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Race Winners

Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.

Takes logged
631
Graded
462

73% settled

Average accuracy
76.6

out of 100

Pundits
105

have made one

How these calls land

Every graded call of this kind, bucketed by score.

Takes in each band

020406080
0 — dead wrongscore out of 100100 — nailed it
354 scored 80+108 scored under 40

Settled or waiting

462 / 631

graded

169 still pending

By season

  • 2024462 of 464 graded
  • 20260 of 167 graded

Who is good at race winners

MissedTakes score for this kind of prediction only — accuracy measured against what a naive guess would have scored. Zero means no better than guessing.

provisionalRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.

By publisher

The same record pooled across everyone writing under one banner.

Every race winners take

551–575 of 631

  • Hit · 100Bill ScherRace Winners2024 season

    will come up short, you know, in the Sun Belt where, you know, Joe Biden just barely won it, you know, in Arizona and Georgia last time

    a naive guess scored 0+102 skillsaid Oct 25, 2024the article →
  • Miss · 0Andrew HeatonRace Winners2024 season

    I am I am $5 confident Kamala Harris is gonna win. I would not be very surprised if Trump won... this is a coin flip, and I'm marginally thinking Kamala.

    a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Oct 25, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100Bill ScherRace Winners2024 season

    while Allred and, Riskell Powell are knocking on the door in Florida and Texas, it seems hard to believe they could actually overcome

    a naive guess scored 100+0 skillsaid Oct 25, 2024the article →
  • Miss · 0Bill ScherRace Winners2024 season

    That's that's Blue Wall plus Nebraska two, not winning anything in the Sun Belt.

    a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Oct 25, 2024the article →
  • Miss · 0Bill ScherRace Winners2024 season

    I'm inclined to believe Harris can gut out, the Rust Belt with ground game

    a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Oct 25, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100Bill ScherRace Winners2024 season

    while Allred and, Riskell Powell are knocking on the door in Florida and Texas, it seems hard to believe they could actually overcome, without there being a really broader blue wave

    a naive guess scored 100+0 skillsaid Oct 25, 2024the article →
  • Miss · 0Bill ScherRace Winners2024 season

    I still put the edge in the Harris camp Yeah. Because I do feel that there is a ground game mismatch here.

    a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Oct 25, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100AB StoddardRace Winners2024 season

    I think that Trump will win because I think that the country will not elect a woman. ... my hunch is he wins because I don't think the country will elect a woman

    a naive guess scored 0+102 skillsaid Oct 24, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100Ryan GirduskyRace Winners2024 season

    Trump is the favorite to win, but it's probably fifty five percent to forty five percent. Kamala can still win this race.

    a naive guess scored 0+102 skillsaid Oct 24, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100Clay TravisRace Winners2024 season

    I'm already looking forward to the real truth being told because as soon as Kamala loses, and I think she's going to lose officially in twelve days

    a naive guess scored 0+102 skillsaid Oct 24, 2024the article →
  • Miss · 0James CarvilleRace Winners2024 season

    I will tell you James Carville. He's got a piece out, today in which he says he knows she's gonna win. He says he just he just knows it. What Carville is saying is Trump's gonna lose and Kamala's gonna win

    a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Oct 24, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100Scott RasmussenRace Winners2024 season

    In fact, I would say he should feel pretty good about Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.

    a naive guess scored 0+102 skillsaid Oct 24, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100Scott RasmussenRace Winners2024 season

    In fact, I would say he should feel pretty good about Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.

    a naive guess scored 0+102 skillsaid Oct 24, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100Scott RasmussenRace Winners2024 season

    In fact, I would say he should feel pretty good about Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.

    a naive guess scored 100+0 skillsaid Oct 24, 2024the article →
  • Miss · 0David PakmanRace Winners2024 season

    So first of all, if Trump wins, he's not going to win with 50% plus one vote. He's... Trump's going to lose the popular vote almost certainly, but he might win electorally.

    a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Oct 24, 2024the article →
  • Miss · 0Saagar EnjetiRace Winners2024 season

    which was hard to say in PA, but in the in the rest of them, in Michigan specifically, it does look good for them.

    a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Oct 24, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100Dave WeigelRace Winners2024 season

    Oh, it is a competitive race with Baldwin the advantage and she's she sanator Baldwin Tamy. Baldwyn going for a third term has been winning because she's getting five to seven percent of Trump voters

    a naive guess scored 100+0 skillsaid Oct 24, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100David NirRace Winners2024 season

    Democrats need to win all three seats that are up this year to win a 4-3 majority—a tough task in a year when Donald Trump is poised to comfortably carry the Buckeye State.

    a naive guess scored 100+0 skillsaid Oct 24, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100Nate SilverRace Winners2024 season

    The latest Silver Bulletin forecast is Trump with a fifty three percent chance of winning the electoral college, Harris forty seven percent.

    a naive guess scored 0+102 skillsaid Oct 24, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100John AshbrookRace Winners2024 season

    Abigail Jackson who works it with Josh Hawley has been tweeting about this nonstop... They're just in that guy's head like nobody's business, and that's why Holly's gonna win.

    a naive guess scored 100+0 skillsaid Oct 24, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100Ghad SaadRace Winners2024 season

    Who do you think is gonna win in the twenty twenty four presidential election? I'm starting to think that Kamala has a real chance, but I'm still going to go out on a limb and say Trump will pull it off.

    a naive guess scored 0+102 skillsaid Oct 24, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100Tom BevanRace Winners2024 season

    And it might work, by the way. I'm not I'm I'm not suggesting that that... I think Trump has probably got a slight edge right now.

    a naive guess scored 0+102 skillsaid Oct 23, 2024the article →
  • Miss · 0Simon RosenbergRace Winners2024 season

    Democratic pollster Simon Rosenberg said the election is still far more likely to break for Harris than Trump... I still think we are where I have believed we have been for weeks now, favored to win.

    a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Oct 23, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100Isaac SaulRace Winners2024 season

    These are all significant and critical advantages, which is why I think Trump will ultimately win the election.

    a naive guess scored 0+102 skillsaid Oct 23, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100Megyn KellyRace Winners2024 season

    It now looks like a lock in Montana.

    a naive guess scored 0+102 skillsaid Oct 23, 2024the article →

By topic

US Elections — race winners (462 graded)

Topics we cover today: NFL, US Elections. Every kind of prediction belongs to one of them; this page sits above the topic so that adding another does not mean rewriting every link.