Race Winners
Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.
- Takes logged
- 616
- Graded
- 466
- Average accuracy
- 76.0
- Pundits
- 105
76% settled
out of 100
have made one
How these calls land
Takes in each band
Settled or waiting
466 / 616
graded
150 still pending
By season
- 2024466 of 468 graded
- 20260 of 148 graded
Who is good at race winners
- Doug Schoen100 accuracy · 2 graded+102.0
- Domenico Montanaro100 accuracy · 2 graded+102.0
- Douglas Wilson100 accuracy · 1 graded+102.0
- Ghad Saad100 accuracy · 1 graded+102.0
- AB Stoddard100 accuracy · 1 graded+102.0
- Ryan Girdusky100 accuracy · 1 graded+102.0
- David Beard100 accuracy · 2 graded+101.0
- Hugh Hewitt100 accuracy · 2 graded+101.0
- Stu Burguiere100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Wosny Lambre100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Stephen L. Miller100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Steve Deace Show100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Bill O'Reilly100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Francesca Fiorentini100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Selena Zito100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Carol Markowitz100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Michael Knowles100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- David Frum100 accuracy · 2 graded+100.0
- Bob Vander Plaats100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Michael Duncan100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Elizabeth Stauffer100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Mehdi Hasan100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Steve Kornacki100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Steve Bannon100 accuracy · 5 graded+89.2
- Brent Buchanan92 accuracy · 7 graded+84.5
- Buck Sexton100 accuracy · 12 graded+84.1
- Steve Deace93 accuracy · 18 graded+84.0
- Newt Gingrich83 accuracy · 5 graded+83.3
- Megyn Kelly100 accuracy · 10 graded+82.2
- Ben Shapiro87 accuracy · 30 graded+81.7
- Isaac Saul80 accuracy · 14 graded+80.4
- Daniel Horowitz75 accuracy · 3 graded+76.0
- Cenk Uygur100 accuracy · 4 graded+75.8
- Spencer Kimball75 accuracy · 8 graded+75.4
- Clay Travis98 accuracy · 24 graded+70.5
- Erick-Woods Erickson93 accuracy · 24 graded+69.2
- Scott Rasmussen100 accuracy · 3 graded+68.0
- Ryan Grim67 accuracy · 5 graded+67.3
- Nate Silver63 accuracy · 5 graded+63.1
- Tom Bevan100 accuracy · 4 graded+51.0
- Sam Wang75 accuracy · 8 graded+50.0
- Henry Olsen100 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- David Axelrod100 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Michael Cohen100 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Saagar Enjeti76 accuracy · 14 graded+40.9
- Carl Cannon100 accuracy · 10 graded+37.5
- Seth Keshel100 accuracy · 9 graded+33.3
- Emily Jashinsky33 accuracy · 3 graded+33.3
- Harrison Lavelle100 accuracy · 3 graded+33.3
- Sean Spicer81 accuracy · 15 graded+30.7
- Robby Soave75 accuracy · 7 graded+25.0
- Kirk Bado75 accuracy · 4 graded+25.0
- Bill Scher50 accuracy · 10 graded+20.4
- Tim Miller27 accuracy · 10 graded+20.2
- Josh Holmes100 accuracy · 5 graded+20.2
- Lakshya Jain41 accuracy · 47 graded+14.9
- David Pakman75 accuracy · 15 graded+9.0
- Justin Robert Young75 accuracy · 6 graded+7.8
- David Nir100 accuracy · 9 graded+0.0
- Nathan Gonzales92 accuracy · 7 graded+0.0
- Mike Murphy0 accuracy · 4 graded+0.0
- Logan Phillips25 accuracy · 3 graded+0.0
- Bill Kristol0 accuracy · 2 graded+0.0
- Max McCall50 accuracy · 2 graded+0.0
- Jon Favreau100 accuracy · 2 graded+0.0
- Simon Rosenberg0 accuracy · 2 graded+0.0
- Tom LoBianco0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- James Carville0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Jon Lovett0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- John Heilemann0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Gabe Fleisher0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Sean Trende100 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Lanny Davis0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- John Ashbrook100 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Liz Cheney0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Nomiki Konst0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Andrew Heaton0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- David Shuster0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Mariel Garza100 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Dave Weigel100 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Mark McKinnon0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Phil Wegman100 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Jacob Rubashkin68 accuracy · 11 graded-5.3
- Jeff Singer88 accuracy · 8 graded-12.6
- Krystal Ball45 accuracy · 15 graded-28.6
- Rising (The Hill)0 accuracy · 3 graded-66.7
- Tommy Vietor0 accuracy · 1 graded-102.0
provisionalRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.
