.0 · 8 graded
- Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar73.0 · 41 graded
- The Bulwark Podcast (feed title: The Bulwark Daily)43.3 · 16 graded
- Politics Politics Politics (Justin Robert Young)62.2 · 22 graded
- Ruthless Podcast100.0 · 8 graded
- Split Ticket66.2 · 50 graded
- The David Pakman Show75.0 · 15 graded
- The Inside Elections Podcast85.3 · 20 graded
- Hacks On Tap11.1 · 7 graded
- The Downballot (newsletter)100.0 · 9 graded
- Face the Nation transcripts (CBS News)0.0 · 1 graded
- Pod Save America50.0 · 6 graded
- Rising (The Hill)41.7 · 11 graded
Every race winners take
551–575 of 631
will come up short, you know, in the Sun Belt where, you know, Joe Biden just barely won it, you know, in Arizona and Georgia last time
I am I am $5 confident Kamala Harris is gonna win. I would not be very surprised if Trump won... this is a coin flip, and I'm marginally thinking Kamala.
while Allred and, Riskell Powell are knocking on the door in Florida and Texas, it seems hard to believe they could actually overcome
That's that's Blue Wall plus Nebraska two, not winning anything in the Sun Belt.
I'm inclined to believe Harris can gut out, the Rust Belt with ground game
while Allred and, Riskell Powell are knocking on the door in Florida and Texas, it seems hard to believe they could actually overcome, without there being a really broader blue wave
I still put the edge in the Harris camp Yeah. Because I do feel that there is a ground game mismatch here.
I think that Trump will win because I think that the country will not elect a woman. ... my hunch is he wins because I don't think the country will elect a woman
Trump is the favorite to win, but it's probably fifty five percent to forty five percent. Kamala can still win this race.
I'm already looking forward to the real truth being told because as soon as Kamala loses, and I think she's going to lose officially in twelve days
I will tell you James Carville. He's got a piece out, today in which he says he knows she's gonna win. He says he just he just knows it. What Carville is saying is Trump's gonna lose and Kamala's gonna win
In fact, I would say he should feel pretty good about Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
In fact, I would say he should feel pretty good about Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
In fact, I would say he should feel pretty good about Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
So first of all, if Trump wins, he's not going to win with 50% plus one vote. He's... Trump's going to lose the popular vote almost certainly, but he might win electorally.
which was hard to say in PA, but in the in the rest of them, in Michigan specifically, it does look good for them.
Oh, it is a competitive race with Baldwin the advantage and she's she sanator Baldwin Tamy. Baldwyn going for a third term has been winning because she's getting five to seven percent of Trump voters
Democrats need to win all three seats that are up this year to win a 4-3 majority—a tough task in a year when Donald Trump is poised to comfortably carry the Buckeye State.
The latest Silver Bulletin forecast is Trump with a fifty three percent chance of winning the electoral college, Harris forty seven percent.
Abigail Jackson who works it with Josh Hawley has been tweeting about this nonstop... They're just in that guy's head like nobody's business, and that's why Holly's gonna win.
Who do you think is gonna win in the twenty twenty four presidential election? I'm starting to think that Kamala has a real chance, but I'm still going to go out on a limb and say Trump will pull it off.
And it might work, by the way. I'm not I'm I'm not suggesting that that... I think Trump has probably got a slight edge right now.
Democratic pollster Simon Rosenberg said the election is still far more likely to break for Harris than Trump... I still think we are where I have believed we have been for weeks now, favored to win.
These are all significant and critical advantages, which is why I think Trump will ultimately win the election.
It now looks like a lock in Montana.
By topic
US Elections — race winners (462 graded)
Topics we cover today: NFL, US Elections. Every kind of prediction belongs to one of them; this page sits above the topic so that adding another does not mean rewriting every link.