Race Winners
Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.
- Takes logged
- 612
- Graded
- 462
- Average accuracy
- 76.6
- Pundits
- 105
75% settled
out of 100
have made one
How these calls land
Takes in each band
Settled or waiting
462 / 612
graded
150 still pending
By season
- 2024462 of 464 graded
- 20260 of 148 graded
Who is good at race winners
- Doug Schoen100 accuracy · 2 graded+102.0
- Domenico Montanaro100 accuracy · 2 graded+102.0
- Douglas Wilson100 accuracy · 1 graded+102.0
- Ghad Saad100 accuracy · 1 graded+102.0
- AB Stoddard100 accuracy · 1 graded+102.0
- Ryan Girdusky100 accuracy · 1 graded+102.0
- David Beard100 accuracy · 2 graded+101.0
- Hugh Hewitt100 accuracy · 2 graded+101.0
- Stu Burguiere100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Wosny Lambre100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Stephen L. Miller100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Steve Deace Show100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Bill O'Reilly100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Francesca Fiorentini100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Selena Zito100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Carol Markowitz100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Michael Knowles100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- David Frum100 accuracy · 2 graded+100.0
- Bob Vander Plaats100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Michael Duncan100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Elizabeth Stauffer100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Mehdi Hasan100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Steve Kornacki100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Steve Bannon100 accuracy · 5 graded+89.2
- Brent Buchanan92 accuracy · 7 graded+84.5
- Buck Sexton100 accuracy · 12 graded+84.1
- Steve Deace93 accuracy · 18 graded+84.0
- Newt Gingrich83 accuracy · 5 graded+83.3
- Megyn Kelly100 accuracy · 10 graded+82.2
- Ben Shapiro87 accuracy · 30 graded+81.7
- Isaac Saul80 accuracy · 14 graded+80.4
- Daniel Horowitz75 accuracy · 3 graded+76.0
- Cenk Uygur100 accuracy · 4 graded+75.8
- Spencer Kimball75 accuracy · 8 graded+75.4
- Clay Travis98 accuracy · 24 graded+70.5
- Erick-Woods Erickson93 accuracy · 24 graded+69.2
- Scott Rasmussen100 accuracy · 3 graded+68.0
- Ryan Grim67 accuracy · 5 graded+67.3
- Nate Silver63 accuracy · 5 graded+63.1
- Tom Bevan100 accuracy · 4 graded+51.0
- Sam Wang75 accuracy · 8 graded+50.0
- David Axelrod100 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Henry Olsen100 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Michael Cohen100 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Justin Robert Young100 accuracy · 5 graded+44.4
- Saagar Enjeti76 accuracy · 14 graded+40.9
- Carl Cannon100 accuracy · 10 graded+37.5
- Bill Scher56 accuracy · 9 graded+34.0
- Seth Keshel100 accuracy · 9 graded+33.3
- Harrison Lavelle100 accuracy · 3 graded+33.3
- Emily Jashinsky33 accuracy · 3 graded+33.3
- Sean Spicer81 accuracy · 15 graded+30.7
- Robby Soave75 accuracy · 7 graded+25.0
- Kirk Bado75 accuracy · 4 graded+25.0
- Tim Miller27 accuracy · 10 graded+20.2
- Josh Holmes100 accuracy · 5 graded+20.2
- Lakshya Jain41 accuracy · 47 graded+14.9
- David Pakman75 accuracy · 15 graded+9.0
- David Nir100 accuracy · 9 graded+0.0
- Jeff Singer100 accuracy · 7 graded+0.0
- Nathan Gonzales92 accuracy · 7 graded+0.0
- Mike Murphy0 accuracy · 4 graded+0.0
- Logan Phillips25 accuracy · 3 graded+0.0
- Max McCall50 accuracy · 2 graded+0.0
- Jon Favreau100 accuracy · 2 graded+0.0
- Bill Kristol0 accuracy · 2 graded+0.0
- Simon Rosenberg0 accuracy · 2 graded+0.0
- James Carville0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Jon Lovett0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- John Heilemann0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Gabe Fleisher0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Sean Trende100 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Dave Weigel100 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Lanny Davis0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- John Ashbrook100 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Liz Cheney0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Nomiki Konst0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Andrew Heaton0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- David Shuster0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Mariel Garza100 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Tom LoBianco0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Mark McKinnon0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Phil Wegman100 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Krystal Ball60 accuracy · 14 graded-4.2
- Jacob Rubashkin68 accuracy · 11 graded-5.3
- Rising (The Hill)0 accuracy · 3 graded-66.7
- Tommy Vietor0 accuracy · 1 graded-102.0
provisionalRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.