By publisher
- The NPR Politics Podcast100.0 · 2 graded
- Honestly with Bari Weiss100.0 · 1 graded
- The Dispatch Podcast100.0 · 1 graded
- Steve Deace Show94.4 · 27 graded
- The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show98.3 · 40 graded
- The Ben Shapiro Show85.5 · 37 graded
- Tangle (podcast)73.6 · 12 graded
- Erick Erickson newsletter (Substack)93.0 · 24 graded
- The Young Turks75.0 · 8 graded
- Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova62.5 · 5 graded
- The Megyn Kelly Show84.5 · 34 graded
- Newt's World86.1 · 23 graded
- RealClearPolitics Podcast94.4 · 19 graded
- Tangle (newsletter)75.0 · 6 graded
- Princeton Election Consortium (Sam Wang)75.0 · 8 graded
- The Downballot (podcast)93.8 · 10 graded
- The Bulwark Podcast (feed title: The Bulwark Daily)43.3 · 16 graded
- Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar71.4 · 42 graded
- Ruthless Podcast100.0 · 8 graded
- Politics Politics Politics (Justin Robert Young)56.7 · 24 graded
- Split Ticket66.2 · 50 graded
- The David Pakman Show75.0 · 15 graded
- The Inside Elections Podcast85.3 · 20 graded
- Hacks On Tap11.1 · 7 graded
- The Downballot (newsletter)100.0 · 9 graded
- Face the Nation transcripts (CBS News)0.0 · 1 graded
- Pod Save America50.0 · 6 graded
- Rising (The Hill)41.7 · 11 graded
Every race winners take
26–50 of 616
- PendingJessica AndersonRace Winners2026 season
I don't think anyone will be surprised when Susan Collins wins.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Oct 1, 2026 - PendingJessica AndersonRace Winners2026 season
I think people are cautious about whether or not he can pull it off. And I think he can. And I think that's one that will surprise.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Oct 1, 2026 - PendingLisa BootheRace Winners2026 season
I think the Republicans will end up just voting down ballot and we'll bring him like, you know, obviously he's going to underperform here. Abbott, but I think he will end up pulling it off.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Oct 1, 2026 - PendingG. Elliott MorrisRace Winners2026 season
And then Maine and Ohio are leaning more towards the Democrats than other, Republican held seats, so I've put them in that bucket, that first bucket of likely in lane seats.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Oct 1, 2026 - PendingG. Elliott MorrisRace Winners2026 season
And then Maine and Ohio are leaning more towards the Democrats than other, Republican held seats, so I've put them in that bucket, that first bucket of likely in lane seats.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Oct 1, 2026 - PendingG. Elliott MorrisRace Winners2026 season
seats that look likely to flip, lean or likely to flip from Republican to Democrat. That would be North Carolina, which is, you know, seeming like a sure thing according to our forecast... that one looks like a pretty good lock.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Oct 1, 2026 Tallarico's doing a fine job with this campaign, and ... I predict that he's gonna be the next...
- PendingJames BrooksRace Winners2026 season
if the election were held today, Peltola would win, but it's still more than a month off ... It seems unlikely that things would change significantly between now and election day
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Oct 1, 2026 - PendingGalen DrukeRace Winners2026 season
Plus, it seems like a democrat might be poised to win the Governor's Mansion for the first time in the state since 1998.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Oct 1, 2026 It's very interesting in Minnesota, a very tight race in Minnesota... So it would be very surprising if Michelle Tafoya won that
And Mary Patola, for all Democrats' hopes, wishes, and dreams, She's been burning money pretty quickly... But I wouldn't be surprised if he pulls it out.
and he's going to win in Georgia very likely by a big number
Republicans are likely to win in New Hampshire and Vermont again.
Republicans are likely to win in New Hampshire and Vermont again.
No, no, no, no. I think he's going to win the Senate seat.
Right now, I think the GOP is going to lose both North Carolina and Ohio
Right now, I think the GOP is going to lose both North Carolina and Ohio
I think the GOP keeps Texas.
but I think they'll pick up Michigan
- PendingChuck ToddRace Winners2026 season
I happen to think they're going to beat Paxton.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 30, 2026 - PendingChuck ToddRace Winners2026 season
I happen to think they're going to beat Paxton.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 30, 2026 - PendingChuck ToddRace Winners2026 season
My guess is they come up a little short with Abbott, but let's say Abbott loses. ... he's still the favorite to win, but he might lose.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 30, 2026 - PendingChuck ToddRace Winners2026 season
And I really think the reason Greg Abbott might lose, he's still the favorite to win, but he might lose... My guess is they come up a little short with Abbott
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 30, 2026 She's gonna get, reelected, though. Don't you think, Tom? Yeah. Sure. Okay. I mean There is that. Arkansas.
- PendingAndrew WalworthRace Winners2026 season
She's gonna get, reelected, though. Don't you think, Tom? Yeah. Sure. Okay. I mean There is that. Arkansas.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 29, 2026
By topic
US Elections — race winners (466 graded)
Topics we cover today: NFL, US Elections. Every kind of prediction belongs to one of them; this page sits above the topic so that adding another does not mean rewriting every link.