Race Winners
Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.
- Takes logged
- 612
- Graded
- 462
- Average accuracy
- 76.6
- Pundits
- 105
75% settled
out of 100
have made one
How these calls land
Takes in each band
Settled or waiting
462 / 612
graded
150 still pending
By season
- 2024462 of 464 graded
- 20260 of 148 graded
Who is good at race winners
- Doug Schoen100 accuracy · 2 graded+102.0
- Domenico Montanaro100 accuracy · 2 graded+102.0
- Douglas Wilson100 accuracy · 1 graded+102.0
- Ghad Saad100 accuracy · 1 graded+102.0
- AB Stoddard100 accuracy · 1 graded+102.0
- Ryan Girdusky100 accuracy · 1 graded+102.0
- David Beard100 accuracy · 2 graded+101.0
- Hugh Hewitt100 accuracy · 2 graded+101.0
- Stu Burguiere100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Wosny Lambre100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Stephen L. Miller100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Steve Deace Show100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Bill O'Reilly100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Francesca Fiorentini100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Selena Zito100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Carol Markowitz100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Michael Knowles100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- David Frum100 accuracy · 2 graded+100.0
- Bob Vander Plaats100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Michael Duncan100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Elizabeth Stauffer100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Mehdi Hasan100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Steve Kornacki100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Steve Bannon100 accuracy · 5 graded+89.2
- Brent Buchanan92 accuracy · 7 graded+84.5
- Buck Sexton100 accuracy · 12 graded+84.1
- Steve Deace93 accuracy · 18 graded+84.0
- Newt Gingrich83 accuracy · 5 graded+83.3
- Megyn Kelly100 accuracy · 10 graded+82.2
- Ben Shapiro87 accuracy · 30 graded+81.7
- Isaac Saul80 accuracy · 14 graded+80.4
- Daniel Horowitz75 accuracy · 3 graded+76.0
- Cenk Uygur100 accuracy · 4 graded+75.8
- Spencer Kimball75 accuracy · 8 graded+75.4
- Clay Travis98 accuracy · 24 graded+70.5
- Erick-Woods Erickson93 accuracy · 24 graded+69.2
- Scott Rasmussen100 accuracy · 3 graded+68.0
- Ryan Grim67 accuracy · 5 graded+67.3
- Nate Silver63 accuracy · 5 graded+63.1
- Tom Bevan100 accuracy · 4 graded+51.0
- Sam Wang75 accuracy · 8 graded+50.0
- David Axelrod100 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Henry Olsen100 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Michael Cohen100 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Justin Robert Young100 accuracy · 5 graded+44.4
- Saagar Enjeti76 accuracy · 14 graded+40.9
- Carl Cannon100 accuracy · 10 graded+37.5
- Bill Scher56 accuracy · 9 graded+34.0
- Seth Keshel100 accuracy · 9 graded+33.3
- Harrison Lavelle100 accuracy · 3 graded+33.3
- Emily Jashinsky33 accuracy · 3 graded+33.3
- Sean Spicer81 accuracy · 15 graded+30.7
- Robby Soave75 accuracy · 7 graded+25.0
- Kirk Bado75 accuracy · 4 graded+25.0
- Tim Miller27 accuracy · 10 graded+20.2
- Josh Holmes100 accuracy · 5 graded+20.2
- Lakshya Jain41 accuracy · 47 graded+14.9
- David Pakman75 accuracy · 15 graded+9.0
- David Nir100 accuracy · 9 graded+0.0
- Jeff Singer100 accuracy · 7 graded+0.0
- Nathan Gonzales92 accuracy · 7 graded+0.0
- Mike Murphy0 accuracy · 4 graded+0.0
- Logan Phillips25 accuracy · 3 graded+0.0
- Max McCall50 accuracy · 2 graded+0.0
- Jon Favreau100 accuracy · 2 graded+0.0
- Bill Kristol0 accuracy · 2 graded+0.0
- Simon Rosenberg0 accuracy · 2 graded+0.0
- James Carville0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Jon Lovett0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- John Heilemann0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Gabe Fleisher0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Sean Trende100 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Dave Weigel100 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Lanny Davis0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- John Ashbrook100 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Liz Cheney0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Nomiki Konst0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Andrew Heaton0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- David Shuster0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Mariel Garza100 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Tom LoBianco0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Mark McKinnon0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Phil Wegman100 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Krystal Ball60 accuracy · 14 graded-4.2
- Jacob Rubashkin68 accuracy · 11 graded-5.3
- Rising (The Hill)0 accuracy · 3 graded-66.7
- Tommy Vietor0 accuracy · 1 graded-102.0
provisionalRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.
