Race Winners
Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.
- Takes logged
- 616
- Graded
- 466
- Average accuracy
- 76.0
- Pundits
- 105
76% settled
out of 100
have made one
How these calls land
Takes in each band
Settled or waiting
466 / 616
graded
150 still pending
By season
- 2024466 of 468 graded
- 20260 of 148 graded
Who is good at race winners
- Doug Schoen100 accuracy · 2 graded+102.0
- Domenico Montanaro100 accuracy · 2 graded+102.0
- Douglas Wilson100 accuracy · 1 graded+102.0
- Ghad Saad100 accuracy · 1 graded+102.0
- AB Stoddard100 accuracy · 1 graded+102.0
- Ryan Girdusky100 accuracy · 1 graded+102.0
- David Beard100 accuracy · 2 graded+101.0
- Hugh Hewitt100 accuracy · 2 graded+101.0
- Stu Burguiere100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Wosny Lambre100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Stephen L. Miller100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Steve Deace Show100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Bill O'Reilly100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Francesca Fiorentini100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Selena Zito100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Carol Markowitz100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Michael Knowles100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- David Frum100 accuracy · 2 graded+100.0
- Bob Vander Plaats100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Michael Duncan100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Elizabeth Stauffer100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Mehdi Hasan100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Steve Kornacki100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Steve Bannon100 accuracy · 5 graded+89.2
- Brent Buchanan92 accuracy · 7 graded+84.5
- Buck Sexton100 accuracy · 12 graded+84.1
- Steve Deace93 accuracy · 18 graded+84.0
- Newt Gingrich83 accuracy · 5 graded+83.3
- Megyn Kelly100 accuracy · 10 graded+82.2
- Ben Shapiro87 accuracy · 30 graded+81.7
- Isaac Saul80 accuracy · 14 graded+80.4
- Daniel Horowitz75 accuracy · 3 graded+76.0
- Cenk Uygur100 accuracy · 4 graded+75.8
- Spencer Kimball75 accuracy · 8 graded+75.4
- Clay Travis98 accuracy · 24 graded+70.5
- Erick-Woods Erickson93 accuracy · 24 graded+69.2
- Scott Rasmussen100 accuracy · 3 graded+68.0
- Ryan Grim67 accuracy · 5 graded+67.3
- Nate Silver63 accuracy · 5 graded+63.1
- Tom Bevan100 accuracy · 4 graded+51.0
- Sam Wang75 accuracy · 8 graded+50.0
- Henry Olsen100 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- David Axelrod100 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Michael Cohen100 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Saagar Enjeti76 accuracy · 14 graded+40.9
- Carl Cannon100 accuracy · 10 graded+37.5
- Seth Keshel100 accuracy · 9 graded+33.3
- Emily Jashinsky33 accuracy · 3 graded+33.3
- Harrison Lavelle100 accuracy · 3 graded+33.3
- Sean Spicer81 accuracy · 15 graded+30.7
- Robby Soave75 accuracy · 7 graded+25.0
- Kirk Bado75 accuracy · 4 graded+25.0
- Bill Scher50 accuracy · 10 graded+20.4
- Tim Miller27 accuracy · 10 graded+20.2
- Josh Holmes100 accuracy · 5 graded+20.2
- Lakshya Jain41 accuracy · 47 graded+14.9
- David Pakman75 accuracy · 15 graded+9.0
- Justin Robert Young75 accuracy · 6 graded+7.8
- David Nir100 accuracy · 9 graded+0.0
- Nathan Gonzales92 accuracy · 7 graded+0.0
- Mike Murphy0 accuracy · 4 graded+0.0
- Logan Phillips25 accuracy · 3 graded+0.0
- Bill Kristol0 accuracy · 2 graded+0.0
- Max McCall50 accuracy · 2 graded+0.0
- Jon Favreau100 accuracy · 2 graded+0.0
- Simon Rosenberg0 accuracy · 2 graded+0.0
- Tom LoBianco0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- James Carville0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Jon Lovett0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- John Heilemann0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Gabe Fleisher0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Sean Trende100 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Lanny Davis0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- John Ashbrook100 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Liz Cheney0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Nomiki Konst0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Andrew Heaton0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- David Shuster0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Mariel Garza100 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Dave Weigel100 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Mark McKinnon0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Phil Wegman100 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Jacob Rubashkin68 accuracy · 11 graded-5.3
- Jeff Singer88 accuracy · 8 graded-12.6
- Krystal Ball45 accuracy · 15 graded-28.6
- Rising (The Hill)0 accuracy · 3 graded-66.7
- Tommy Vietor0 accuracy · 1 graded-102.0
provisionalRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.
