Race Winners
Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.
- Takes logged
- 631
- Graded
- 462
- Average accuracy
- 76.6
- Pundits
- 105
73% settled
out of 100
have made one
How these calls land
Takes in each band
Settled or waiting
462 / 631
graded
169 still pending
By season
- 2024462 of 464 graded
- 20260 of 167 graded
Who is good at race winners
- Doug Schoen100 accuracy · 2 graded+102.0
- Domenico Montanaro100 accuracy · 2 graded+102.0
- Douglas Wilson100 accuracy · 1 graded+102.0
- Ghad Saad100 accuracy · 1 graded+102.0
- AB Stoddard100 accuracy · 1 graded+102.0
- Ryan Girdusky100 accuracy · 1 graded+102.0
- David Beard100 accuracy · 2 graded+101.0
- Hugh Hewitt100 accuracy · 2 graded+101.0
- Stu Burguiere100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Wosny Lambre100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Stephen L. Miller100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Steve Deace Show100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Bill O'Reilly100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Francesca Fiorentini100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Selena Zito100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Carol Markowitz100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- Michael Knowles100 accuracy · 1 graded+101.0
- David Frum100 accuracy · 2 graded+100.0
- Bob Vander Plaats100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Michael Duncan100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Elizabeth Stauffer100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Mehdi Hasan100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Steve Kornacki100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0
- Steve Bannon100 accuracy · 5 graded+89.2
- Brent Buchanan92 accuracy · 7 graded+84.5
- Buck Sexton100 accuracy · 12 graded+84.1
- Steve Deace93 accuracy · 18 graded+84.0
- Newt Gingrich83 accuracy · 5 graded+83.3
- Megyn Kelly100 accuracy · 10 graded+82.2
- Ben Shapiro87 accuracy · 30 graded+81.7
- Isaac Saul80 accuracy · 14 graded+80.4
- Daniel Horowitz75 accuracy · 3 graded+76.0
- Cenk Uygur100 accuracy · 4 graded+75.8
- Spencer Kimball75 accuracy · 8 graded+75.4
- Clay Travis98 accuracy · 24 graded+70.5
- Erick-Woods Erickson93 accuracy · 24 graded+69.2
- Scott Rasmussen100 accuracy · 3 graded+68.0
- Ryan Grim67 accuracy · 5 graded+67.3
- Nate Silver63 accuracy · 5 graded+63.1
- Tom Bevan100 accuracy · 4 graded+51.0
- Sam Wang75 accuracy · 8 graded+50.0
- David Axelrod100 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Henry Olsen100 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Michael Cohen100 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Justin Robert Young100 accuracy · 5 graded+44.4
- Saagar Enjeti76 accuracy · 14 graded+40.9
- Carl Cannon100 accuracy · 10 graded+37.5
- Bill Scher56 accuracy · 9 graded+34.0
- Seth Keshel100 accuracy · 9 graded+33.3
- Harrison Lavelle100 accuracy · 3 graded+33.3
- Emily Jashinsky33 accuracy · 3 graded+33.3
- Sean Spicer81 accuracy · 15 graded+30.7
- Robby Soave75 accuracy · 7 graded+25.0
- Kirk Bado75 accuracy · 4 graded+25.0
- Tim Miller27 accuracy · 10 graded+20.2
- Josh Holmes100 accuracy · 5 graded+20.2
- Lakshya Jain41 accuracy · 47 graded+14.9
- David Pakman75 accuracy · 15 graded+9.0
- David Nir100 accuracy · 9 graded+0.0
- Jeff Singer100 accuracy · 7 graded+0.0
- Nathan Gonzales92 accuracy · 7 graded+0.0
- Mike Murphy0 accuracy · 4 graded+0.0
- Logan Phillips25 accuracy · 3 graded+0.0
- Max McCall50 accuracy · 2 graded+0.0
- Jon Favreau100 accuracy · 2 graded+0.0
- Bill Kristol0 accuracy · 2 graded+0.0
- Simon Rosenberg0 accuracy · 2 graded+0.0
- James Carville0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Jon Lovett0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- John Heilemann0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Gabe Fleisher0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Sean Trende100 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Dave Weigel100 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Lanny Davis0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- John Ashbrook100 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Liz Cheney0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Nomiki Konst0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Andrew Heaton0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- David Shuster0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Mariel Garza100 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Tom LoBianco0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Mark McKinnon0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Phil Wegman100 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0
- Krystal Ball60 accuracy · 14 graded-4.2
- Jacob Rubashkin68 accuracy · 11 graded-5.3
- Rising (The Hill)0 accuracy · 3 graded-66.7
- Tommy Vietor0 accuracy · 1 graded-102.0
provisionalRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.