By publisher
- The NPR Politics Podcast100.0 · 2 graded
- Honestly with Bari Weiss100.0 · 1 graded
- The Dispatch Podcast100.0 · 1 graded
- Steve Deace Show94.4 · 27 graded
- The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show98.3 · 40 graded
- The Ben Shapiro Show85.5 · 37 graded
- Tangle (podcast)73.6 · 12 graded
- Erick Erickson newsletter (Substack)93.0 · 24 graded
- The Young Turks75.0 · 8 graded
- Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova62.5 · 5 graded
- The Megyn Kelly Show84.5 · 34 graded
- Newt's World86.1 · 23 graded
- RealClearPolitics Podcast94.4 · 19 graded
- The Downballot (podcast)100.0 · 9 graded
- Tangle (newsletter)75.0 · 6 graded
- Princeton Election Consortium (Sam Wang)75.0 · 8 graded
- Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar73.0 · 41 graded
- The Bulwark Podcast (feed title: The Bulwark Daily)43.3 · 16 graded
- Politics Politics Politics (Justin Robert Young)62.2 · 22 graded
- Ruthless Podcast100.0 · 8 graded
- Split Ticket66.2 · 50 graded
- The David Pakman Show75.0 · 15 graded
- The Inside Elections Podcast85.3 · 20 graded
- Hacks On Tap11.1 · 7 graded
- The Downballot (newsletter)100.0 · 9 graded
- Face the Nation transcripts (CBS News)0.0 · 1 graded
- Pod Save America50.0 · 6 graded
- Rising (The Hill)41.7 · 11 graded
Every race winners take
176–200 of 612
my prediction is that, he does take Nevada where Kamala Harris is currently projected to win
she will hold on to those three blue wall states
But you have her winning Texas and Florida? Yeah. Puerto Rican vote.
I've been predicting a landslide for at least three weeks now.
he's gonna take, Nevada and Arizona and Georgia, but that will not be quite enough to win
But you have her winning Texas and Florida? Yeah. Puerto Rican vote.
he's gonna flip back Arizona... because he's gonna take, Nevada and Arizona and Georgia
Georgia, of course, a big swing state. I think that one is in Trump's camp. I think he's going to win that.
Arizona is very likely. ... So Arizona, you know, looks as though that is going to be, a walkaway for for Trump.
Trump takes all the Sun Belt states. He takes North Carolina. He takes Georgia. I think both those are very likely.
I'm gonna I'm gonna say slight advantage Trump. And if I had to put out my map right now... ... here is best case scenario for Donald Trump, and I think it it actually is gonna materialize tonight.
And then you get to the Rust Belt states. I think Trump... You ready for this? I think Trump's gonna win all of them. ... Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, those states look more like Ohio than they do like Virginia
I think that he sneaks Nevada in there. ... I'd be a little surprised if he doesn't win Nevada.
As far as West Virginia, that, of course, the senate seat that that is going to go to the Republicans, that that would be Jim Justice, who's gonna win that senate seat pretty easily.
I think Moreno takes that seat. I think Sherrod Brown goes home.
I think Eric Hovde, who's the senatorial candidate in Wisconsin who is running extremely strong in Wisconsin right now, I think Hovde wins that race.
By the way, I think that Dave McCormack in Pennsylvania wins that race based on the early voting numbers.
There's certain states that I didn't give to Trump in this map. I didn't give Trump Virginia. Virginia is trending blue. It is not trending red.
I think Trump's gonna win all of them. ... And as for Wisconsin, Wisconsin is a notoriously difficult state to poll.
I think Trump's gonna win all of them. ... Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, those states look more like Ohio than they do like Virginia, meaning I believe that they are trending red.
Y’all, I cannot believe I am writing this, but Trump just might carry Kari Lake across the finish line.
Also, don’t be surprised if Eric Hovde and/or Dave McCormack win.
Also, don’t be surprised if Eric Hovde and/or Dave McCormack win.
I’m increasingly convinced Trump might win Nevada.
Ryan was this your mount basically. / More or less. I think I had Nevada going to Trump.
By topic
US Elections — race winners (462 graded)
Topics we cover today: NFL, US Elections. Every kind of prediction belongs to one of them; this page sits above the topic so that adding another does not mean rewriting every link.