By publisher
- The NPR Politics Podcast100.0 · 2 graded
- Honestly with Bari Weiss100.0 · 1 graded
- The Dispatch Podcast100.0 · 1 graded
- Steve Deace Show94.4 · 27 graded
- The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show98.3 · 40 graded
- The Ben Shapiro Show85.5 · 37 graded
- Tangle (podcast)73.6 · 12 graded
- Erick Erickson newsletter (Substack)93.0 · 24 graded
- The Young Turks75.0 · 8 graded
- Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova62.5 · 5 graded
- The Megyn Kelly Show84.5 · 34 graded
- Newt's World86.1 · 23 graded
- RealClearPolitics Podcast94.4 · 19 graded
- Tangle (newsletter)75.0 · 6 graded
- Princeton Election Consortium (Sam Wang)75.0 · 8 graded
- The Downballot (podcast)93.8 · 10 graded
- The Bulwark Podcast (feed title: The Bulwark Daily)43.3 · 16 graded
- Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar71.4 · 42 graded
- Ruthless Podcast100.0 · 8 graded
- Politics Politics Politics (Justin Robert Young)56.7 · 24 graded
- Split Ticket66.2 · 50 graded
- The David Pakman Show75.0 · 15 graded
- The Inside Elections Podcast85.3 · 20 graded
- Hacks On Tap11.1 · 7 graded
- The Downballot (newsletter)100.0 · 9 graded
- Face the Nation transcripts (CBS News)0.0 · 1 graded
- Pod Save America50.0 · 6 graded
- Rising (The Hill)41.7 · 11 graded
Every race winners take
51–75 of 616
- PendingMiles ParksRace Winners2026 season
what this means is one less completely safe Republican seat in Congress... So there's that one seat, Emanuel Cleaver's seat in Missouri, that seems to be safe.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 29, 2026 I still i still think the the great wall of texas will hold uh with talarico
- PendingJohn AnzaloneRace Winners2026 season
And I think the same dynamic is going on with Al Said... And guess what? Like Murphy said, like, I think he's gonna win.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 29, 2026 to try and persuade John Ossoff to run for president because he will be perceived as a guy who tamed this this state that is really a purple state, but to win big in Georgia
if I had to bet money, I actually think Hamilton is gonna win, partially because Marshall's so weak
So I I would put money now on al Said for all his problems against Rogers... I think Trump is the stronger magnetic force, and net net, it'll be enough for him to win.
And I do expect her to win, but it is going to be an awful lot closer than people want it to be. So if you can get involved in that race...
he has, Darlene Graham up one point in South Carolina... Still, it's hard to imagine that it will vote for a Democrat
And, you know, Georgia's another one. Republicans are you know, any money invested in Georgia right now is probably just, you know, burning it
And North Carolina looks like, it's a state that is is going to go Democrat.
I don't expect Democrats to lose Minnesota. I really do not expect Democrats to lose Minnesota. In fact, we have that race as likely Democratic.
Alaska where I think Democrats are a little bit more favored and Nate thinks that, you know, they're a slight underdog
I think Darlene Graham is going to win if I had to, like, put some money down or, like, really say or make a prediction today. I would say Darlene Graham is going to win.
I will not, though, let people delude themselves. Salazar may win, to be clear, just because South Florida is unique.
The governor race, it looks like Rob Sand is going to win. I mean, every poll I've seen has him up.
I think Mary Patola is still going to lose in Alaska. I don't care what the polls say.
I think Tallarico can probably win Texas. I really do.
Iowa, I feel decently good about, though it's a tough year.
In North Carolina, former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper is mopping the floor with President Trump's hand picked candidate, Michael Whatley.
- PendingChuck ToddRace Winners2026 season
the three most important in those cases would be California, New York and Massachusetts. Well, all three of those are going to be fine.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 28, 2026 - PendingChuck ToddRace Winners2026 season
are there any blue states that are suddenly in trouble, that have major donors in it... In this case, the three most important in those cases would be California, New York, and Massachusetts. Well, all three of those are going to be fine.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 28, 2026 - PendingChuck ToddRace Winners2026 season
the three most important in those cases would be California, New York, and Massachusetts. Well, all three of those are going to be fine.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 28, 2026 - PendingChuck ToddRace Winners2026 season
the three most important in those cases would be California, New York and Massachusetts. Well, all three of those are going to be fine.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 28, 2026 - PendingChuck ToddRace Winners2026 season
My assumption is Tallarico wins in most circumstances. I think that's how toast Paxton is. It's my opinion.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 28, 2026 - PendingChuck ToddRace Winners2026 season
the three most important in those cases would be California, New York and Massachusetts. Well, all three of those are going to be fine.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 28, 2026
By topic
US Elections — race winners (466 graded)
Topics we cover today: NFL, US Elections. Every kind of prediction belongs to one of them; this page sits above the topic so that adding another does not mean rewriting every link.