By publisher
- The NPR Politics Podcast100.0 · 2 graded
- Honestly with Bari Weiss100.0 · 1 graded
- The Dispatch Podcast100.0 · 1 graded
- Steve Deace Show94.4 · 27 graded
- The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show98.3 · 40 graded
- The Ben Shapiro Show85.5 · 37 graded
- Tangle (podcast)73.6 · 12 graded
- Erick Erickson newsletter (Substack)93.0 · 24 graded
- The Young Turks75.0 · 8 graded
- Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova62.5 · 5 graded
- The Megyn Kelly Show84.5 · 34 graded
- Newt's World86.1 · 23 graded
- RealClearPolitics Podcast94.4 · 19 graded
- The Downballot (podcast)100.0 · 9 graded
- Tangle (newsletter)75.0 · 6 graded
- Princeton Election Consortium (Sam Wang)75.0 · 8 graded
- Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar73.0 · 41 graded
- The Bulwark Podcast (feed title: The Bulwark Daily)43.3 · 16 graded
- Politics Politics Politics (Justin Robert Young)62.2 · 22 graded
- Ruthless Podcast100.0 · 8 graded
- Split Ticket66.2 · 50 graded
- The David Pakman Show75.0 · 15 graded
- The Inside Elections Podcast85.3 · 20 graded
- Hacks On Tap11.1 · 7 graded
- The Downballot (newsletter)100.0 · 9 graded
- Face the Nation transcripts (CBS News)0.0 · 1 graded
- Pod Save America50.0 · 6 graded
- Rising (The Hill)41.7 · 11 graded
Every race winners take
276–300 of 631
Only one Democratic incumbent is at a slight disadvantage (despite a titanic fundraising edge): Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-03).
Our model sees this race as Safe Democratic.
Arizona is the one state that seems like the safest bet for Trump
Because Trump, I think is very unlikely to actually lose Iowa, but, you know, Iowa correlates with Wisconsin, some other states.
Bernie Marino, next Senator from the great state of Ohio, will join us at one thirty.
And like res Island New Way, the fire storm when we win will be as bad as if we lost. And people just have to gird yourself for this.
West Virginia is a pickup... West Virginia is a win.
She's going to win in my home state of Tennessee. She deserves to win for being right on so many things during her career.
they know that I've been saying four months without fail, Yes, he's going to win... But I think Trump's gonna win.
Bernie Marino is with us. We are confident he is going to win.
I think this is gonna be a convincing win, tomorrow night. ... he looks like he's gonna win the popular vote, and he's gonna win probably most of those key states.
I would not be concerned about West Virginia. There's no chance the state will swing blue.
I could give you all the the data and trends why I believe we're gonna win tomorrow. I do think Trump is going to win. I think we're gonna win tomorrow.
Well, I think we're gonna win Pennsylvania. I really do. But Pennsylvania is a heavy lift.
understood six weeks into there how and why Kamala Harris was gonna lose
And Carolina's gonna be tough. We have to really represent tomorrow, to win. I think we can. I think we will
Oh, I think she's gonna win. I will predict it with low to medium confidence now. I've gone from no confidence to low to medium.
I I think it it it is more likely than not that he wins Georgia and North Carolina.
I I think it it it is more likely than not that he wins Georgia and North Carolina.
Well, I'm probably with you, Mike. I'm probably with you about that, Mike.
I think Harris is gonna win. I do think there's a bit of a late break... So I think the Carys wins, and I think we know the winner by basically no...
that augers almost certainly well for Wisconsin. I I mean, Seltzer would have to be way off for Wisconsin to be wrong, to be, you know, out of Harris's column.
Further, the most important economic indicator of all, the right track, wrong track poll favors a Trump victory.
Based on information I had two weeks ago, I predicted that Trump would win the election but lose Pennsylvania... I'm also not feeling so moved to abandon my initial call. I still think Trump just has more paths to the presidency electorally and so I'm hanging tight for the final forty eight hours.
I predicted that Trump would win the election but lose Pennsylvania.
By topic
US Elections — race winners (462 graded)
Topics we cover today: NFL, US Elections. Every kind of prediction belongs to one of them; this page sits above the topic so that adding another does not mean rewriting every link.