Race Winners

we are moving Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R, FL-27) from Likely Republican to Leans Republican

we're pushing Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R, IA-1) ... from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. She faces a third matchup with Christina Bohannan (D)

I'm not that worried about it. I think partisanship will kick in and will ultimately save this seat.

But the numbers are for a lot of us like Iowa. I just I don't see it. Kansas, I don't see it. I think the Republican because of partisanship is going to ultimately bring the crowd back home.

So if a decent turnout comes, you hold your nose and vote. You probably got to give it a lean D to Flanagan, but that's just my opinion.

as of right now, as we sit here on September 17, and I think in all likelihood through the election, we are using the 2022 map, the 06/02 map, that is likely to reelect Emmanuel Klieber.

Also, super popular Republican Governor Kelly Ayotte, almost sure to win re-election.

And unless something breaks soon, it looks like El-Sayed is probably going to be the senator from that state, I'm just saying.

You're going to vote for it again in November. You're going to reelect Maxine Waters.

The political environment suggests that a Democrat should win even with this sort of with in this context, should win a comma plus 2.8 state, but I think we should keep an eye on it.

Georgia is pretty much a, you know, a done deal at this point in in our forecast. Also has a seven point lead in the surveys, but its fundamentals are even better than that, and the race raters have it as a pretty sure thing.

Look, I think Texas and Iowa are going to end up being in the Republican camp.

I think we're going to win in Texas and Michigan, in my opinion. I think the GOP wins in Texas and Michigan.

A lot of money being poured into this Michigan Senate race, and you and I are both optimistic that Mike Rogers is going to get the win.

That's the one that I'm the most, I've said this before, I'm the most worried about that's going to be a flip for Democrats.

He's obviously super rich and super articulate. So he is, I think, will make up the difference here. But that's going to be a much tighter race than it should be.

So I think Collins and Sununu are the two likeliest that we have to give us big wins that no one's talking about.

So I think Collins and Sununu are the two likeliest that we have to give us big wins that no one's talking about.

I think the GOP wins in Texas and Michigan. It will be super close in Michigan.

I continue to believe that Ken Paxton is going to win in Texas. And now that there's money being spent, I think you'll start to see some of those numbers move.

And now it is back to its safely blue prior status, which means that Cleaver, who to his immense credit said he was gonna keep running no matter what, gets to run-in his old familiar district and is a lock in November.

I describe the Georgia senate race as a fait accompli, and the numbers are pushing in that direction. But does it feel that way on the ground?

as well as the open seats NV-2, which covers Reno and northern Nevada

we are expanding our Likely Republican column, where warranted. The foursome we are flagging in this update are Reps. French Hill (R, AR-2) in Little Rock and Mike Turner (R, OH-10) in Dayton, as well as the open seats NV-2... and NY-21

We are holding the Senate race as Leans Republican, at least for now, as IA-2's current incumbent, Rep. Ashley Hinson (R), tries to fend off state Rep. Josh Turek (D).