Race Winners

My assumption is Tallarico wins in most circumstances. I think that's how toast Paxton is.

My assumption is Tallarico wins in most circumstances. I think that's how toast Paxton is. It's my opinion.

In your home state of Pennsylvania, Josh Shapiro is up for reelection. He's at 58. The Republicans should not be spending money against Josh Shapiro. He's in.

I don't think him attacking, congresswoman Salazar is gonna change change any anything. She's gonna win no matter what.

right now in our forecast, decision to CHG forecast, it this race is in our toss-up column. Tallarico has a very small edge in terms of probability of victory, but broadly speaking, it's it's pretty close to fifty fifty, in terms of the the probability of winning.

In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed had led by 3.3 points in the FLIPR polling average prior to the NYT poll, so the poll should actually help him. The poll is consistent with El-Sayed paying a progressive “tax” of a few points, but probably still winning.

Running for governor now. Right? And almost certainly going to win that gubernatorial race.

So, I mean, I I I think this clinches it for her. I know that state a little bit. People don't move to Alaska, so they have to have their speech monitored.

Republicans, who were already favored in November, celebrated Nixon’s win , but some polls have shown her and other Florida Democrats with an unexpected opening.

If if I'm gonna throw my chips on this, I'm gonna throw my chips on Hansen on on on Henson. I think she's I think she's got everything it takes to win this thing.

And they got it by the way, they got a governor, Jackson, who's gonna win. Republican governor is gonna win. He's beaten the the the bottoms of Keisha Lance.

Republicans have a fighting change in Michigan and New Hampshire to offset a loss in North Carolina

to offset a loss in North Carolina and a failure to pick up Georgia

I would forget Trump and look at New Hampshire Governor Kelly Ayotte, who is cruising to re-election in a state Kamala Harris won despite a terrible national political climate.

I would also not be surprised if Ken Paxton and Ashley Henson and, you know, Roger Marshall, all these candidates, like you say, end up winning fairly comfortably in the end.

I would also not be surprised if Ken Paxton and Ashley Henson and, you know, Roger Marshall, all these candidates, like you say, end up winning fairly comfortably in the end.

I would also not be surprised if Ken Paxton and Ashley Henson and, you know, Roger Marshall, all these candidates, like you say, end up winning fairly comfortably in the end.

this would it shock me at all if if Ashley Henson wins by five or six? Like, no. It it wouldn't to be totally honest with you, it wouldn't shock me at all if she wins by 10.

I think maybe Jon Ossoff, he's gonna win reelection, probably.

he's been governor here for two terms. He's gonna be elected to a third term in November

Making the same move are ... Gov. Greg Abbott's (R-TX) reelection bid; the GOP is still favored in both

we are moving Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R, FL-27) from Likely Republican to Leans Republican

Making the same move are the open Florida gubernatorial race ... the GOP is still favored in both

we still have viewed him as a soft favorite to win, and we're going to formalize that by pushing his race to Leans Democratic

Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, and we'd still be surprised if that streak ends this year. But we're moving this from Likely Republican to Leans Republican.