By publisher
- The NPR Politics Podcast100.0 · 2 graded
- Honestly with Bari Weiss100.0 · 1 graded
- The Dispatch Podcast100.0 · 1 graded
- Steve Deace Show94.4 · 27 graded
- The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show98.3 · 40 graded
- The Ben Shapiro Show85.5 · 37 graded
- Tangle (podcast)73.6 · 12 graded
- Erick Erickson newsletter (Substack)93.0 · 24 graded
- The Young Turks75.0 · 8 graded
- Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova62.5 · 5 graded
- The Megyn Kelly Show84.5 · 34 graded
- Newt's World86.1 · 23 graded
- RealClearPolitics Podcast94.4 · 19 graded
- The Downballot (podcast)100.0 · 9 graded
- Tangle (newsletter)75.0 · 6 graded
- Princeton Election Consortium (Sam Wang)75.0 · 8 graded
- Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar73.0 · 41 graded
- The Bulwark Podcast (feed title: The Bulwark Daily)43.3 · 16 graded
- Politics Politics Politics (Justin Robert Young)62.2 · 22 graded
- Ruthless Podcast100.0 · 8 graded
- Split Ticket66.2 · 50 graded
- The David Pakman Show75.0 · 15 graded
- The Inside Elections Podcast85.3 · 20 graded
- Hacks On Tap11.1 · 7 graded
- The Downballot (newsletter)100.0 · 9 graded
- Face the Nation transcripts (CBS News)0.0 · 1 graded
- Pod Save America50.0 · 6 graded
- Rising (The Hill)41.7 · 11 graded
Every race winners take
126–150 of 612
- PendingKyle KondikRace Winners2026 season
The foursome we are flagging in this update are Reps. French Hill (R, AR-2) in Little Rock and Mike Turner (R, OH-10) in Dayton
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 16, 2026 - PendingKyle KondikRace Winners2026 season
This one merits a more competitive rating even as Crank is still favored, so it moves from Likely Republican to Leans Republican.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 16, 2026 - PendingKyle KondikRace Winners2026 season
some other race raters have recently moved the open New Hampshire Senate race from Leans Democratic to Toss-up... we don't share the assessment... We continue to view Rep. Chris Pappas (D, NH-1)... as a favorite.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 16, 2026 - PendingKyle KondikRace Winners2026 season
The most noteworthy change comes in New Jersey, where we now view Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R, NJ-7) as a modest underdog in his race against veteran Rebecca Bennett (D).
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 16, 2026 - PendingKyle KondikRace Winners2026 season
we are expanding our Likely Republican column, where warranted. The foursome we are flagging in this update are Reps. French Hill (R, AR-2) in Little Rock and Mike Turner (R, OH-10) in Dayton, as well as the open seats NV-2... and NY-21
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 16, 2026 - PendingKyle KondikRace Winners2026 season
Democratic gubernatorial nominee Rob Sand seems likely to carry the district even if he loses his race, which we call Leans Democratic
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 16, 2026 Texas is 1 million percent in play. Ken Paxton, the seat that Ken Paxton is running for. James Tallarico is probably the favorite candidate to win right now.
- PendingChuck ToddRace Winners2026 season
You're going to have a new Democratic governor likely in Iowa that very much is kind of in the Bashir mold
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 16, 2026 - PendingChuck ToddRace Winners2026 season
And it's in that environment that I'm skeptical that a John Sununu can pull off an upset in New Hampshire.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 16, 2026 - PendingChuck ToddRace Winners2026 season
It's in that environment that I'm skeptical that a John Sununu can pull off an upset in New Hampshire.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 16, 2026 - PendingChuck ToddRace Winners2026 season
You're going to have a new Democratic governor likely in Iowa that very much is kind of in the Beshear mold
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 16, 2026 - PendingChuck ToddRace Winners2026 season
I mean, there's Mike Rogers. He's not really made a compelling case to win over supposedly these Haley Stevens primary voters that he thinks he can win over. So I just don't see it there.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 16, 2026 - PendingChuck ToddRace Winners2026 season
and it may make it where Mike Rogers can't win in Michigan... that will provide enough padding for Abdul El-Sayed to hang on... He's not really made a compelling case to win over supposedly these Haley Stevens primary voters that he thinks he can win over. So I just don't see it there.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 16, 2026 - PendingKyle KondikRace Winners2026 season
There are two Safe Republican pickups and one Leans Republican pickup (the latter is the open TX-35).
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 15, 2026 - PendingKyle KondikRace Winners2026 season
two Leans Democratic pickups against Rep. David Valadao (R, CA-22) and in the open CA-48
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 15, 2026 - PendingKyle KondikRace Winners2026 season
Reps. Henry Cuellar (D, TX-28) and Vicente Gonzalez (D, TX-34) are rated as Leans Democratic.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 15, 2026 - PendingKyle KondikRace Winners2026 season
Utah: One Safe Democratic pickup: D+1.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 15, 2026 - PendingKyle KondikRace Winners2026 season
two Leans Democratic pickups against Rep. David Valadao (R, CA-22) and in the open CA-48
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 15, 2026 - PendingKyle KondikRace Winners2026 season
FL-22 (no incumbent) is Leans Republican
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 15, 2026 - PendingKyle KondikRace Winners2026 season
Rep. Darren Soto (D, FL-9) is Likely Republican
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 15, 2026 - PendingKyle KondikRace Winners2026 season
Rep. Shomari Figures (D, AL-2) is still an underdog in his race, but we just moved the race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 15, 2026 - PendingKyle KondikRace Winners2026 season
Landsman is rated Leans Democratic
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 15, 2026 - PendingKyle KondikRace Winners2026 season
Reps. Henry Cuellar (D, TX-28) and Vicente Gonzalez (D, TX-34) are rated as Leans Democratic.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 15, 2026 In a few hours, Jon Tester is expected to lose.
He's got Georgia.
By topic
US Elections — race winners (462 graded)
Topics we cover today: NFL, US Elections. Every kind of prediction belongs to one of them; this page sits above the topic so that adding another does not mean rewriting every link.